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Central PA Thread - Met. Winter 11-12 Obs/Disco

PennMan

By PennMan,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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JamieOber

JamieOber

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Yep, I got down to 15.7°F. Might as well enjoy it before the torch resumes sad.png

Out of curiosity I viewed the entire 06z GFS this morning...it's not for the faint of heart, that's for sure. I may have lost track of the number of lakes cutters.

I hit 16.1. I think it finally did in some of my greens in the garden except for tatsoi, which can take temps down to 15. Ground's froze pretty good.

JB and LC are sort of fired up about a +PNA showing up on models around Xmas. Not sure what to think. I don't know if they are thinking a 93-94 kind of deal. You guys would have had a **** fit that winter until Xmas - nothing until Christmas, then fun fun fun. In fact, I remember that for the arctic front Xmas night that brought a surprise 1-2" in 30 minutes, never forget looking out the window at S+ at my parents, and the shock on people's faces. Roads were complete disaster; it took my one aunt 3 1/2 hours to get from the north end of York near the Parkway Projects where I grew up to freaking Lewisberry due to extremely icy roads and blocked roads due to the tons of accidents.

The Euro is much more optimistic than the GFS:

If Wes is feeling better, than we all should.

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PennMan

PennMan

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I hit 16.1. I think it finally did in some of my greens in the garden except for tatsoi, which can take temps down to 15. Ground's froze pretty good.

JB and LC are sort of fired up about a +PNA showing up on models around Xmas. Not sure what to think. I don't know if they are thinking a 93-94 kind of deal. You guys would have had a **** fit that winter until Xmas - nothing until Christmas, then fun fun fun. In fact, I remember that for the arctic front Xmas night that brought a surprise 1-2" in 30 minutes, never forget looking out the window at S+ at my parents, and the shock on people's faces. Roads were complete disaster; it took my one aunt 3 1/2 hours to get from the north end of York near the Parkway Projects where I grew up to freaking Lewisberry due to extremely icy roads and blocked roads due to the tons of accidents.

The Euro is much more optimistic than the GFS: http://www.americanw...ost__p__1183521

If Wes is feeling better, than we all should.

Definitely. Even a slightly positive post from Wes makes me feel better about the upcoming pattern.

I could see a less-crazy version of 93-94...maybe a month of good cold and winter weather instead of constant snow and ice from Christmas to the first week of March.

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JamieOber

JamieOber

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Definitely. Even a slightly positive post from Wes makes me feel better about the upcoming pattern.

I could see a less-crazy version of 93-94...maybe a month of good cold and winter weather instead of constant snow and ice from Christmas to the first week of March.

Same. 93-94 was epic up here, I'd be happy with a month of that.

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Voyager

Voyager

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Same. 93-94 was epic up here, I'd be happy with a month of that.

That winter was epic for Allentown as well. It was the snowiest winter ever for the Lehigh Valley and it seemed as if no sooner did you clean up from one storm that another was on the doorstep waiting dump another 3-6/4-8 inches.

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PennMan

PennMan

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Same. 93-94 was epic up here, I'd be happy with a month of that.

We were just far enough NW to have an awesome winter here as well. Had a surprise 17" storm, the 2/8-2/11 10-15" event and numerous 4-8" storms, a couple of solid ice storms, and a 7" sleet storm, all while temperatures were way below normal on all but a few days. Somewhere in the vicinity of 80-85" here when all was said and done. Our school district had school on Saturdays in May to make up for the number of snow days.

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JamieOber

JamieOber

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That winter was epic for Allentown as well. It was the snowiest winter ever for the Lehigh Valley and it seemed as if no sooner did you clean up from one storm that another was on the doorstep waiting dump another 3-6/4-8 inches.

I was in Pittsburgh. We got a lot of mixed events that year but also one of my favorite all time storms, 1/3/1994. Incredible storm.

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JamieOber

JamieOber

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We were just far enough NW to have an awesome winter here as well. Had a surprise 17" storm, the 2/8-2/11 10-15" event and numerous 4-8" storms, a couple of solid ice storms, and a 7" sleet storm, all while temperatures were way below normal on all but a few days. Somewhere in the vicinity of 80-85" here when all was said and done. Our school district had school on Saturdays in May to make up for the number of snow days.

