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Central PA Thread - Met. Winter 11-12 Obs/Disco


PennMan

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Figured I'd get this started as our somewhat failed rain to snowstorm winds down, as that thread has exceeded 1000 posts.

Looks like some seasonably chilly weather the next several days, should be some lows in the upper teens around the area Saturday and/or Sunday morning.

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hockey, that map's incomplete. Here's our area, and it surprised me:

.CENTRE COUNTY...

1 N CENTRE HALL 5.0 939 AM 12/08 CENTRE HALL MOUNTAIN

4 E BELLEFONTE 3.0 800 AM 12/08 COCORAHS

2 SE STATE COLLEGE 2.7 939 AM 12/08 NWS EMPLOYEE

PHILIPSBURG 2 S 2.3 800 AM 12/08 COOP

3 NW STATE COLLEGE 1.7 700 AM 12/08 COCORAHS

BOALSBURG 1.6 1035 PM 12/07 PUBLIC

E BOALSBURG 1.5 600 AM 12/08 COCORAHS

PLEASANT GAP 1.5 800 PM 12/07 NWS EMPLOYEE

STATE COLLEGE 1.2 800 AM 12/08 COOP

My co-worker can confirm the 3 inches as he lives 4 miles east of Bellefonte. He was really surprised today at lack of snow on his drive in and even Tweeted me to say good forecast on the 2-4" I put on Twitter. Get this - elevation? 950'

Figure that one. Must have got a decent band.

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hockey, that map's incomplete. Here's our area, and it surprised me:

.CENTRE COUNTY...

1 N CENTRE HALL 5.0 939 AM 12/08 CENTRE HALL MOUNTAIN

4 E BELLEFONTE 3.0 800 AM 12/08 COCORAHS

2 SE STATE COLLEGE 2.7 939 AM 12/08 NWS EMPLOYEE

PHILIPSBURG 2 S 2.3 800 AM 12/08 COOP

3 NW STATE COLLEGE 1.7 700 AM 12/08 COCORAHS

BOALSBURG 1.6 1035 PM 12/07 PUBLIC

E BOALSBURG 1.5 600 AM 12/08 COCORAHS

PLEASANT GAP 1.5 800 PM 12/07 NWS EMPLOYEE

STATE COLLEGE 1.2 800 AM 12/08 COOP

My co-worker can confirm the 3 inches as he lives 4 miles east of Bellefonte. He was really surprised today at lack of snow on his drive in and even Tweeted me to say good forecast on the 2-4" I put on Twitter. Get this - elevation? 950'

Figure that one. Must have got a decent band.

That's a surprise, indeed. I wonder what places such as Tussey Mtn and Nittany Mtn received?

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That's a surprise, indeed. I wonder what places such as Tussey Mtn and Nittany Mtn received?

Mount Nittany is nice and white, and the ski slopes are nicely covered as well. Obviously I can't estimate amounts, but seeing how long the snow lasts can give us an idea of how much they got.

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IMBY at 880' we had a very decent non asphalt surface coating to an inch. Mix started at 7:15 and was snowing predom by 7:30 as temps crashed an stout 6F in 1.25 hours between 6:30-7:45. Incredible TSnow rumbled long and loud at 7:40 and once thereafter. The "mountain" tops surrounding Hbg were very scenic at daybreak. Not a bad little packet all in all.

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That's a surprise, indeed. I wonder what places such as Tussey Mtn and Nittany Mtn received?

I'll let you guys know about Tussey after I get my tree stand either tomorrow or Sat morning. We hunt on Tussey off of the Barrens region and it's usually good for decent snow in the type of event that we had yesterday. I would imagine there's at least a few inches.

Speaking of hunting, been meaning to share with the hunters in here but it got busy with the storm potential.. bagged an 8 point early Sat morning last weekend.

post-1507-0-74406700-1323383110.jpg

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hockey, that map's incomplete. Here's our area, and it surprised me:

.CENTRE COUNTY...

