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Central PA Thread - Met. Winter 11-12 Obs/Disco


PennMan

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On the get-together, I am in a central place and certainly have no prob driving anywhere. I know Lewistown was mentioned but I don't know what sort of places are there for us to meet at....I also don't want to shut anyone out due to distance, like Williamsport or Clearfield.

Should we make a thread about it to make it easier and so people know it is just for that?

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MAG, that squall dropping through Clearfield County looks promising.

Yea we are watching the flow starting to realign to the more northwesterly trajectory. Should eventually see some better bands set up tonight and we shall see how it goes. Given the potential for a Huron connected band or two to show itself we could see a couple particular areas off the Laurels that might get into something decent.

Also while i'm at it, might as well say a couple words about the longer range. The NAO is forecast to not only neutralize, but actually dip a bit into negative territory as per the GEFS. The PNA is also forecast to go negative as well though, which could force southeast ridging of some magnitude. Overall, things appear to be looking better as we go forward. Def not a torch temp wise, but instead of longer periods of warm weather with a few days of cold, its starting to appear more of the other way around. Storm threats are still sparse, I'm not jumping on the late period Euro storm. It's been insistent the last few runs on yet another one of those southern stream waves with either a just barely snow event or today.. displaced cold to the nw and a storm moving up the coast.

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From CTP

A BIT OF A HURON

CONNECTIONS IS BEGINNING AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME STRONGER/BETTER

OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG S/WV PUSHES ACROSS LK HURON AND WRN LK ERIE

LATER TONIGHT. MOST MDL FCST PUT THE BEST LLVL INSTAB AND LIFT IN

A WIDE CHANNEL FROM KCLE TO N OF KPIT TO KJST. IN THE PVA AHEAD

OF THE WAVE...THE LIFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED. THEREFORE...THE MOST-

INTENSE SNOW SHOULD OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST PART

OF TUES.

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Winter storm watches up for the Laurels counties of Cambria and Somerset.. something i'm not surprised about given the significant cold shot over the warm lakes coupled with the very deep low progged to reside north of the lakes (near 980 mbs). The usual suspects in the Laurels I would imagine will be seeing over 6 inches of snow in those first couple days this coming week.

I found the winter storm watch statement itself kinda interesting,

A 36 hour duration 2-4 inch winter storm watch?? The futility of the winter to this point must be lowering the standards haha . At any rate, I personally expect that most folks in the Laurels will be seeing at least a 4-8 inch type event and perhaps a good bit more in the specific areas that usually capitalize on the LES/upslope. I think advisories will likely go up for most of the west (Pit NWS area at least at and above the US 422 corridor) and then counties in CTP like Clearfield, Elk, Cameron, etc. This is one of those situations where I would not be surprised to see advisories and/or actual advisory type snow make it into the tier of counties immediately adjacent to the laurels within any decent bands of snow.

CTP is about to where I anticipated headline placement a few days ago, finally adding advisories in those north central counties filling the gap between the laurels and the NW LES warnings. Also, possible upgrade to warnings in the Laurels mentioned in the afd and certainly looks probable given their latest snowfall forecast.

post-1507-0-96990100-1325558302.png

Should get pretty feisty in the west and central (west of 99 corridor) as the night wears on and that shortwave drops down. CCX Radar already starting to fill some in Blair, Cambria, and even Huntingdon counties. Regional radar pretty fascinating as you can see how long the fetch is on some of these bands of snow.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/centgrtlakes_loop.php

The band nosing towards PIttsburgh has a Superior->Michigan->Erie connection while the less organized stuff lurking just above the I-79/I-80 junction could be an area to watch for a Huron connected band to get established. That also translates a bit down to where the increased echoes are starting in the JST/AOO region

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CTP is about to where I anticipated headline placement a few days ago, finally adding advisories in those north central counties filling the gap between the laurels and the NW LES warnings. Also, possible upgrade to warnings in the Laurels mentioned in the afd and certainly looks probable given their latest snowfall forecast.

post-1507-0-96990100-1325558302.png

Should get pretty feisty in the west and central (west of 99 corridor) as the night wears on and that shortwave drops down. CCX Radar already starting to fill some in Blair, Cambria, and even Huntingdon counties. Regional radar pretty fascinating as you can see how long the fetch is on some of these bands of snow.

http://radar.weather...tlakes_loop.php

The band nosing towards PIttsburgh has a Superior->Michigan->Erie connection while the less organized stuff lurking just above the I-79/I-80 junction could be an area to watch for a Huron connected band to get established. That also translates a bit down to where the increased echoes are starting in the JST/AOO region

Think I can pick up a band or two later tonight into tomorrow? Looks like CTP now has me at like .6"

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Think I can pick up a band or two later tonight into tomorrow? Looks like CTP now has me at like .6"

Something could potentially sneak down that way, a Huron connected band will penetrate pretty far southeast so certainly couldn't rule out something that may drop a quick coating to an inch. Will have to see how things set up.

In the meantime, very heavy snowband set to drop over I-80 near the Snowshoe area in particular and overall the stretch of 80 between Clearfield and Milesburg. This is highlighted by an SPS. Warnings now up for Cambria/Somerset with 4-8" additional for totals of 8-12" with scattered higher amounts. Here's the newest PNS statement.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=PNSCTP

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