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Central PA Thread - Met. Winter 11-12 Obs/Disco


PennMan

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What a brutal day out. Pouring rain and temperature still lurking a couple tenths under 35. Pains me greatly to watch yet another wasted moisture laden storm for our area, even though this one still would've been a snow to ice/rain with any kind of respectable antecedent cold given the track.

Yeah, it's all rain now. Wonder if we can eek out an inch here when it changes over.

LIke Brian said, this is a pretty decent upslope/lake effect setup...albeit brief, and thus if you get into more persistent stuff you should be able to get an inch by tomorrow morning. I think the same could go for the other towns just off the Allegheny Front like Tyrone, Bellwood, Altoona, etc. Usually in the more decent upslope/LES events, the snows can make it to some degree into that westernmost ridge and valley region. We could've seen an inch or so easily if the storm would've tracked just a little bit further east as the deform shield lingering long enough would've likely made for a period of steady snow. Unfortunately with the low coming right over our heads, it is likely that the dry slot will be punching up thru (with deform remaining west) by the time it gets to a point where things would start changing over.

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That's what she said.

:lmao:

I think you can. The upslope/lake-effect looks decent behind this, so an inch is in reach, although the best accums will probably be from Philipsburg west. All depends on where the most persistent snow showers are.

What a brutal day out. Pouring rain and temperature still lurking a couple tenths under 35. Pains me greatly to watch yet another wasted moisture laden storm for our area, even though this one still would've been a snow to ice/rain with any kind of respectable antecedent cold given the track.

LIke Brian said, this is a pretty decent upslope/lake effect setup (albeit brief) and thus if you get into more persistent stuff you should be able to get an inch by tomorrow morning. I think the same could go for the other towns that have the same proximity from the Allegheny Front like Tyrone, Bellwood, Altoona, etc. Usually in the more decent upslope/LES events, the snows can make it to some degree into that westernmost ridge and valley. We could've seen an inch or so easily if the storm would've tracked just a little bit further east as the deform shield lingering long enough would've likely made for a period of steady snow. Unfortunately with the low coming right over our heads, it is likely that the dry slot will be punching up thru (with deform remaining west) by the time it gets to a point where things would start changing over.

Thanks, guys.

Yeah, this storm is a bit on the frustrating side.

Rain and 34.7 now.

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Started out as a snow/sleet mix. Now a sleety/rain mix (60/40 mix, more sleet). Temps are starting to crash somewhat with the evap cooling going on. I'm expecting the turnover back to snow sometime around 3-4PM. NWS calling for 2-4" around here with KBFD possibly 3-6" . Temp currently at 34.8°F with KBFD at 32F.

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Visiting relatives in Wellsville NY. (Just north of Potter)

Just started as light snow about 30 minutes ago. Maybe a little sleet mixing in.

You're in good company :) yep, know exactly where you're at, about 20 miles away. You should see 3-4" of snow, bout same as me. I'm seeing a little rain mixed in with the sleet, you?? Turnover to complete snow should commence shortly.

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Starting to mix more with rain now.

Hey Potter, what's up with the forecast for up here?

You have 2-4 in your forecast and mine has less the an inch tonight and tomorrow and I am not that far away am I?

Started out as a snow/sleet mix. Now a sleety/rain mix (60/40 mix, more sleet). Temps are starting to crash somewhat with the evap cooling going on. I'm expecting the turnover back to snow sometime around 3-4PM. NWS calling for 2-4" around here with KBFD possibly 3-6" . Temp currently at 34.8°F with KBFD at 32F.

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Starting to mix more with rain now.

Hey Potter, what's up with the forecast for up here?

You have 2-4 in your forecast and mine has less the an inch tonight and tomorrow and I am not that far away am I?

