JamieOber Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 new Euro for UNV: THU 00Z 12-JAN 1.2 -0.9 1013 81 90 0.03 554 544 THU 06Z 12-JAN 0.1 -1.3 1009 96 100 0.20 550 544 THU 12Z 12-JAN 1.0 0.7 1003 98 99 0.35 547 544 THU 18Z 12-JAN 1.6 0.9 1000 96 82 0.16 544 545 FRI 00Z 13-JAN 3.2 -2.7 1001 94 79 0.03 539 538 IPT: THU 00Z 12-JAN 0.3 -1.4 1014 77 42 0.01 554 543 THU 06Z 12-JAN 0.1 -2.7 1010 93 100 0.12 551 543 THU 12Z 12-JAN 1.3 0.3 1004 98 98 0.27 547 544 THU 18Z 12-JAN 1.4 0.2 1000 96 98 0.19 544 545 FRI 00Z 13-JAN 1.5 -1.1 1001 99 61 0.06 541 540 Reallllly close. Would love to see other levels. The first number is 2m temps, second 850, then pressure, surface humidity, 700 humidity, qpf, hgt, thickness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 new Euro for UNV: THU 00Z 12-JAN 1.2 -0.9 1013 81 90 0.03 554 544 THU 06Z 12-JAN 0.1 -1.3 1009 96 100 0.20 550 544 THU 12Z 12-JAN 1.0 0.7 1003 98 99 0.35 547 544 THU 18Z 12-JAN 1.6 0.9 1000 96 82 0.16 544 545 FRI 00Z 13-JAN 3.2 -2.7 1001 94 79 0.03 539 538 IPT: THU 00Z 12-JAN 0.3 -1.4 1014 77 42 0.01 554 543 THU 06Z 12-JAN 0.1 -2.7 1010 93 100 0.12 551 543 THU 12Z 12-JAN 1.3 0.3 1004 98 98 0.27 547 544 THU 18Z 12-JAN 1.4 0.2 1000 96 98 0.19 544 545 FRI 00Z 13-JAN 1.5 -1.1 1001 99 61 0.06 541 540 Reallllly close. Would love to see other levels. The first number is 2m temps, second 850, then pressure, surface humidity, 700 humidity, qpf, hgt, thickness. Can you post the KMDT soundings for my pure interest? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Can you post the KMDT soundings for my pure interest? Thanks! THU 06Z 12-JAN 2.1 0.0 1008 97 98 0.16 THU 12Z 12-JAN 4.5 1.9 1000 97 95 0.39 THU 18Z 12-JAN 4.8 2.6 998 97 79 0.14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Euro snow maps shows a few inches. Even 1-3" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Euro surface temps are massively warm. Major elevation event...if its correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Euro surface temps are massively warm. Major elevation event...if its correct. It is the euro temps. Expected to be warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 It is the euro temps. Expected to be warm. Yeah. Only problem is, its on the cold side of the model scale. UKMET is a good deal warmer South of the NY/PA border and would make more sense synoptically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Yeah. Only problem is, its on the cold side of the model scale. UKMET is a good deal warmer South of the NY/PA border and would make more sense synoptically. Well we got GFS giving me 4", CMC 2", and Euro 2". And trending colder so I think we can get something out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Well we got GFS giving me 4", CMC 2", and Euro 2". And trending colder so I think we can get something out of this. GGEM PCPN Loop is all rain till you get elevated and further towards the interior? http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Whatev's. Hope we thread the needle but synoptically its not a good setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 GGEM PCPN Loop is all rain till you get elevated and further towards the interior? http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html Whatev's. Hope we thread the needle but synoptically its not a good setup. Ah that thing is always a bit warm. It is snowing in VA and MD right now. So could be a good sign for WED. Plus temps are 4 degrees under the forecast high here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Just north of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Ah that thing is always a bit warm. It is snowing in VA and MD right now. So could be a good sign for WED. Plus temps are 4 degrees under the forecast high here. Colder air in place overhead right now than what we will see Wed/Thurs. Winds out of the southeast not favorable for frozen precip as well without a cold enough air mass already in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 NAM gets even colder. Cold be miracle storm!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Colder air in place overhead right now than what we will see Wed/Thurs. Winds out of the southeast not favorable for frozen precip as well without a cold enough air mass already in place. Disagree. Think we will see enough Dynamic cooling. Models trending colder. I think what will help is models are now having a low off to west and east which lets cold air pour in between the lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Not bad. Get a little colder and it will be awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 wow.....that's a big shift to colder on the NAM. 12Z had nothing for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 We'll see. Need increased ridging to fix the winds and lock in the lower level cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Just north of DC. Yeah my buddy down near D.C (think he is in College Park) says he nearly has half an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 wow.....that's a big shift to colder on the NAM. 12Z had nothing for us. Ya a little colder and oh boy! I think the two storms help. Low to west and east lets cold air sink in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 We'll see. Need increased ridging to fix the winds and lock in the lower level cold. I am sort of surprised at the trends, for us up here anyway. Wasn't expecting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Probably won't make any difference down here in the valley though...rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Wow, central PA snow lover's nemesis Martin at the NWS has this in his Aviation part of the latest AFD: SOME DRY AIR IN PLACE FOR WED AM. SOUTHERN STORM HAS A HISTORY OF CONVECTION. THESE FACTORS...ALONG WITH STRONG UPWARD MOTION MAY MIGHT IT DROP OFF WED NIGHT TO NEAR 32...THUS PCPN TYPE COULD BE A PROBLEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I am sort of surprised at the trends, for us up here anyway. Wasn't expecting it. Don't think anyone was. But, I think if the low to the east gets a bit stronger, which is possible we will get a surprise win. I think areas from york county west have the best chance right now. Highest accums from JST to UNV. 0Z tonight will be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Wow, central PA snow lover's nemesis Martin at the NWS has this in his Aviation part of the latest AFD: SOME DRY AIR IN PLACE FOR WED AM. SOUTHERN STORM HAS A HISTORY OF CONVECTION. THESE FACTORS...ALONG WITH STRONG UPWARD MOTION MAY MIGHT IT DROP OFF WED NIGHT TO NEAR 32...THUS PCPN TYPE COULD BE A PROBLEM. Sweet. I mean all models show snow now so ya. I mean the euro has like 3"+ up that way. I'll have a first guess map tonight after 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 GFS ENS is just sick. Go look at Raleigh snow maps for gfs ens. about 80% are huge. http://raleighwx.ame...2zsnowf072.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 18Z GFS is meh but that is expected from 18Z. Precip like vanishes and the reappears this run. Dobutful. 0Z to be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 You guys are getting worked up over a cold rain. Caution. Caution! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 You guys are getting worked up over a cold rain. Caution. Caution! No. There will be some snow at the start. JB saying thumping to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 18Z not as good but, I figured that was coming. Still 1-3" area wide. Waiting for ens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Euro 925's are below 0c over most of CPA. 850's are also near or below 0c. Interesting trend today in all models. This weak front arriving tonight/tomorrow morning is a player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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