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Central PA Thread - Met. Winter 11-12 Obs/Disco


PennMan

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Outlook for the rest of winter.

January: Not much to say here but, TORCH! It is going to be a very warm month. Probably be in the 60's and maybe a day in the 70's. No snow threats until the end of the month where maybe we have one shot.

post-959-0-13800900-1324492205.jpg

February: Once again pretty warm. I think we might see a few ice storms or mixed storms this month. Otherwise no real big snow threats either.

post-959-0-84360800-1324492264.jpg

I hated posting this since I am a snow lover but, it had to be done.

:axe:

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:axe: :axe: :axe: :axe:

It probably just forms a storm because of it holding S/W back bias which is why we had the Christmas day storm on it. Now that energy gets kicked out and nothing while more gets held back for another tease.

The dam split flow out West will eventually collapse.

When it does, all the slow moving s/w's in the Southern branch will eventually phase back in with the main flow and we will get a storm.

Guess its up to the downstream setup on whether it cuts inland, hits or heads OTS.

Wouldn't a GLC be such a byatch. Miss right. Miss left.

Weenie suicides for all.

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Dude calm down, you can't control weather so getting all worked up when it doesn't do what you wish is a bit silly.

Living on the hope of a 120z model run isn't good for the heart, and isn't worth much investment.

We knew this winter would be rough. Might as well enjoy the holidays, appreciate we have rain and aren't like my parents who have last I looked 8" this year (and 21" in the past 28 months) and realize it'll snow when a pattern changes. Until then, getting antsy, pouty and all is a bit overboard.

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Dude calm down, you can't control weather so getting all worked up when it doesn't do what you wish is a bit silly.

Living on the hope of a 120z model run isn't good for the heart, and isn't worth much investment.

We knew this winter would be rough. Might as well enjoy the holidays, appreciate we have rain and aren't like my parents who have last I looked 8" this year (and 21" in the past 28 months) and realize it'll snow when a pattern changes. Until then, getting antsy, pouty and all is a bit overboard.

Who are you talking to? I am just stating the obvious here.

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Zak,

If you believe that we see 60's in January, you might want to rethink your map showing a positive 3 to 4 degree anomaly for the month. 60's here would be a 25 to 30 degree departure from normal, we'd need some really cold days to offset that.

Not just the highs that is average temp. Highs and lows.

Edit: You are right though, probably would have to add a few degrees. Either or it is going to be warm.

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Southern parts of Pittsburgh getting some good thunderstorms right now.

They went to my south but a good amount of CTG Lightning.

Temp is 60. It is more like late May today.

With the way the snow events haven't been panning out it kind of gets me in the mood for Spring Thunderstorms already. ;)

Hey, its better than cloudy and cold and dry. :pimp:

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Man the weather sucks so bad lately I forgot, Happy first day of winter everyone!! lol

I am planning on getting an awesome webcam like PSU and UPJ among other places have, for Christmas. They have them on sale for 70 bucks down from 325 bucks. For now here is my crappy cam showing crappy conditions.

current.jpg?1324501567

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Man the weather sucks so bad lately I forgot, Happy first day of winter everyone!! lol

I am planning on getting an awesome webcam like PSU and UPJ among other places have, for Christmas. They have them on sale for 70 bucks down from 325 bucks. For now here is my crappy cam showing crappy conditions.

current.jpg?1324501567

If you need webcam software, I've been using yawcam with decent success. It's freeware that let's you save pictures to a file, upload via http or FTP, and stream. You can also customize overlays.

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Oh you guys.. haha. I'm personally not surprised the models currently have dropped the X-mas storm. The other two storms this year have had this happen in this timeframe, although in their cases the ensembles consistently showed more support than the ops and we don't have that right now with this event/nonevent. However, I'm not writing the threat off yet, I'd like to see another day or two of models. This is a complicated pattern, and we're still about 3-4 days out.

As for the Thurs night/Friday event, I'm not too enthused about much accumulating snow below the ny border counties of PA. Potter should be able to get some love for a change, seeing a couple inches of wet snow perhaps. The region between the NY border counties and I-80, as well as some of the higher Laurels might see a late changeover and a coating or so. Just having seasonal air mass in place would've made this one of those nice solid 4-8 inchers for most everyone. Normally i'd say theres a decent chance that things could end up being a bit cooler and change things over quicker and further south but after seeing the last event bust bad because of the rain hanging on too long I'm not holding my breath to see this one end up any differently.

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