hckyplayer8 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Comparing 850 temps, Euro coming in way warmer from last nights 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Early look at the text data from Euro shows that it appears everyones mainly rain this go around. AOO and UNV might have a very brief mix at beginning and IPT and AVP are the best candidates for a quick snow to rain. Checked Pit's text and noticed pressure falls to 996 out there, so it looks like the trend in the CMC, GFS, and Euro this evening is to hang onto a stronger primary. Hopefully we can get more emphasis on the secondary low on the coast, because the CAD setup should be enough to make for a more wintry scenario if the primary doesn't screw it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 euro is def warmer....looks rainy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Early look at the text data from Euro shows that it appears everyones mainly rain this go around. AOO and UNV might have a very brief mix at beginning and IPT and AVP are the best candidates for a quick snow to rain. Checked Pit's text and noticed pressure falls to 996 out there, so it looks like the trend in the CMC, GFS, and Euro this evening is to hang onto a stronger primary. Hopefully we can get more emphasis on the secondary low on the coast, because the CAD setup should be enough to make for a more wintry scenario if the primary doesn't screw it up. No BECS over the Farm Show Complex? Dam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 850's crash hard. 15-20C degree swing in 24 hrs lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Hmm well lets see what tomorrow brings. Weather models are a pain lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Well its nam vs all now...fun little change though. It made it interesting for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Well its nam vs all now...fun little change though. It made it interesting for a few hours. NAM to score the COO. lol. I wish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Haha, the Green Man episode of It's Always Sunny is on Comedy Central right now.. perfect timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 03z SREFs are out, and they are alot warmer than the 21z for C-PA. Only modest probs of 1"+ above I-80 in PA and much higher P-type probs of rain overall. Still some areas that light up with freezing rain probs, more so in the north central this run but still in the Laurels as well. Overall significance is the NAM and its cold solution are not jiving with the 03z SREF mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 models be trollin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 06 Nam caves. Model troll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 06 Nam caves. Model troll. Actually, now that I look at it, the NAM is no longer a snow event but an ice event for here. So semi cave. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Actually, now that I look at it, the NAM is no longer a snow event but an ice event for here. So semi cave. Ugh. More like a sleet storm. That warm layer at 800mb is going to be a killer. Be careful looking at precip type maps/charts.... it's best to manually check the soundings yourself. They have been misdiagnosing IP as ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 road trip to Cordova Alaska anyone, anyone?? http://ktuu.trb.com/news/photo-gallery-alaska-massive-snowfall-ktuu-20120106,0,3651785.photogallery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 More like a sleet storm. That warm layer at 800mb is going to be a killer. Be careful looking at precip type maps/charts.... it's best to manually check the soundings yourself. They have been misdiagnosing IP as ZR. Sorry, that's what I meant. I did that, learned how to few years ago. I call sleet storms "ice storms" but need to stop doing that, as that means to most here freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I will tell you, I'm usually a NAM guy from this range, but I believe the GFS/Euro/SREFs have it right this time based on just the setup at the surface. It is a huge red flag to me when a primary low is that strong going through Ohio. These transitions to secondary lows almost always seem to take longer than expected and this primary is forecast to be stronger than most in this situation (996mb-1000mb). That should keep a decent amount of warm air pumping in and give us mainly rain. Plus, it's the winter of 2011-12, which is almost an argument against it just by itself... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Models have the temp at 32-33 be careful when using this for temperatures at night to early morning with a storm system moving though... it has been rather bad from what I have noticed in dropping overnight temps too quickly when clouds/fronts/precip keep temperatures from falling as cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 You know it seems like every time the models show frozen precipitation for anywhere they immediately back away from that within the next run. Kinda makes you wonder if this whole 'pattern change' will even happen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Sorry, that's what I meant. I did that, learned how to few years ago. I call sleet storms "ice storms" but need to stop doing that, as that means to most here freezing rain. No biggie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 You know it seems like every time the models show frozen precipitation for anywhere they immediately back away from that within the next run. Kinda makes you wonder if this whole 'pattern change' will even happen... This really wasn't an ideal snow set up to begin with anyway... Sure the models flirted with the idea that temperatures could be at or below freezing but nothing else synoptically supported anything more than a couple flakes before a cold rain (wind direction at surface and aloft, track of the low inland, 540 thickness line well into New York, etc) ... I still think there may be some patchy freezing rain where temps at surface get cold enough for frozen precip but too warm aloft for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Still we can pick up something on the Post frontal wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 NAM still has thump to a bunch of rain. This snow comes in about 6hrs so it would be 1-2" per hr if it would happen. Then like an inch of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 This really wasn't an ideal snow set up to begin with anyway... Sure the models flirted with the idea that temperatures could be at or below freezing but nothing else synoptically supported anything more than a couple flakes before a cold rain (wind direction at surface and aloft, track of the low inland, 540 thickness line well into New York, etc) ... I still think there may be some patchy freezing rain where temps at surface get cold enough for frozen precip but too warm aloft for snow. Yep, and it just takes a tiny layer of above freezing air somewhere to get you sleet instead of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 NAM still has thump to a bunch of rain. This snow comes in about 6hrs so it would be 1-2" per hr if it would happen. Then like an inch of rain. look at 850 temps up to 12z thursday though... if NAM is on to something with that post frontal wave it is showing on 12z run then that is a much more favorable set up for some quick snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 look at 850 temps up to 12z thursday though... Just cold enough to start. It will be a close call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 The differences between the NAM and GFS are staggering. These models really need worked on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Temperatures is on a war path today. Up 6 degrees up in last hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Looks like a little ice/snow in mountains but, a cold rain for all. Story of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Another Blizzard for MI. Can't we get something like this to set over us?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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