NYCSuburbs Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Lights just flickered here... fortunately there's no heavy wet snow falling outside to bring down the power lines again. The potential for strong back end wind gusts looks interesting, it would not surprise me to see a few 40 mph gusts late tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Wow complete change over is still not underway here at 1,230 feet in Eastern Pike County, Nepa. I have had rain/snow mix for the past hour, temp is 32.4 degrees too. Meanwhile, 15 min to my nw is all snow and easily 1-2 inches on the ground already. Im surprised your still mixing.. Some flakes are starting to mix in now.. down to 37.5* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Im surprised your still mixing.. Some flakes are starting to mix in now.. down to 37.5* Congrats!, on a side note, for unknown reasons to me the DSNY will be on sno watch at midnight. SMH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 ALBANY: AS OF 930PM RADAR FSI CROSS SECTIONS AND SPOTTER REPORTS HAVE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW AROUND THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT. THIS IS RUNNING AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND GRIDS AND MADE MINOR CHANGES. THIS PROCESS WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE RAIN OVER TO SNOW IN NEXT 1-2 HOURS. 00UTC NAM IN LINE WITH PVS QPF AND THINKING. NO DEPARTURES THERE. ONCE PCPN CHANGES OVER BURST OF SNOW FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN MASSIVE TILTED FRONTOGENESIS AS MESOSCALE BAND HAS SET UP FM SW VT TO CATSKILLS (CSTAR) WHILE PCPN MAY BE CHANGING OVER 1-2 HOURS LATER...DONT THINK IT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER CURRENT THINKING ON AMOUNTS OR HEADLINES GIVEN CHARACTER AND FORCING OF THE SNOW OVERNIGHT. ALL 3 HOUR PRESSURE MAX FALLS ARE NOW OFFSHORE NJ/DELMARVA. RAPID DEEPENING WILL OCCUR NEXT FEW HOURS AS 500HPA SHORT WAVE INTERACT WITH STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG COAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Light Rain with Temp 55 F but should be falling soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Fwiw, Steve D just said the precip will end in NYC around 6 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCsnow17 Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Lights just flickered here... fortunately there's no heavy wet snow falling outside to bring down the power lines again. The potential for strong back end wind gusts looks interesting, it would not surprise me to see a few 40 mph gusts late tonight. Already gusting over 30 mph here with heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 unbelievable storm on radar and satellite. hopefully a sign for the winter ahead. we will get em next time boys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Im surprised your still mixing.. Some flakes are starting to mix in now.. down to 37.5* Down to 32 on the nose now, more toward a snow/sleet mixture still. This is frustrating. Looks like the best banding will set up to my east once again as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 DXR was 46F at 3z...WCSU obs (which almost always run 1.5 to 2.0F cooler than DXR) are down to 38.9 as of 10:43pm. Adjusted temp would be 41F at DXR...my guess is they are at 41 or 40 by 4z. High res NAM makes things very interesting right at the end, but it might be too little too late. either way, a fun storm with some intense dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 +1 lets face it....systems are getting wetter. get a block in place and boom! cold and dry winters are a thing of the past. Part of the reason why I expect a big snow for our area this winter is the warm AMO signal. Until we cool the waters in the West Atlantic, we're going to be dealing with enhanced baroclinicity and stronger thermal gradients as short waves amplify near the east coast. If one looks at the winters in the 1950s and 1960s, precip decreased significantly in the latter decade, and that's largely because the AMO was reaching the minimum of its negative/cold state. Less energy input into the atmosphere when troughs dug into the east. We still had awesome storms and winters in the 60s, but precip was below to well below normal overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 DXR was 46F at 3z...WCSU obs (which almost always run 1.5 to 2.0F cooler than DXR) are down to 38.9 as of 10:43pm. Adjusted temp would be 41F at DXR...my guess is they are at 41 or 40 by 4z. High res NAM makes things very interesting right at the end, but it might be too little too late. either way, a fun storm with some intense dynamics. good to see you reppin D Block. Never though about using WCSU obs. i will google it. winds have really picked up the past 30min... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 39.2* and some decent wind right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 good to see you reppin D Block. Never though about using WCSU obs. i will google it. winds have really picked up the past 30min... http://wcsu.edu/weather/ I recently redesigned their website...didn't have a lot to work with. temps update continuously, but like I said, add 2F for a pretty damn good idea of what the real temps are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Part of the reason why I expect a big snow for our area this winter is the warm AMO signal. Until we cool the waters in the West Atlantic, we're going to be dealing with enhanced baroclinicity and stronger thermal gradients as short waves amplify near the east coast. If one looks at the winters in the 1950s and 1960s, precip decreased significantly in the latter decade, and that's largely because the AMO was reaching the minimum of its negative/cold state. Less energy input into the atmosphere when troughs dug into the east. We still had awesome storms and winters in the 60s, but precip was below to well below normal overall. gotchya. how long do AMO states last in their cycle? Is there a graph of some sort? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 http://wcsu.edu/weather/ I recently redesigned their website...didn't have a lot to work with. temps update continuously, but like I said, add 2F for a pretty damn good idea of what the real temps are looks good. I bookmarked it. thanks! Im on the NW side of town behind ridgewood country club btw....I figure there is gotta be a temp difference around town, considering how big it is. I just moved up here first week of Sept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Whoa just had a nice gust out of no where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 DXR down to 41F...R+ with 0.47 inches in the past hour!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 As modeled, NYC and LI being kept out of the steady and heavy rains. Just some scattered, spotty rain for the past few hours and looks to continue like this. Especially from Brooklyn on east. Glad this isn't a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 As modeled, NYC and LI being kept out of the steady and heavy rains. Just some scattered spotty rain for the past few hours and looks to continue like this. Especially from Brooklyn on east. Glad this isn't a snowstorm. yea. NAM did a great job with the non precip in SE NJ and LI. basically areas along the front and SE was spotty or dry all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 As modeled, NYC and LI being kept out of the steady and heavy rains. Just some scattered, spotty rain for the past few hours and looks to continue like this. Especially from Brooklyn on east. Glad this isn't a snowstorm. Amen. There would have been a lot of weenie suicides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 snywx...all snow yet? are you around or did you go streaking in the rain/snow mix? my temps have crashed here finally. down to 39/40 from 45/46 just an hr or so ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 DCA is getting a rain/snow mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Whipped this up in GEMPAK just for fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 On another note, still moderate to occasionally heavy rain here, already up to 2.36" and still coming down... may end up with 2.75" or nearly 3" when all is said and done. Sheesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 38.8F and falling! bright-banding not too far to the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 DCA is getting a rain/snow mix I do not think that is right, all the people in DC have reported only rain. I am just north of Baltimore and we have been getting heavy wet snow for the past hour and a half but nothing is sticking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Surface temps in the far distance NW suburbs have dropped significantly in the past 2 hours. They have also crashed in the highest elevations. Big in the valleys north and west they have been stubborn to drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 I do not think that is right, all the people in DC have reported only rain. I am just north of Baltimore and we have been getting heavy wet snow for the past hour and a half but nothing is sticking. Meteorologist Capital Weather dca ob at 11 p.m. is rain/snow. that's pretty awesome if dca got flakes and leesburg didn't. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 elevation here is only 355' ASL, yet temps are still tumbling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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