You should be fine, more than likely BUF NWS is being a little conservative. CTP issues our forecast so that may be were the difference is coming from. Wellsville tends to be a tad warmer than here but not really enough to be a big difference. Looking at the GFS snowfall printouts, Wellsville and me should see around 2-4" . Could be a little more, just depends on when we turn back over. NAM only brings an inch, so maybe BUF is hugging the NAM. GFS shows 3-5", plus a little Lake Effect for us so lets hope that ends up happening :snowman:

Sad thing is, it looks like the NAM might win, GFS wasn't showing much in the way of rain, but the NAM is, and we are now officially all rain :( Lets just hope for a quick change over and enough precip left to matter.

post-585-0-75110200-1325007630.gif

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Starting to mix more with rain now.

Hey Potter, what's up with the forecast for up here?

You have 2-4 in your forecast and mine has less the an inch tonight and tomorrow and I am not that far away am I?

Also, BUF NWS might be a little conservative, but being that extra 20 miles NE may allow you guys to mix more with rain, the cutoff with the rain/snow line is modeled very tight. But you should still should at least see some snow, lets just say your better off in Wellsville that Pittsburgh for this storm lol :)

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Also, BUF NWS might be a little conservative, but being that extra 20 miles NE may allow you guys to mix more with rain, the cutoff with the rain/snow line is modeled very tight. But you should still should at least see some snow, lets just say your better off in Wellsville that Pittsburgh for this storm lol :)

Thanks. Yes I have all rain now.

I guess it depends on how quickly we change over later.

It's always nice to come up this way in winter especially for some lake effect events.

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Oh noes!!! FB Aleet!

‎*** ALERT *** ALERT** the 12z CMC model has turned DRAMATICALLY to the European Model solution of a MAJOR EAST COAST Low JAN 3-4.. and away from the GFS Model which STILL shows NO BIG east coast Low... this shift of a model from NO Big east coast Low to BIG Low... is SIGNIFICANT

‎*** ALERT *** ALERT *** 12Z Tuesday brand new European develops MAJOR EAST COAST WINTER STORM JAN 3-4..... the Model if ..IF.. you take the Model Verbatim it does shows SIGNIFICANT snow over western and central NC VA much of MD and into the I-95 Cities ....

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Oh noes!!! FB Aleet!

‎*** ALERT *** ALERT** the 12z CMC model has turned DRAMATICALLY to the European Model solution of a MAJOR EAST COAST Low JAN 3-4.. and away from the GFS Model which STILL shows NO BIG east coast Low... this shift of a model from NO Big east coast Low to BIG Low... is SIGNIFICANT

‎*** ALERT *** ALERT *** 12Z Tuesday brand new European develops MAJOR EAST COAST WINTER STORM JAN 3-4..... the Model if ..IF.. you take the Model Verbatim it does shows SIGNIFICANT snow over western and central NC VA much of MD and into the I-95 Cities ....

SIGNIFICANT!

He must be laying on the floor unconscious after the latest Euro run.

It's hilarious.

Takes the low up the coast, NJ Capes to near Philly, then hooks it back toward Scranton, then develops ANOTHER low near Boston.

Crushes us.

Totally outlandish. I really think the Euro is trolling us.

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Oh noes!!! FB Aleet!

‎*** ALERT *** ALERT** the 12z CMC model has turned DRAMATICALLY to the European Model solution of a MAJOR EAST COAST Low JAN 3-4.. and away from the GFS Model which STILL shows NO BIG east coast Low... this shift of a model from NO Big east coast Low to BIG Low... is SIGNIFICANT

‎*** ALERT *** ALERT *** 12Z Tuesday brand new European develops MAJOR EAST COAST WINTER STORM JAN 3-4..... the Model if ..IF.. you take the Model Verbatim it does shows SIGNIFICANT snow over western and central NC VA much of MD and into the I-95 Cities ....

WTF happened to old hardcore DT that actually provided some great insight to things and would say "The model shows a storm, but the pattern and setup begs to differ."

R.I.P DT...just a shell of his former self.

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I've only been following this dope for a little while via facebook but it's unending hilarity as I see it.

***ALERT!!!*** ***HONK HONK*** *I SAID "ALERT"!***

***I HAVE NO GUY PARTS!!*** ***LOL!***

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, Margusity weighs-in...

Euro model is garbage for next week. NO major storm is coming as depicted on the model. NAO too positive, PNA going neutral.

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