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Central PA Thread - Met. Winter 11-12 Obs/Disco


PennMan

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Early look at the text data from Euro shows that it appears everyones mainly rain this go around. AOO and UNV might have a very brief mix at beginning and IPT and AVP are the best candidates for a quick snow to rain. Checked Pit's text and noticed pressure falls to 996 out there, so it looks like the trend in the CMC, GFS, and Euro this evening is to hang onto a stronger primary. Hopefully we can get more emphasis on the secondary low on the coast, because the CAD setup should be enough to make for a more wintry scenario if the primary doesn't screw it up.

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Early look at the text data from Euro shows that it appears everyones mainly rain this go around. AOO and UNV might have a very brief mix at beginning and IPT and AVP are the best candidates for a quick snow to rain. Checked Pit's text and noticed pressure falls to 996 out there, so it looks like the trend in the CMC, GFS, and Euro this evening is to hang onto a stronger primary. Hopefully we can get more emphasis on the secondary low on the coast, because the CAD setup should be enough to make for a more wintry scenario if the primary doesn't screw it up.

No BECS over the Farm Show Complex? Dam.

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03z SREFs are out, and they are alot warmer than the 21z for C-PA. Only modest probs of 1"+ above I-80 in PA and much higher P-type probs of rain overall. Still some areas that light up with freezing rain probs, more so in the north central this run but still in the Laurels as well. Overall significance is the NAM and its cold solution are not jiving with the 03z SREF mean.

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Actually, now that I look at it, the NAM is no longer a snow event but an ice event for here. So semi cave. Ugh.

More like a sleet storm. That warm layer at 800mb is going to be a killer.

Be careful looking at precip type maps/charts.... it's best to manually check the soundings yourself. They have been misdiagnosing IP as ZR.

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More like a sleet storm. That warm layer at 800mb is going to be a killer.

Be careful looking at precip type maps/charts.... it's best to manually check the soundings yourself. They have been misdiagnosing IP as ZR.

Sorry, that's what I meant. I did that, learned how to few years ago. I call sleet storms "ice storms" but need to stop doing that, as that means to most here freezing rain.

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I will tell you, I'm usually a NAM guy from this range, but I believe the GFS/Euro/SREFs have it right this time based on just the setup at the surface. It is a huge red flag to me when a primary low is that strong going through Ohio. These transitions to secondary lows almost always seem to take longer than expected and this primary is forecast to be stronger than most in this situation (996mb-1000mb). That should keep a decent amount of warm air pumping in and give us mainly rain.

Plus, it's the winter of 2011-12, which is almost an argument against it just by itself... :lol:

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Models have the temp at 32-33

temp60.gif

be careful when using this for temperatures at night to early morning with a storm system moving though... it has been rather bad from what I have noticed in dropping overnight temps too quickly when clouds/fronts/precip keep temperatures from falling as cold

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You know it seems like every time the models show frozen precipitation for anywhere they immediately back away from that within the next run. Kinda makes you wonder if this whole 'pattern change' will even happen...

This really wasn't an ideal snow set up to begin with anyway... Sure the models flirted with the idea that temperatures could be at or below freezing but nothing else synoptically supported anything more than a couple flakes before a cold rain (wind direction at surface and aloft, track of the low inland, 540 thickness line well into New York, etc) ... I still think there may be some patchy freezing rain where temps at surface get cold enough for frozen precip but too warm aloft for snow.

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This really wasn't an ideal snow set up to begin with anyway... Sure the models flirted with the idea that temperatures could be at or below freezing but nothing else synoptically supported anything more than a couple flakes before a cold rain (wind direction at surface and aloft, track of the low inland, 540 thickness line well into New York, etc) ... I still think there may be some patchy freezing rain where temps at surface get cold enough for frozen precip but too warm aloft for snow.

Yep, and it just takes a tiny layer of above freezing air somewhere to get you sleet instead of snow.

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NAM still has thump to a bunch of rain. This snow comes in about 6hrs so it would be 1-2" per hr if it would happen. Then like an inch of rain.

12znamsnow_NE048.gif

look at 850 temps up to 12z thursday though... if NAM is on to something with that post frontal wave it is showing on 12z run then that is a much more favorable set up for some quick snow

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