pawatch Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Here's wishing you all the joys of the season. Wish you and your family a Merry Christmas! Potter nice pictures! So that's what winter is suppose to look like! As mentioned this weather, at least helps with the heating bills. And this picture pretty much sums the pattern up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Euro's a SECS for the interior. Merry late Christmas for you guys? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Euro's a SECS for the interior. Merry late Christmas for you guys? And the GFS is an ice storm. WTF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 I've been basking in 70 degree wonderfullness all day today in SE Virginia!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 And the GFS is an ice storm. WTF. F ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 Euro's a SECS for the interior. Merry late Christmas for you guys? And the GFS is an ice storm. WTF. Yea, certainly a fine line between a wet snowstorm and perhaps a potential freezing rain event in the central. I have just had a look at the European and it is a nice run for some of the area. Judging by 850 and 925 temps i'd call it a wet snowfall...barely. 925s zero line is all the way to the chicken capital but 850s are hovering either side of zero by a degree tops at hour 102 over the whole area. Hour 108 warmer temps surge into eastern-most pa so east of MDT might go over to rain. True central PA (even Potter) gets a pretty good event. Once again a great forecast track for central PA climowise and this storm appears robust enough to barely pull in enough cold. But I shall remain cautious on this event cuz it looks like another marginal one where elevation may ultimately play a role once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 And the GFS is an ice storm. WTF. Lol, in my very noob observation, it looks like the southern stream energy that we were originally looking for with the Christmas storm is now hanging back an extra two days and phasing and causing this new storm. This is in stark contrast from just 24 hours ago where the models were rapidly sliding that energy off the coast missing everything...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 23, 2011 Share Posted December 23, 2011 And the 18z nam shows a cutter...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 The next few days will be cold and boring, so Merry Christmas to you guys. Hope everyone has a wonderful holiday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 And the 18z nam shows a cutter...lol Wouldn't be surprised if this one ends up cutting, 18z GFS also cuts this thing too far west..not necessarily a lakes cutter but it runs a low over our heads. Granted this is the 18z suite. But nothing to really stop it from yanking wide left if the timing of the features in the split flow isn't such. Hopefully we can salvage something before the years out. GFS has had some rumblings of northern branch features around the range of next weekend, and seems to keep things a bit colder with each wave bringing down some glancing cold. Big difference from the European though, which sends a system in the aformentioned timeframe across the western lakes with raised eastern heights. NAO forecast looks better as of late, with decent agreement of eventually getting to a more neutral regime by around New Years. At any rate, if you think snows been bad here check this out: Friend of mine from Binghamton shared this with me, you'll note Binghamton is actually leading the LES powerhouses of Syracuse and Buffalo. The 1.7" at Syrcause really blows me away. Pretty amazing that thanks to getting smacked by the Oct 29th storm a bunch of C-PA cities would be at least 2nd or 3rd on this list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Bit earlier transfer on this run of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gbru316 Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 GFS is saying rain for the Lancaster area on the 28th... Good thing I'll be in nowth cackalacky then, sick of the rain. If it's boy going to snow, I'd rather it be dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 We got a dusting of snow this am. Had no idea that was to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 I'll add my well wishes to everyone...especially in the cool central pa and philly threads. Despite the weather...It's still fun in here. Merry Christmas and here's to better trackin weather after Christmas. Be safe everyone. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 I'll add my well wishes to everyone...especially in the cool central pa and philly threads. Despite the weather...It's still fun in here. Merry Christmas and here's to better trackin weather after Christmas. Be safe everyone. Nut Right back at ya. I'll probably post my wishes to the best subforum anywhere in the weather world tomorrow, but in the meantime, enjoy your Xmas Eve. And I hope you had a nice Festivus, winning the feats of strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Let it rain Wednesday....KAVP only needs .43" to get to 60.00" for the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Not to jump ahead to far, but do we got some snow come the 31st? We had a light dusting here this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 MDT sits at 72.63" rain, was hoping for 80" but that won't happen (probably a good thing!). Tuesday's forecast is fun: 41 | 31 °F Ice Pellets 60% chance of precipitation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Euros a bomb and destroys interior NYS lol. Light snow/snow showers all the way down the Apps, even into WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 Aforementioned Euro run (snowfall) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 24, 2011 Share Posted December 24, 2011 It looks like things might be starting to change. Over in Ny disco, the are seeing what looks like the light at the end of the tunnel w/ the AO starting to look better by early Jan. At least no torch to bear and maybe we eek out a few opps prior to the realignment of the pattern. I sure hope so. Several are confident that this may be the real deal. I hope so. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Merry Christmas...seems to me some good trends tonight. Reading what I can from the Euro, sounds like it tracks straight up the Hudson valley with the mid week storm. That would seem to bode well, at least for parts of Western and Central PA. Sounds like BUF is getting crushed by it....and also sounds phased. Not sure how the low tracks before that because the thread is in meltdown mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Merry Christmas...seems to me some good trends tonight. Reading what I can from the Euro, sounds like it tracks straight up the Hudson valley with the mid week storm. That would seem to bode well, at least for parts of Western and Central PA. Sounds like BUF is getting crushed by it....and also sounds phased. Not sure how the low tracks before that because the thread is in meltdown mode. I liked seeing that the GFS switched over to the coast tonight after looking pretty ugly. Tonights European comes up a bit too far inside for most of the C-PA gang. Pittsburgh/western PA would seem to be in a better position, pit has 0.7 printed out total which a good majority would probably be wet snow, though portion of that starts with marginal temps. Should note that 2 meters in JST/AOO/UNV are in the tenths of degrees above zero to start the event (32-34), so the prospects of a freezing rain event would certainly be alive in that corridor. Eventually does get cold enough to snow in these spots by looks of text data, but yea.. a messy looking event if that happens. MDT and that region would look to be all rain and IPT has a ton of QPF overall with a probable meaningful snow changeover. Euro has clearly been the most wound up on this storm, thus its phase and associated inside track. A (somewhat less phased) compromise between the other models would yield not such a steep track straight up and keep more of C-PA in the game, as well as additionally keep the Pit area in too. Either way, temps will be very marginal for this and its going to need enough deepening of the low to get the column cooled quickly but yet not so much so that we have a euro-like bomb over our head. Its gonna be a nail biter..hopefully mother nature can pull one out of her butt for a change. Merry Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Merry Christmas my Central PA friends!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Merry Christmas everyone or happy Chanukah to you! Wow Euro wow, would be the first real storm for many of the season! Nam and GFS look decent also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 merry Christmas everyone. hope everyone in C PA can see some snow from this storm, but I have my doubts for the eastern regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Merry Christmas, from the red-headed stepchild of the regions! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Merry Christmas everyone and we got a storm to track. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Merry Christmas everyone and we got a storm to track. Wow. Yeah....12z GFS agrees with Euro...no coastal...bombs away up the Delaware & Hudson valleys....MDT looks to reach 74" of precip for the year. Merry Christmas to all from central Cumberland County! ---Stephen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Merry Christmas all. Got a bomb on our hands. Like the sound of light snow down the spine of the Apps. NYS is ground zero for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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