MAG5035 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Clearly the 0z GFS deciding to hang onto a stronger primary is the reason this run results in a lousy solution... but the cold air damming is impressively evident. At 60 hours the 546 thickness line collapses all the way down into VA and neatly traces out the Apps. There would probably be freezing rain issues in a couple locations, specifically the north central. But hanging the 850 low west like it does allows for too much warm air intrusion aloft. I wouldn't get too bent out of shape about this yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Ugh this thread is a mess. If the earlier guidance output, i.e NAM, low initial wet bulb temperatures will allow 2m temps to drop at or a tad above freezing. Given increasing precip. rates set snow can certainly accumulate at 33-34F. Northeasterly flow will allow confluence to flow into the Appalachians and to the east. The waning 1024mb anticyclone to the north is not ideal, but given low level flow should lock in CAA for typical areas. The potential is there for initial snow down to the Mason-Dixon line along and NW of rt22. The key will be the strength and positioning of multiple vortices. This 'well it is going to be rain' talk has no scientific basis and bluntly is annoying to read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Clearly the 0z GFS deciding to hang onto a stronger primary is the reason this run results in a lousy solution... but the cold air damming is impressively evident. At 60 hours the 546 thickness line collapses all the way down into VA and neatly traces out the Apps. There would probably be freezing rain issues in a couple locations, specifically the north central. But hanging the 850 low west like it does allows for too much warm air intrusion aloft. I wouldn't get too bent out of shape about this yet. I have looked at past events like this and usually the secondary is the stronger low and models hold onto secondary too long. We shall see. Still got another day of model runs to play around with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Models have the temp at 32-33 So you go from talking about the GFS to the NAM. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 So you go from talking about the GFS to the NAM. Nice. You were saying highs of upper 30's I am showing hi res model that we are looking at overnight/early morning and temps in the lower 30's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Lets just say the GFS went from low on east coast last run at like 144 to nothing even close this run. I don't trust it AT ALL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 You were saying highs of upper 30's I am showing hi res model that we are looking at overnight/early morning and temps in the lower 30's. But I stated that the GFS run is what I believe the event should look like, synoptically speaking. You posted a GFS clown plot and I posted a reply to that. Neither posts had anything to do with a 60 hr NAM image which I (and prolly most) could give two farts about. Its a horrible model once out of its short range....which is like hr 24-36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 GFS not doing so good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 But I stated that the GFS run is what I believe the event should look like, synoptically speaking. You posted a GFS clown plot and I posted a reply to that. Neither posts had anything to do with a 60 hr NAM image which I (and prolly most) could give two farts about. Its a horrible model once out of its short range....which is like hr 24-36. GFS suck period. Almost in last place in verification. Only thing barely under it is the NOGAPS!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 GFS suck period. Almost in last place in verification. Only thing barely under it is the NOGAPS!! Wrong. LOLGAPS, GGEM, GFS, UK, ECM You're looking at the Southerm Hemisphere stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Wrong. LOLGAPS, GGEM, GFS, UK, ECM You're looking at the Southerm Hemisphere stats. No I am looking at the right thing. Higher number wins. Euro is .911 Ukmet .892 GFS .879 CMC .870 Close Nogaps.. who cares.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 No I am looking at the right thing. Higher number wins. Euro is .911 Ukmet .892 GFS .879 CMC .870 Close Nogaps.. who cares.. Yeah. Exactly as I posted. Nice back track. Thought you said the only think under it was the Navy? Whatev's I'm done fighting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Yeah. Exactly as I posted. Nice back track. Thought you said the only think under it was the Navy? Whatev's I'm done fighting. Ah Canadian is whatever as well. Close enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 my guess is quick hr of snow or mix to rain. All comes down to primary low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 ENS still colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 GGEM is snow/mix throughout the laurel's and along I80. Rain for the valleys and other areas of low elevation. Tad warmer than the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 People need to chill out. Until recently we all thought rain. If we get an inch or two be happy. Still got 48 hrs for changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Ggem warmer....I agree with eastern..in this setup every flake is a blessing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Ggem warmer....I agree with eastern..in this setup every flake is a blessing. GGEM is another one of those models on the lower scoring end. Not putting stock in that. NAM/EURO are my two models to watch tonight and already seen what nam had. If Euro is worse then ya that hurts but if not then good we are still looking ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 We should know by tomorrow evening as NAM has 850's in central VA at that time while GFS is in southern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 ya...euro is the make or break for tonight. if it warms sig. its over...which isnt a big deal since its only been a threat for 12 hours lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 ya...euro is the make or break for tonight. if it warms sig. its over...which isnt a big deal since its only been a threat for 12 hours lol. Over.. idk about that. Less of a threat sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 At this rate 1st Annual C-PA Get together might end up something like this... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4JUeDQbR-ts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 UKMET which is usually warm is not terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 At this rate 1st Annual C-PA Get together might end up something like this... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4JUeDQbR-ts :lmao: Nice. Still need to know who is all coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 As I said statistically worst model but hey look it is cold. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I call Randy Marsh! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 It better start snowing or things could get ugly. T-10 till the Euro comes in a BECS just to troll us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Guarantee euro is warm...then has epic day 7 storm that inevitably disappears lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Just drove to sheetz for some food. Currently 32 with some freezing fog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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