1 N CENTRE HALL 5.0 939 AM 12/08 CENTRE HALL MOUNTAIN

4 E BELLEFONTE 3.0 800 AM 12/08 COCORAHS

2 SE STATE COLLEGE 2.7 939 AM 12/08 NWS EMPLOYEE

PHILIPSBURG 2 S 2.3 800 AM 12/08 COOP

3 NW STATE COLLEGE 1.7 700 AM 12/08 COCORAHS

BOALSBURG 1.6 1035 PM 12/07 PUBLIC

E BOALSBURG 1.5 600 AM 12/08 COCORAHS

PLEASANT GAP 1.5 800 PM 12/07 NWS EMPLOYEE

STATE COLLEGE 1.2 800 AM 12/08 COOP

My co-worker can confirm the 3 inches as he lives 4 miles east of Bellefonte. He was really surprised today at lack of snow on his drive in and even Tweeted me to say good forecast on the 2-4" I put on Twitter. Get this - elevation? 950'

Figure that one. Must have got a decent band.

Yeah I figured. Big hole cut around Leb county which got at least a dusting in Northern regions.

I'll let you guys know about Tussey after I get my tree stand either tomorrow or Sat morning. We hunt on Tussey off of the Barrens region and it's usually good for decent snow in the type of event that we had yesterday. I would imagine there's at least a few inches.

Speaking of hunting, been meaning to share with the hunters in here but it got busy with the storm potential.. bagged an 8 point early Sat morning last weekend.

post-1507-0-74406700-1323383110.jpg

I haven't seen a deer since opening day. Congrats.

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Mag. that looks like a pic of one we saw on here the other week??? Congrats. Headed to Tioga for my last day buck tomorrow.

Nut

Actually the picture I put up a few weeks ago was of a different buck that has been roaming the neighborhood here at home, and word on the street is he still is as noone got him. As far as I'm concerned he can get bigger next year weight_lift.gif

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I guess day 10 on the Euro and the 18Z GFS around day 9-10 there's a storm. DT mentioned it as a potential threat, fwiw.

10 days away, eh? wink.png

Looks like we have a particularly boring 5-7 day stretch coming up here. Should be a couple of cold mornings this weekend at least. I'm thinking we break into the teens Sunday morning. Currently 26.4° here, I don't think we'll drop much below 24-25° tonight.

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10 days away, eh? wink.png

Looks like we have a particularly boring 5-7 day stretch coming up here. Should be a couple of cold mornings this weekend at least. I'm thinking we break into the teens Sunday morning. Currently 26.4° here, I don't think we'll drop much below 24-25° tonight.

lol...DT posted this on the WxRisk FB page:

NOTIFICATION-- MODEL COMMENT ON DEC 18-19 *** POSSIBLE winter ***event ... the 12z euro ensemble is VERY strong on this. Quite frankly I was SURPRISED by this... Europe ensemble has fairly strong split flow on the west coast with the Northern Jet showing +PNA while Southern Jet has potent looking system.

ALEET ALEET!

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I guess day 10 on the Euro and the 18Z GFS around day 9-10 there's a storm. DT mentioned it as a potential threat, fwiw.

New 0z GFS def has this threat, timed around the 20th. We're likely gonna have to take another rain event in the chops later next week with a lakes cutter..but this longer range seems to have been whipping into shape...for now anyways. The long range storm is classic southern stream gulf low to jersey shore coastal... haven't seen that kind of event/setup show up in the models in any fashion in a long while. I think key for our geographic area is to get a good +PNA rolling while lowering the NAO to neutral (not necessarily needing it way into negative territory). We'll see how it goes.

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New 0z GFS def has this threat, timed around the 20th. We're likely gonna have to take another rain event in the chops later next week with a lakes cutter..but this longer range seems to have been whipping into shape...for now anyways. The long range storm is classic southern stream gulf low to jersey shore coastal... haven't seen that kind of event/setup show up in the models in any fashion in a long while. I think key for our geographic area is to get a good +PNA rolling while lowering the NAO to neutral (not necessarily needing it way into negative territory). We'll see how it goes.

Yep, saw the threat also, interesting none the less. I'm hoping I can score a little bit of LE before the Lake cutter washes it all away.

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Yep, saw the threat also, interesting none the less. I'm hoping I can score a little bit of LE before the Lake cutter washes it all away.

Yea actually seems like the first storms modeled to go up west enough that it just tails a front and less rain through.. If lakes cutter is how its gonna go than i'll take that. Tired of the rain haha.

