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12/7-12/8 Observation Thread


IsentropicLift

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Wow complete change over is still not underway here at 1,230 feet in Eastern Pike County, Nepa. I have had rain/snow mix for the past hour, temp is 32.4 degrees too. Meanwhile, 15 min to my nw is all snow and easily 1-2 inches on the ground already.

Im surprised your still mixing.. Some flakes are starting to mix in now.. down to 37.5*

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ALBANY:

AS OF 930PM RADAR FSI CROSS SECTIONS AND SPOTTER REPORTS HAVE RAIN

CHANGING TO SNOW AROUND THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT. THIS IS

RUNNING AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND GRIDS AND MADE MINOR CHANGES. THIS

PROCESS WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE RAIN OVER TO SNOW IN NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

00UTC NAM IN LINE WITH PVS QPF AND THINKING. NO DEPARTURES THERE.

ONCE PCPN CHANGES OVER BURST OF SNOW FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN MASSIVE

TILTED FRONTOGENESIS AS MESOSCALE BAND HAS SET UP FM SW VT TO

CATSKILLS (CSTAR) WHILE PCPN MAY BE CHANGING OVER 1-2 HOURS

LATER...DONT THINK IT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER CURRENT THINKING ON

AMOUNTS OR HEADLINES GIVEN CHARACTER AND FORCING OF THE SNOW

OVERNIGHT.

ALL 3 HOUR PRESSURE MAX FALLS ARE NOW OFFSHORE NJ/DELMARVA. RAPID

DEEPENING WILL OCCUR NEXT FEW HOURS AS 500HPA SHORT WAVE INTERACT

WITH STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG COAST.

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Lights just flickered here... fortunately there's no heavy wet snow falling outside to bring down the power lines again.

The potential for strong back end wind gusts looks interesting, it would not surprise me to see a few 40 mph gusts late tonight.

Already gusting over 30 mph here with heavy rain.

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DXR was 46F at 3z...WCSU obs (which almost always run 1.5 to 2.0F cooler than DXR) are down to 38.9 as of 10:43pm. Adjusted temp would be 41F at DXR...my guess is they are at 41 or 40 by 4z. High res NAM makes things very interesting right at the end, but it might be too little too late. either way, a fun storm with some intense dynamics.

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+1

lets face it....systems are getting wetter. get a block in place and boom!

cold and dry winters are a thing of the past.

Part of the reason why I expect a big snow for our area this winter is the warm AMO signal. Until we cool the waters in the West Atlantic, we're going to be dealing with enhanced baroclinicity and stronger thermal gradients as short waves amplify near the east coast. If one looks at the winters in the 1950s and 1960s, precip decreased significantly in the latter decade, and that's largely because the AMO was reaching the minimum of its negative/cold state. Less energy input into the atmosphere when troughs dug into the east. We still had awesome storms and winters in the 60s, but precip was below to well below normal overall.

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DXR was 46F at 3z...WCSU obs (which almost always run 1.5 to 2.0F cooler than DXR) are down to 38.9 as of 10:43pm. Adjusted temp would be 41F at DXR...my guess is they are at 41 or 40 by 4z. High res NAM makes things very interesting right at the end, but it might be too little too late. either way, a fun storm with some intense dynamics.

good to see you reppin D Block.

Never though about using WCSU obs. i will google it.

winds have really picked up the past 30min...

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Part of the reason why I expect a big snow for our area this winter is the warm AMO signal. Until we cool the waters in the West Atlantic, we're going to be dealing with enhanced baroclinicity and stronger thermal gradients as short waves amplify near the east coast. If one looks at the winters in the 1950s and 1960s, precip decreased significantly in the latter decade, and that's largely because the AMO was reaching the minimum of its negative/cold state. Less energy input into the atmosphere when troughs dug into the east. We still had awesome storms and winters in the 60s, but precip was below to well below normal overall.

gotchya. how long do AMO states last in their cycle? Is there a graph of some sort?

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http://wcsu.edu/weather/

I recently redesigned their website...didn't have a lot to work with.

temps update continuously, but like I said, add 2F for a pretty damn good idea of what the real temps are

looks good. I bookmarked it. thanks!

Im on the NW side of town behind ridgewood country club btw....I figure there is gotta be a temp difference around town, considering how big it is. I just moved up here first week of Sept.

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As modeled,

NYC and LI being kept out of the steady and heavy rains.

Just some scattered spotty rain for the past few hours and looks to continue like this. Especially from Brooklyn on east.

Glad this isn't a snowstorm.

yea. NAM did a great job with the non precip in SE NJ and LI. basically areas along the front and SE was spotty or dry all day.

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As modeled,

NYC and LI being kept out of the steady and heavy rains.

Just some scattered, spotty rain for the past few hours and looks to continue like this. Especially from Brooklyn on east.

Glad this isn't a snowstorm.

Amen. There would have been a lot of weenie suicides.

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I do not think that is right, all the people in DC have reported only rain. I am just north of Baltimore and we have been getting heavy wet snow for the past hour and a half but nothing is sticking.

Meteorologist Capital Weather

dca ob at 11 p.m. is rain/snow. that's pretty awesome if dca got flakes and leesburg didn't. lol.
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