Also had the coldest I ever experienced, -22 in late Jan. I bundled up so only my forehead was exposed so I could see and I could feel it tightening. I walked to the Mon Incline in Pittsburgh and opened the door, and the upper station was filled with people holding coffee cups and Dale, a really nice station operator, pouring coffee. I said **** it and went home to call my boss. He said stay home. I had separated from my wife two weeks earlier so "home" was my bud's place. He got home five minutes later so we spent the day smoking weed and playing Sega. Ah memories.

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north pgh

north pgh

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I was in Pittsburgh too and I remember cancelling my sales calls and staying home.

I had Sega too and played NHL all the time. That 1993-1996 were some great winter years.

Also had the coldest I ever experienced, -22 in late Jan. I bundled up so only my forehead was exposed so I could see and I could feel it tightening. I walked to the Mon Incline in Pittsburgh and opened the door, and the upper station was filled with people holding coffee cups and Dale, a really nice station operator, pouring coffee. I said **** it and went home to call my boss. He said stay home. I had separated from my wife two weeks earlier so "home" was my bud's place. He got home five minutes later so we spent the day smoking weed and playing Sega. Ah memories.

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PennMan

PennMan

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Okay, example of the radiational cooling IMBY.

UNV at 10:35 - 28

My thermometer - 19.3

Both of my neighbor's have the same temp as mine in the past, so it's not the thermometer. Thought you all might find that interesting. I love microclimates.

Cool. We're at 18.3° here as of 1AM...should drop a little lower than last night's 16.9°.

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MAG5035

MAG5035

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Well the 0z GFS doesn't look as horrendous as last nights 0z run. Tries to get an overrunning type deal going early in that december 18/19th timeframe.. but eventually pulls a low thru the lakes out of that. Very zonal and not necessarily torchy but still doesn't look extremely great. I've been figuring on the storm slated for later this week being a cutter for several days so not too much of a surprise there. Week after that of course gets a lot more questionable. I like the overrunning type scenario with this zonal regime looking to be the rule. PNA looks to stay just a hair above neutral, while the NAO is forecast to fall... Although its been forecast to fall toward neutral the last couple weeks it seems. If we can knock the NAO at least to near neutral, it will argue for the pesky SE ridge to be less prevalent and get us on the colder side of what will probably be a significant baroclinic boundary Christmas week. This Dec 18-20 timeframe is probably gonna yield an event with a nice wintry swath, hopefully we'll end up being part of it. At any rate I still feel this winter will eventually work out being fairly decent.. its just gonna be one that requires a good bit of patience. A positive I look at is that to this point, if we were to get a bit of a more favorable storm pattern enough cold is there to tap. And if the snowstorms start coming, I do like our north central friends over the far southeastern ones this winter cuz barring an insane change, it doesn't appear the NAO/AO is heading to extremely negative values for any major periods of time this winter. Should mean we should eventually see flat overrunning events and coastal huggers moreso than the offshore I-95 bashing coastals in an Eastern US friendly winter storm pattern.

As far as you guys' discussion about the 93/94 winter.. sadly I don't see too many parallels when you get down to the nitty gritty. ENSO was mentioned as it was a neutral in between a couple ninos. Do believe the PDO was warm phase during that time (cold now). Curiously, the 3 month running mean of the NAO went hella positive in early 1994 while the PNA fell off the face of the earth late winter/early spring 94. By the way March 3, 1994 was one of the storms that keyed the insane snowfall totals of that winter and totals in some cases beat the 93 superstorm's record breaking totals. Check out where the deform shield set up on this baby, it was a CPA classic. You might not be able to take many similarites from that winter and apply it to this one, but it's an apparent example of our area not needing the major negative NAOs tp get big snows.

Anyways... I read the one accuwx met (the one that now does long range disco in accupro) previously mention Dec 94 as one of his analogs, which made me cringe a bit. 94/95 was the red headed step child of the 4 winters of 1992 thru 1996 (try 9 inches for the SEASON at kmdt in between a pair of 77"+ seasons). I guess thats what you get in a warm PDO, moderate el nino. Fortunately we're probably not heading for that type of season as a whole this winter.