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I'll let you guys know about Tussey after I get my tree stand either tomorrow or Sat morning. We hunt on Tussey off of the Barrens region and it's usually good for decent snow in the type of event that we had yesterday. I would imagine there's at least a few inches.

Speaking of hunting, been meaning to share with the hunters in here but it got busy with the storm potential.. bagged an 8 point early Sat morning last weekend.

post-1507-0-74406700-1323383110.jpg

Nice Buck Mag

I saw that monster buck again on the way home. Saw him three weeks ago. Biggest damn deer I have ever seen.

I had to come to work for a couple hours, then i'm hunting hard today and tomorrow. The 100 acres i hunt, there are 2 very nice bucks, 1 is a 8 pt. about a 140 class the other looks like a 9 or 10 pt. 140 class. as of now, their winning the battle!

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From CTP:

IF THE FRONT STALLS OVER TX AND THE

NRN EDGE OF THE COLD AIR PUSHES THRU NEW ENGLAND...THIS COULD

LEAD TO MORE RAIN OR SNOW ON THE NRN EDGE. DAYS 7/8 ARE TOO FAR

OUT TO BE TOO CERTAIN OF MUCH AT ALL. BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN IS

HIGHLY SIMILAR THRU ALL THE GUID...AND IT DOES LOOK REMINISCENT

OF THIS LAST STORM.

yikes.pngyikes.pngyikes.pngyikes.pngyikes.pngyikes.pngyikes.png

Someone page easternuswx....

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From CTP:

IF THE FRONT STALLS OVER TX AND THE

NRN EDGE OF THE COLD AIR PUSHES THRU NEW ENGLAND...THIS COULD

LEAD TO MORE RAIN OR SNOW ON THE NRN EDGE. DAYS 7/8 ARE TOO FAR

OUT TO BE TOO CERTAIN OF MUCH AT ALL. BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN IS

HIGHLY SIMILAR THRU ALL THE GUID...AND IT DOES LOOK REMINISCENT

OF THIS LAST STORM.

yikes.pngyikes.pngyikes.pngyikes.pngyikes.pngyikes.pngyikes.png

Someone page easternuswx....

when i get home i'll hit him up on Facebook, make sure he knows! oh wait, i'd better email now, this seems urgent

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From CTP:

IF THE FRONT STALLS OVER TX AND THE

NRN EDGE OF THE COLD AIR PUSHES THRU NEW ENGLAND...THIS COULD

LEAD TO MORE RAIN OR SNOW ON THE NRN EDGE. DAYS 7/8 ARE TOO FAR

OUT TO BE TOO CERTAIN OF MUCH AT ALL. BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN IS

HIGHLY SIMILAR THRU ALL THE GUID...AND IT DOES LOOK REMINISCENT

OF THIS LAST STORM.

yikes.pngyikes.pngyikes.pngyikes.pngyikes.pngyikes.pngyikes.png

Someone page easternuswx....

laugh.png

At least there is some solace in knowing that it would be nearly impossible to get less snow out of it than the last storm.

It was pretty cold here this morning, 23.7° for the low. Currently 44.1°.

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From CTP:

IF THE FRONT STALLS OVER TX AND THE

NRN EDGE OF THE COLD AIR PUSHES THRU NEW ENGLAND...THIS COULD

LEAD TO MORE RAIN OR SNOW ON THE NRN EDGE. DAYS 7/8 ARE TOO FAR

OUT TO BE TOO CERTAIN OF MUCH AT ALL. BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN IS

HIGHLY SIMILAR THRU ALL THE GUID...AND IT DOES LOOK REMINISCENT

OF THIS LAST STORM.

yikes.pngyikes.pngyikes.pngyikes.pngyikes.pngyikes.pngyikes.png

Someone page easternuswx....

From occasionally lurking in the New England threads I know that "toaster bath" is a popular term with those folks up there when discussing busts and overall bad patterns. Someone should check on him... laugh.png

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I have a feeling this winter is going to be a painful one sad.png The long range doesn't lock in cold air but transient in nature. It gets pulled in after a cutter than it leaves before anything meaningful comes. At this point I just hope for a white Christmas.

Although I did pick up another .2" of snow this morning from the mini lake effect last night.

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