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Mid-Week Snowfall for Great Lakes...


Jim Martin

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Chicago may see snow tonight after all:

"THE SNOW POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AS

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM BECOMES MORE ENHANCED WITH THE UPPER COLD

TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MIDWEST. THE DRY AIR IN THE LOW

LEVELS WAS EVIDENT ON THIS EVENINGS DVN SOUNDING...WITH STILL

NOTEWORTHY T/TD SPREAD BELOW 710 MB. IN THE PAST HOUR

THOUGH...MULTIPLE SOUTHEAST IA SITES HAVE BEGUN REPORTING SNOW AS

MORE FORCING LIKELY AIDS IN DEEPER MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN. EVEN

CEDAR RAPIDS HAS SEEN SNOW...WHICH IS BASICALLY DUE WEST OF

CHICAGO /IN OTHER WORDS...SUPPORT FOR LIGHT SNOW HAS REACHED THIS

FAR NORTH/. VARIOUS SHORT TERM MODELS AGREE WITH A PRIMARY CORRIDOR

OF SNOW...MAINLY LIGHT LIKELY...DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL

IL...TOWARDS WATSEKA/RANTOUL/CHAMPAIGN AND INTO NORTHERN IN BY OR

SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS IS IN PLACE WITH SYNOPTIC FORCING...AND

MESOSCALE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT 280-285K AND MID-LEVEL

FRONTOGENESIS ON THE 09.00 NAM. THESE FEATURES ARE SOMEWHAT

TRANSIENT THOUGH...AND THE SHORT-LIVED NATURE LIKELY IS ONLY TO

RESULT IN A HALF AN INCH AT THE MOST. THIS IN LINE WITH THE NAM

AND GFS COBB DATA FOR NEARBY LAFAYETTE. ONE TRICKY ASPECT IS

FURTHER NORTH...WHERE THE HRRR HAS CONTINUOUSLY TRIED TO SHOW SNOW

BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS

OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA. THIS IS IN TANDEM WITH WHEN THE UPPER

TROUGH/POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY COMES ACROSS. HAVING ALREADY

SEEN SNOW THIS FAR NORTH OUT TO OUR WEST...CANNOT RULE OUT SNOW

YET IN CHICAGO. HAVE FURTHER TIGHTENED THE POP GRADIENT IN THE

FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...AS WELL AS SLOWED THE

TEMPERATURE DROP THIS EVENING. THE BULK OF THE CONTINENTAL POLAR

AIR MASS WILL OOZE IN VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MTF"

Des Moines is getting more snow then predicted tonight, moderate snow bands have set up along I-80.

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I see others showing the RR. The latest HRRR has a small area of 2-3" totals on the IN/IL border a few counties south of the lake.

Interesting picture from KILX though. Look at how there's a "hole" around the radar, signifying that the snow is having trouble making it all the way down. You can trace the edge of the snow area and look at the beam elevation agl and get a rough estimate of how far down the snow is penetrating.

post-1820-0-63788600-1323403045.png

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ORD will get it. -SN all the way back to DSM.

Already a dusting here, first sticking snow of the winter.

it will be a shame if ORD misses the record because of a tenth or two.

if the late week system is indeed all rain, we could smash the record and make it into christmas week without any measurable snowfall officially.

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