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Central PA Thread - Met. Winter 11-12 Obs/Disco


PennMan

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I just got back from running errands. Today is the kind of day I LOVE. Very overcast and cold, feels like it could snow at any minute. You see your breath when talking and everything just feels dead. A touch of snow would put a cap on things. This is what winter should always be.

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I will be seriously ill if the 0z GFS solution happens for the storm on the 12th. Perfectly tracked low, and the cold is displaced and stays right off the edge of the precip....again. Least the rest of the run is cold I guess. Euros been terrible this season, but there is one thing it has nailed all season.. and its southern stream waves with the displaced cold. European had this a couple days before GFS finally picked up on it today.

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I will be seriously ill if the 0z GFS solution happens for the storm on the 12th. Perfectly tracked low, and the cold is displaced and stays right off the edge of the precip....again. Least the rest of the run is cold I guess. Euros been terrible this season, but there is one thing it has nailed all season.. and its southern stream waves with the displaced cold. European had this a couple days before GFS finally picked up on it today.

Bank it. All we get is rain. La la la lock it in.

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I like cold too, but if it's this cold it should snow/keep snow around. It's being wasted now.

if it wasn't going to warm up this weekend it wouldn't really be wasted cold air as the ground isn't froze very deep yet and if you want snow to stick around the ground needs to freeze before the snow comes. but with the warm up coming you're right its wasted. I'm just afraid we won't be able to win this season even with a pattern shift. what I see happening after next week's big rain storm is a shift to a colder pattern where all the storms miss us to the south. (it will likely snow in the deep south during this period). then after a week or 2 of cold back to the above normal temps. with rain storms. I hope I'm wrong, but I've been through winters similar to this before and not much good comes to those of us looking for snow in the end. again, I hope I'm wrong, but this is my thoughts.

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if it wasn't going to warm up this weekend it wouldn't really be wasted cold air as the ground isn't froze very deep yet and if you want snow to stick around the ground needs to freeze before the snow comes. but with the warm up coming you're right its wasted. I'm just afraid we won't be able to win this season even with a pattern shift. what I see happening after next week's big rain storm is a shift to a colder pattern where all the storms miss us to the south. (it will likely snow in the deep south during this period). then after a week or 2 of cold back to the above normal temps. with rain storms. I hope I'm wrong, but I've been through winters similar to this before and not much good comes to those of us looking for snow in the end. again, I hope I'm wrong, but this is my thoughts.

The last couple of days has caused the ground frost front to drop, even here where we have an inch or two of snow on the ground. Those with bare ground probably has a deeper frost front.

I learned that last night when I was actually trying to dig a rutabaga out of my garden, which was like going through cement. Here it's down a fairly solid 4-5 inches, likely due to the last cold snap and the previous one.

One thing, it really does help to have a cold day or two prior to a snow to help it stick around. You really only need a few inches for that.

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I will be seriously ill if the 0z GFS solution happens for the storm on the 12th. Perfectly tracked low, and the cold is displaced and stays right off the edge of the precip....again. Least the rest of the run is cold I guess. Euros been terrible this season, but there is one thing it has nailed all season.. and its southern stream waves with the displaced cold. European had this a couple days before GFS finally picked up on it today.

I think the really interesting part is how deep the storm gets without any northern branch energy. That is a ferocious southern stream system - imagine what it would look like if there was some phasing.

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93?

I prefer not to be trolled by a run like that lol.

12z Canadian shows what happens if it does at least partially phase - still a rainstorm for us. Given the setup and how fast the southern branch trough tilts negative, there is almost no foreseeable way we can get anything good out of it besides rain. If it phases, it's probably a lakes cutter. If it stays separate, it just doesn't look like we have the cold air.

Someone should get a heck of a storm out of this.

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Anybody know what area has the least amount of snow from departure so far? For a while Rochester had less than 2" when they normally had like 30" or so. Anyone know who's seriously taking it on the chin?

Surprisingly, MDT is only a bit below average because of the October storm.

UNV should be at around 12 but we are at 5.1

IPT should be around 10.5 but are only at 2.0

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Oh, yeah, I know we aren't much below average at all - wasn't implying we are. I'm not complaining about the lack of snow at all because a) we knew this year wouldn't be great and B) complaining is a waste of energy. :)

The UNV and IPT numbers aren't terrible to me either, really, when you compare to some of the LES areas that hadn't received anything until perhaps this past Monday.

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Oh, yeah, I know we aren't much below average at all - wasn't implying we are. I'm not complaining about the lack of snow at all because a) we knew this year wouldn't be great and B) complaining is a waste of energy. :)

The UNV and IPT numbers aren't terrible to me either, really, when you compare to some of the LES areas that hadn't received anything until perhaps this past Monday.

No, I was implying you were implying (er, what?), I was actually really surprised at MDT. I was curious myself.

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Anybody know what area has the least amount of snow from departure so far? For a while Rochester had less than 2" when they normally had like 30" or so. Anyone know who's seriously taking it on the chin?

Without a doubt, imo..when you look at the big picture I think the folks that are really taking it on the chin is the LES cities like Buffalo, Syracuse and Rochester. Cuse is at 12.3", Rochester has 7.2", and Buffalo is at 5.2"....FOR THE SEASON to date. These guys should be around approx 35-45 inches at this point. And thats after the LES a couple days ago. So to put that in perspective... thanks to the October snowstorm H-burg is beating Buffalo and hanging just behind Rochester. Consider the fact that these three cities typically don't take direct shots from classic northeast snowstorms and they have a tall order to get back to some semblance of normal. The lakes also get less favorable for big time LES as the season wears on, so they're running out of time to start making a major comeback. Down here, we're still a major pattern change and a couple decent storms away from getting things on track. The signs of a big pattern change are def showing up, whether that can deliver some good storms is debatable. It def doesn't appear it's going to get started with the 1/12 event, thats for sure.

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