Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Central PA Thread - Met. Winter 11-12 Obs/Disco


PennMan

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

After last nights half hour assault and some more B.S snow showers throughout the day, have nearly 3 inches on the ground. Certainly an overachiever for LES standards down here off the Allegheny front. For pictorial evidence see page 20 posts 693 & 698. Nice crisp winter day, temps never out of the teens and not too bad of a breeze. Now thats a lil bit more like winter.

This next storm threat (9th/10th) is intriguing, as it kinda came out of nowhere in the last 24 hours. I had been watching the Euro for a couple days with a cutoff looking southern wave taking it up the coast in the 200+ timeframe, so really was kinda writing it off as there was no other model support. More on that in a min. Do kinda like what i see at this point assuming the storm sticks, we have the GFS a bit supressed and the European would suggest that even our eastern folks in here could see snow. We'll have to keep an eye on this event..but it's going to have to earn being worth a discussion topic by actually delivering. With that said, before we douse this with too much hater-ade..we do have this:

post-1507-0-90550300-1325628290.gif

This could be the best NAO forecast i've seen all winter unbelievably, and the sharp drop occurs around when this potential event is progged. If the NAO was forecast to remain in its current state, I would be sounding the alarm for this to do what the last 2-3 events have done. However... if we indeed have it at neutral or a hair negative, that could put it right on the coast and thus the chance for finally a decent event. Back to the other event near the 12th, the GFS has it today in the fashion the euro had it with southern energy lurking and then making for another event.. but with somewhat displaced cold. Euros a bit colder. Once again the NAO is still forecast to be neutral/slightly negative, so we'll see. Like i said yesterday, things are looking better as we go forward. The PNA could be a potential key to cold and storminess, as it still is forecast to drop sort of negative, but not as negative as i saw yesterday save for a few members. A stronger -PNA could put us on the wrong side of thermal gradient lifted up by a southeast ridge, while a weaker/neutral one coupled with a more favorable NAO would at least keep things seasonably cold and offer a decent chance for snow events.

Nice disco and whole heartily agree.

Large swings in the NAO have proven breeding grounds for cyclonic activity.

Hopefully we can get the Pac to work with us.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I measured 2.5 just now.

Currently 11.2. With a fresh snowpack, could get pretty low.

Yea they're gonna drop like a rock, dewpoints are within a couple degrees either side of zero at AOO (1), UNV (1), and JST (-2). I'd look for temps under 5 at our locales if winds slack off enough. 11.9ºF here.

Another thing about later this month, saw this tweeted by Bastardi.

Last weeks CFS week 4 vs this weeks CFS week 3 for Jan 17-23... pretty lol-worthy.

post-1507-0-04349700-1325637093.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Agreed, the mets over in the New England thread have had some good discussion about those two teleconnections. Hopefully it stays out of those terrible phases 4,5. And yea, it could only get better haha. How much snow did you end up with up there?

Interesting. From my limited knowledge with the mjo, we do well in 8, 1 and 2.

Hard to get a measurement here. It's still blowing around like crazy. I would estimate 5 or 6. Getting a few reports tonight of around a foot in southwestern Somco.

The weekend looks interesting like you said earlier. Hopefully we'll be on the right side of that frontal wave when it slides through. (at least back in our part of the state there's some hope)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Waiting for the final frame, but Ukie looks like its gonna side with the GFS.

System comes through a bit faster but has a very identical track...out in the middle of nowhere.

Ukie been way ots. But who cares. Who wants snow anyway...... :whistle:

Anyone going out to freeze tonight and watch the meteor shower? lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Down to 2.2 overnight but bumped up to 9 due to clouds.

Bad news, the GFS has gone from out to sea to a slow moving storm with rain for most of us for middle of next week.

Good news, a lot of forecasters on here seem more encouraging about a possible improved pattern. Noting that from browsing around this am.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Went outside for meteor shower for about 5 mins and called it quits. lol. 10.7 degrees.

:lol:

Yeah it was pretty cold. I bundled up enough to stay out for about 15 minutes and managed to see 10 meteors. 2 of them were really nice.

We dropped to 8.8° this morning.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...