EasternUSWX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Looks like the lower level cold rushes in behind that area of precip. Still far out. We will see how it evolves. Think we can get a coating out of that at least. Better chance than this pre rain stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Looks like the lower level cold rushes in behind that area of precip. That's a bummer....looks like okay precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Still far out. We will see how it evolves. Think we can get a coating out of that at least. Better chance than this pre rain stuff. We agree on something!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 That's a bummer....looks like okay precip. Profiles show snow. http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_KIPT.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 We agree on something!!!!! If I get an inch from anything it is like a blessing. I just want more than a 5 min snow shower. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 People are talking about a pattern change to cold and snow.. I don't see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 2012 winter continues to troll us with the models. Nice front end thump dissipates into "you might see some sleet with flakes mixed in to start" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 People are talking about a pattern change to cold and snow.. I don't see it. The GOA ridge is loltastic....but where is the Greenland block? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 The GOA ridge is loltastic....but where is the Greenland block? Maybe in Feb. I think we get one storm in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I will tell you, I'm usually a NAM guy from this range, but I believe the GFS/Euro/SREFs have it right this time based on just the setup at the surface. It is a huge red flag to me when a primary low is that strong going through Ohio. These transitions to secondary lows almost always seem to take longer than expected and this primary is forecast to be stronger than most in this situation (996mb-1000mb). That should keep a decent amount of warm air pumping in and give us mainly rain. Plus, it's the winter of 2011-12, which is almost an argument against it just by itself... Yea and the track of the 850 low really kills this too, staying west of the area and keeping things warm aloft rather than getting a strong redevelopment on the coast and collapsing the column. This post frontal wave is interesting, all the 12z models have it and the European really has it. It would probably be a high end advisory event over alot of the area on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Yea and the track of the 850 low really kills this too, staying west of the area and keeping things warm aloft rather than getting a strong redevelopment on the coast and collapsing the column. This post frontal wave is interesting, all the 12z models have it and the European really has it. It would probably be a high end advisory event over alot of the area on the Euro. I'm on the Thursday night/Friday snow train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I'm on the Thursday night/Friday snow train. I give the pre rain snow a 5% chance and the frontal/low snow 10% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I'm on the Thursday night/Friday snow train. Definitely looks like our best bet at this point. One thing I know is that any snow that falls won't be gone until MLK day...looks to be brutally cold (by my standards; slightly below normal for here) this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 People are talking about a pattern change to cold and snow.. I don't see it. This futility has got to end at some point. Even the worst recent winter of 01-02 threw a bone January 6th in the form of a hard hitting C-PA nor'easter that was used in one of my Dynamic Meteo class lectures as a classic example of CSI banding over UNV. I also remember about 2 days later that the 10-12 inches of snow that fell dissappeared overnight on a raging wind and temps in the 40s. But the moral of the story is that even in a terrible winter chances are that your going to get a decent storm eventually, even if thats all she wrote for the winter. But its def becoming clear that things are going to be changing especially as we head toward the end of the month with strat warming, dive in the AO, SOI falling, etc. AO Also, check out the MJO While it generally stays within the circle, it's making that classic phase 7,8,1 run.. which is a good sign for potential storms. Getting into February is certainly starting to look good on paper, but whether or not it'll deliver is anyones guess. And i hate crapping away over half the winter waiting for things to set up to make a run, but I do like how things are looking..even as we continue to get trolled on current storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 This futility has got to end at some point. Even the worst recent winter of 01-02 threw a bone January 6th in the form of a hard hitting C-PA nor'easter that was used in one of my Dynamic Meteo class lectures as a classic example of CSI banding over UNV. I also remember about 2 days later that the 10-12 inches of snow that fell dissappeared overnight on a raging wind and temps in the 40s. But the moral of the story is that even in a terrible winter chances are that your going to get a decent storm eventually, even if thats all she wrote for the winter. But its def becoming clear that things are going to be changing especially as we head toward the end of the month with strat warming, dive in the AO, SOI falling, etc. AO Also, check out the MJO While it generally stays within the circle, it's making that classic phase 7,8,1 run.. which is a good sign for potential storms. Getting into February is certainly starting to look good on paper, but whether or not it'll deliver is anyones guess. And i hate crapping away over half the winter waiting for things to set up to make a run, but I do like how things are looking..even as we continue to get trolled on current storms. Ya I think we get one storm that delivers in Feb. Probably around mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 10/29: T 1/03: T 1/09: .3" ---------------------------- Total as of 1/09: .3" Overall mood: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 10/29: T 1/03: T 1/09: .3" ---------------------------- Total as of 1/09: .3" Overall mood: 10/29: 6.5" In ship 3.5" in Greencastle Since then a few light squalls for .3 Over all mood... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Please?? lol. Or more epic trolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Winds continue to get stronger each run as the low continue to be stronger on each run. It might be pretty bad Thursday night into Friday night. Snow squalls, wind Gust to 55, and wind chills around 0 or lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Winds continue to get stronger each run as the low continue to be stronger on each run. It might be pretty bad Thursday night into Friday night. Snow squalls, wind Gust to 55, and wind chills around 0 or lower. Ugh...thank God I'll be down south running from Atlanta to Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 GFS is nothing but torch in long range. In fact has a tropical system moving toward North Carolina. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I'm packing this winter in folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 You watch it be a cold and rainy summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 You watch it be a cold and rainy summer. Yes PLEASE! I hate heat with the passion. I would love to live in England, but not enough snow to quite lure me. They have the perfect summers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Yes PLEASE! I hate heat with the passion. I would love to live in England, but not enough snow to quite lure me. They have the perfect summers. Jolly old England has probably seen more snow than you this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Jolly old England has probably seen more snow than you this year. sadly you are probably correct Hopefully this winter doesn't end up in the record books for warmth. I must admit, i would gladly take all this torching through early March, if it ended up giving me a Superstorm 93' style! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 You watch it be a cold and rainy summer. I was thinking the same thing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 You watch it be a cold and rainy summer. Yes PLEASE! I hate heat with the passion. I would love to live in England, but not enough snow to quite lure me. They have the perfect summers. I was thinking the same thing... I couldn't find it but I saw mentioned that the early analogs point to a hot and dry summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I couldn't find it but I saw mentioned that the early analogs point to a hot and dry summer That would be terrible. I hate hot weather. I max out at 75 degrees. 80 if I have some shade and a beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I couldn't find it but I saw mentioned that the early analogs point to a hot and dry summer I had enough of that in just last July alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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