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2001kx

2001kx

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Well the 0z GFS doesn't look as horrendous as last nights 0z run. Tries to get an overrunning type deal going early in that december 18/19th timeframe.. but eventually pulls a low thru the lakes out of that. Very zonal and not necessarily torchy but still doesn't look extremely great. I've been figuring on the storm slated for later this week being a cutter for several days so not too much of a surprise there. Week after that of course gets a lot more questionable. I like the overrunning type scenario with this zonal regime looking to be the rule. PNA looks to stay just a hair above neutral, while the NAO is forecast to fall... Although its been forecast to fall toward neutral the last couple weeks it seems. If we can knock the NAO at least to near neutral, it will argue for the pesky SE ridge to be less prevalent and get us on the colder side of what will probably be a significant baroclinic boundary Christmas week. This Dec 18-20 timeframe is probably gonna yield an event with a nice wintry swath, hopefully we'll end up being part of it. At any rate I still feel this winter will eventually work out being fairly decent.. its just gonna be one that requires a good bit of patience. A positive I look at is that to this point, if we were to get a bit of a more favorable storm pattern enough cold is there to tap. And if the snowstorms start coming, I do like our north central friends over the far southeastern ones this winter cuz barring an insane change, it doesn't appear the NAO/AO is heading to extremely negative values for any major periods of time this winter. Should mean we should eventually see flat overrunning events and coastal huggers moreso than the offshore I-95 bashing coastals in an Eastern US friendly winter storm pattern.

As far as you guys' discussion about the 93/94 winter.. sadly I don't see too many parallels when you get down to the nitty gritty. ENSO was mentioned as it was a neutral in between a couple ninos. Do believe the PDO was warm phase during that time (cold now). Curiously, the 3 month running mean of the NAO went hella positive in early 1994 while the PNA fell off the face of the earth late winter/early spring 94. By the way March 3, 1994 was one of the storms that keyed the insane snowfall totals of that winter and totals in some cases beat the 93 superstorm's record breaking totals. Check out where the deform shield set up on this baby, it was a CPA classic. You might not be able to take many similarites from that winter and apply it to this one, but it's an apparent example of our area not needing the major negative NAOs tp get big snows.

Anyways... I read the one accuwx met (the one that now does long range disco in accupro) previously mention Dec 94 as one of his analogs, which made me cringe a bit. 94/95 was the red headed step child of the 4 winters of 1992 thru 1996 (try 9 inches for the SEASON at kmdt in between a pair of 77"+ seasons). I guess thats what you get in a warm PDO, moderate el nino. Fortunately we're probably not heading for that type of season as a whole this winter.

nice post mike...im ready to put the plow on the atv tomorrow...tongue.png

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PottercountyWXobserver

PottercountyWXobserver

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Lowest of the season so far! L 12.5°F @ 7:58AM .

I happened to take a look at the 06Z GFS this morning and it looks like the pattern wants to go zonal towards 312hr, then we might have a chance at some over running type events which is better than nothing at this point. If it means front end snow to sleet and ZR so be it.

Here is a decent overview of the 06Z GFS run.

* First storm presents itself as a GLC @ 72hr with a SW flow around the dreded SE ridge positioned over the NE GOM. Plus it doesn't help we have a PV digging in central Canada at this time also.

* Then as the GLC passes by the PV rotates enough to squash the SE ridge for a time, having the SE ridge relocate over Cuba. So a dry cold NW flow will dominate until around 144hr

* Next it looks like the PV fully rotates through causing the SE ridge to pump up on the periphery of the PV as it digs in western Atlantic, plus the flood gates from the Pacific open up adding insult to injury. Then a 2nd GLC developes around 168-180hr with more SW flow.

* After the 2nd GLC passes through by 192hr, a smaller push of NW flow/zonal resumes until 216hr but this push doesn't look as cold as the previous shot do to a lack of an established PV like before. Yet again the SE ridge pumps up a 3rd time around 228hr with a developing 3rd GLC at 252hr plus more SW flow sad.png

* Now I know this is really long range but this time frame hr 288-384hr finally looks somewhat promising. This is where it begins to show signs of a more stable winter weather pattern with around 348-372hr being our first real chace at an over running event. As modeled it will probably result in a change over to sleet and ZR but at least a front end thump of snow would be possible at this time. During this time the SE ridge finally becomes flatter and a zonal flow allows for a chance of bringing snow with the embeded shortwaves instead of cutting towards the lakes. Hopefully the 12Z GFS run can continue the favorable pattern in the long range. So at this time I think DEC 24th- Jan 1st could be quite active.

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