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Central PA Thread - Met. Winter 11-12 Obs/Disco


PennMan

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Euro's LE banding is pretty darn widespread. Low wind speed/shear and moist mid levels argue for flurries/snow showers to make it to the turnpike.

Indeed. This should be a pretty decent event Sunday night through Tuesday night. With limited shear, squalls should make it well inland. Areas west of I-99/Rt 220 will get hit pretty good.

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Winter storm watches up for the Laurels counties of Cambria and Somerset.. something i'm not surprised about given the significant cold shot over the warm lakes coupled with the very deep low progged to reside north of the lakes (near 980 mbs). The usual suspects in the Laurels I would imagine will be seeing over 6 inches of snow in those first couple days this coming week.

I found the winter storm watch statement itself kinda interesting,

/O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0010.120102T0600Z-120104T0000Z/

CAMBRIA-SOMERSET-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSTOWN...SOMERSET

1250 PM EST SAT DEC 31 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH

TUESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH

TUESDAY EVENING.

* LOCATIONS...THE ALLEGHENY AND LAUREL MOUNTAINS.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW

* ACCUMULATIONS....2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL CAUSE LIMITED VISIBILITIES AND SLIPPERY

TRAVEL. PREVIOUSLY WET ROADWAYS MAY BECOME ICY. STRONG WIND

GUSTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL FURTHER REDUCE VISIBILITIES WITH SNOW

AND BLOWING SNOW.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S.

* VISIBILITIES...BELOW A HALF MILE IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT

SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. STAY

TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER

INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO

BE FOUND AT...WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE.

A 36 hour duration 2-4 inch winter storm watch?? The futility of the winter to this point must be lowering the standards haha . At any rate, I personally expect that most folks in the Laurels will be seeing at least a 4-8 inch type event and perhaps a good bit more in the specific areas that usually capitalize on the LES/upslope. I think advisories will likely go up for most of the west (Pit NWS area at least at and above the US 422 corridor) and then counties in CTP like Clearfield, Elk, Cameron, etc. This is one of those situations where I would not be surprised to see advisories and/or actual advisory type snow make it into the tier of counties immediately adjacent to the laurels within any decent bands of snow.

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Winter storm watches up for the Laurels counties of Cambria and Somerset.. something i'm not surprised about given the significant cold shot over the warm lakes coupled with the very deep low progged to reside north of the lakes (near 980 mbs). The usual suspects in the Laurels I would imagine will be seeing over 6 inches of snow in those first couple days this coming week.

I found the winter storm watch statement itself kinda interesting,

A 36 hour duration 2-4 inch winter storm watch?? The futility of the winter to this point must be lowering the standards haha . At any rate, I personally expect that most folks in the Laurels will be seeing at least a 4-8 inch type event and perhaps a good bit more in the specific areas that usually capitalize on the LES/upslope. I think advisories will likely go up for most of the west (Pit NWS area at least at and above the US 422 corridor) and then counties in CTP like Clearfield, Elk, Cameron, etc. This is one of those situations where I would not be surprised to see advisories and/or actual advisory type snow make it into the tier of counties immediately adjacent to the laurels within any decent bands of snow.

I agree. We are talking a high ratio event. 2-4 is good if its only going to snow for an hour or so per spot...

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Guess it's worth mentioning that given the wind aspect of this storm system, the Steelers/Browns game being played in Cleveland tomorrow afternoon ought to be a blast with the 50+ gusts in the forecast up there.

that makes me a little nervous as our running game isnt what it used to be & with 50mph gusts it could really affect the passing / kicking game.

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Happy new year everyone!

Heres CTP's snowmap for the LES/upslope event just updated about 20 min ago.

post-1507-0-70109300-1325430583.png

Blair and Northern Centre/Clinton/Lycoming look like potential candidates for an advisory area (2-4 variety) that is further southeast than usual for these type of events... something I mentioned as a possibility when i posted yesterday. Duration of the accumulations could be too long to meet criteria, though. The rest of the north central where Potter resides should be good to go with an advisory type snowfall when this is all set and done.

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Happy new year everyone!

Heres CTP's snowmap for the LES/upslope event just updated about 20 min ago.

post-1507-0-70109300-1325430583.png

Blair and Northern Centre/Clinton/Lycoming look like potential candidates for an advisory area (2-4 variety) that is further southeast than usual for these type of events... something I mentioned as a possibility when i posted yesterday. Duration of the accumulations could be too long to meet criteria, though. The rest of the north central where Potter resides should be good to go with an advisory type snowfall when this is all set and done.

i like that ( 4"+)...now we just need to make it happen.

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Seems like CTP does not account for the threat of snow showers east of the Alleghany Plateau which are definitely likely given the long fetch and traditional northwest flow. It would not surprise me if areas down towards Lewistown, Raystown Lake, Lock Haven, and State College see spotty 1-2in amounts. Also guidance indicates the potential for a 322 band towards Tuesday night as bands consolidate.

Snow.png

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