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Central PA Thread - Met. Winter 11-12 Obs/Disco


PennMan

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Euro's a SECS for the interior. Merry late Christmas for you guys?

And the GFS is an ice storm. WTF.

Yea, certainly a fine line between a wet snowstorm and perhaps a potential freezing rain event in the central. I have just had a look at the European and it is a nice run for some of the area. Judging by 850 and 925 temps i'd call it a wet snowfall...barely. 925s zero line is all the way to the chicken capital but 850s are hovering either side of zero by a degree tops at hour 102 over the whole area. Hour 108 warmer temps surge into eastern-most pa so east of MDT might go over to rain. True central PA (even Potter) gets a pretty good event. Once again a great forecast track for central PA climowise and this storm appears robust enough to barely pull in enough cold. But I shall remain cautious on this event cuz it looks like another marginal one where elevation may ultimately play a role once again.

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And the GFS is an ice storm. WTF.

Lol, in my very noob observation, it looks like the southern stream energy that we were originally looking for with the Christmas storm is now hanging back an extra two days and phasing and causing this new storm. This is in stark contrast from just 24 hours ago where the models were rapidly sliding that energy off the coast missing everything...lol.

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And the 18z nam shows a cutter...lol

Wouldn't be surprised if this one ends up cutting, 18z GFS also cuts this thing too far west..not necessarily a lakes cutter but it runs a low over our heads. Granted this is the 18z suite. But nothing to really stop it from yanking wide left if the timing of the features in the split flow isn't such. Hopefully we can salvage something before the years out. GFS has had some rumblings of northern branch features around the range of next weekend, and seems to keep things a bit colder with each wave bringing down some glancing cold. Big difference from the European though, which sends a system in the aformentioned timeframe across the western lakes with raised eastern heights. NAO forecast looks better as of late, with decent agreement of eventually getting to a more neutral regime by around New Years.

At any rate, if you think snows been bad here check this out:

18274836.png

Friend of mine from Binghamton shared this with me, you'll note Binghamton is actually leading the LES powerhouses of Syracuse and Buffalo. The 1.7" at Syrcause really blows me away. Pretty amazing that thanks to getting smacked by the Oct 29th storm a bunch of C-PA cities would be at least 2nd or 3rd on this list.

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I'll add my well wishes to everyone...especially in the cool central pa and philly threads. Despite the weather...It's still fun in here. Merry Christmas and here's to better trackin weather after Christmas. Be safe everyone.

Nut

Right back at ya.

I'll probably post my wishes to the best subforum anywhere in the weather world tomorrow, but in the meantime, enjoy your Xmas Eve. And I hope you had a nice Festivus, winning the feats of strength.

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It looks like things might be starting to change. Over in Ny disco, the are seeing what looks like the light at the end of the tunnel w/ the AO starting to look better by early Jan. At least no torch to bear and maybe we eek out a few opps prior to the realignment of the pattern. I sure hope so. Several are confident that this may be the real deal. I hope so.

Nut

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Merry Christmas...seems to me some good trends tonight.

Reading what I can from the Euro, sounds like it tracks straight up the Hudson valley with the mid week storm. That would seem to bode well, at least for parts of Western and Central PA.

Sounds like BUF is getting crushed by it....and also sounds phased. Not sure how the low tracks before that because the thread is in meltdown mode.

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Merry Christmas...seems to me some good trends tonight.

Reading what I can from the Euro, sounds like it tracks straight up the Hudson valley with the mid week storm. That would seem to bode well, at least for parts of Western and Central PA.

Sounds like BUF is getting crushed by it....and also sounds phased. Not sure how the low tracks before that because the thread is in meltdown mode.

I liked seeing that the GFS switched over to the coast tonight after looking pretty ugly.

Tonights European comes up a bit too far inside for most of the C-PA gang. Pittsburgh/western PA would seem to be in a better position, pit has 0.7 printed out total which a good majority would probably be wet snow, though portion of that starts with marginal temps. Should note that 2 meters in JST/AOO/UNV are in the tenths of degrees above zero to start the event (32-34), so the prospects of a freezing rain event would certainly be alive in that corridor. Eventually does get cold enough to snow in these spots by looks of text data, but yea.. a messy looking event if that happens. MDT and that region would look to be all rain and IPT has a ton of QPF overall with a probable meaningful snow changeover. Euro has clearly been the most wound up on this storm, thus its phase and associated inside track. A (somewhat less phased) compromise between the other models would yield not such a steep track straight up and keep more of C-PA in the game, as well as additionally keep the Pit area in too. Either way, temps will be very marginal for this and its going to need enough deepening of the low to get the column cooled quickly but yet not so much so that we have a euro-like bomb over our head. Its gonna be a nail biter..hopefully mother nature can pull one out of her butt for a change.

Merry Christmas!

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