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Central PA Thread - Met. Winter 11-12 Obs/Disco


PennMan

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Euro getting bigger for weekend storm. Mountains and NE smashed this run. Still a bit warm for the central/SE. But it is trending in the right direction with deepening the low quicker.

when we re-picked dates for the 1st snow, i think i picked January 7th (my B-Day) lock it now!

Its a little chilly to be outside working with Steel. 27 and with the winds gusts going right through me.

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After last nights half hour assault and some more B.S snow showers throughout the day, have nearly 3 inches on the ground. Certainly an overachiever for LES standards down here off the Allegheny front. For pictorial evidence see page 20 posts 693 & 698. Nice crisp winter day, temps never out of the teens and not too bad of a breeze. Now thats a lil bit more like winter.

This next storm threat (9th/10th) is intriguing, as it kinda came out of nowhere in the last 24 hours. I had been watching the Euro for a couple days with a cutoff looking southern wave taking it up the coast in the 200+ timeframe, so really was kinda writing it off as there was no other model support. More on that in a min. Do kinda like what i see at this point assuming the storm sticks, we have the GFS a bit supressed and the European would suggest that even our eastern folks in here could see snow. We'll have to keep an eye on this event..but it's going to have to earn being worth a discussion topic by actually delivering. With that said, before we douse this with too much hater-ade..we do have this:

post-1507-0-90550300-1325628290.gif

This could be the best NAO forecast i've seen all winter unbelievably, and the sharp drop occurs around when this potential event is progged. If the NAO was forecast to remain in its current state, I would be sounding the alarm for this to do what the last 2-3 events have done. However... if we indeed have it at neutral or a hair negative, that could put it right on the coast and thus the chance for finally a decent event. Back to the other event near the 12th, the GFS has it today in the fashion the euro had it with southern energy lurking and then making for another event.. but with somewhat displaced cold. Euros a bit colder. Once again the NAO is still forecast to be neutral/slightly negative, so we'll see. Like i said yesterday, things are looking better as we go forward. The PNA could be a potential key to cold and storminess, as it still is forecast to drop sort of negative, but not as negative as i saw yesterday save for a few members. A stronger -PNA could put us on the wrong side of thermal gradient lifted up by a southeast ridge, while a weaker/neutral one coupled with a more favorable NAO would at least keep things seasonably cold and offer a decent chance for snow events.

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After last nights half hour assault and some more B.S snow showers throughout the day, have nearly 3 inches on the ground. Certainly an overachiever for LES standards down here off the Allegheny front. For pictorial evidence see page 20 posts 693 & 698. Nice crisp winter day, temps never out of the teens and not too bad of a breeze. Now thats a lil bit more like winter.

This next storm threat (9th/10th) is intriguing, as it kinda came out of nowhere in the last 24 hours. I had been watching the Euro for a couple days with a cutoff looking southern wave taking it up the coast in the 200+ timeframe, so really was kinda writing it off as there was no other model support. More on that in a min. Do kinda like what i see at this point assuming the storm sticks, we have the GFS a bit supressed and the European would suggest that even our eastern folks in here could see snow. We'll have to keep an eye on this event..but it's going to have to earn being worth a discussion topic by actually delivering. With that said, before we douse this with too much hater-ade..we do have this:

post-1507-0-90550300-1325628290.gif

This could be the best NAO forecast i've seen all winter unbelievably, and the sharp drop occurs around when this potential event is progged. If the NAO was forecast to remain in its current state, I would be sounding the alarm for this to do what the last 2-3 events have done. However... if we indeed have it at neutral or a hair negative, that could put it right on the coast and thus the chance for finally a decent event. Back to the other event near the 12th, the GFS has it today in the fashion the euro had it with southern energy lurking and then making for another event.. but with somewhat displaced cold. Euros a bit colder. Once again the NAO is still forecast to be neutral/slightly negative, so we'll see. Like i said yesterday, things are looking better as we go forward. The PNA could be a potential key to cold and storminess, as it still is forecast to drop sort of negative, but not as negative as i saw yesterday save for a few members. A stronger -PNA could put us on the wrong side of thermal gradient lifted up by a southeast ridge, while a weaker/neutral one coupled with a more favorable NAO would at least keep things seasonably cold and offer a decent chance for snow events.

I really like the way things are looking over the next several weeks. The other (and perhaps bigger) players are the EPO and MJO. I think those may be the ones to watch, perhaps "forcing" a -nao and a less negative pna.

It's gotta be better than where we've been, right? ;)

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I really like the way things are looking over the next several weeks. The other (and perhaps bigger) players are the EPO and MJO. I think those may be the ones to watch, perhaps "forcing" a -nao and a less negative pna.

It's gotta be better than where we've been, right? ;)

Agreed, the mets over in the New England thread have had some good discussion about those two teleconnections. Hopefully it stays out of those terrible phases 4,5. And yea, it could only get better haha. How much snow did you end up with up there?

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