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Mid-Week Snowfall for Great Lakes...

Jim Martin

By Jim Martin,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Jim Martin

Jim Martin

Posted
Posted

Thought I start this topic... sorry if I am wrong in doing this...

Afternoon Discussion from NWS Cleveland:

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE LOCAL FOR THE

MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE TOMORROW

BUT BY LATE IN THE DAY PARTIAL SUNSHINE SHOULD BE POSSIBLE ALL

AREAS. WILL NEED TO DEAL WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP IN THE

SNOWBELT DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS SHOULD NOT BE A BIG DEAL.

A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE EARLY THURSDAY AND COULD KICK

OFF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. BETTER CHANCES WILL COME FRIDAY

INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER WAVE ARRIVES. BY THAT TIME 850 MB

TEMPS WILL BE IN THE NEG 12 TO 14 DEG RANGE. ALL AREAS WILL GET A

PRECIP MENTION. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

Afternoon Discussion from NWS Wilmington:

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

ON WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL

CONTINUE TO PROVIDE US WITH CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE EARLY

AFTERNOON. AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION TO THE EAST LATE IN THE

DAY...SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY

BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL

CONTINUALLY ADVECT COLD AIR FROM THE NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 40 DEGREE MARK ACROSS THE

FORECAST AREA...AND MAY BE EVEN COOLER THAN THAT IF CLOUD COVER

PERSISTS LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES.

CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES TOWARD

THE GREAT LAKES. LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY

MORNING...AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX SWINGS AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN

EDGE OF THE TROUGH AND PLACES SOME OUR ZONES UNDER THE ASCENT

ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION.

Afternoon Discussion from NWS Northern Indiana:

LONG TERM

/ THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY /

PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM EXPECTED THIS PERIOD WITH THE PRIMARY

FOCUS BEING ON THE PROSPECTS FOR A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

WEAK CAA BEHIND A LOW AMPLITUDE NRN GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE AND

ATTENDANT SFC TROUGH MAY SET THE STAGE FOR A FEW LAKE EFFECT

FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SW LOWER MI ON THURSDAY. LIMITED

MOISTURE...UNFAVORABLE WESTERLY LOW LVL TRAJECTORIES...AND MARGINAL

THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOWER CHC POPS AND

LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. DRY/COLD WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH LVL

CLOUDS ELSEWHERE THURSDAY.

MODELS ALL AGREE ON DEVELOPING A TIGHTENING LOW/MID LVL BAROCLINIC

ZONE IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER-LIKE SHORTWAVE TROUGH

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE RESULTING MID LVL

FRONTOGENESIS AND FRONTAL SCALE CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY GET A BOOST

FROM INCREASING BROAD LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING

POS PV ANOMALY AND RIGHT ENTRANCE UPPER JET SUPPORT. THIS SHOULD

RESULT IN A DEVELOPING BAND OF LGT/MOD SNOW SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SRN

GREAT LAKES DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THIS BAND WILL LIKELY BE

VERY NARROW GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE WITH CURRENT THINKING BEING

AMOUNTS RANGING FROM LESS THAN AN INCH SOUTH TO AS MUCH AS AN INCH

OR TWO IN THE NORTH. MODELS TEND TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF IN

THESE CASES...SO HALVED QPF FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND USED A 15:1

RATIO AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING A RELATIVELY DEEP/MOIST DGZ

(150 MB) COLLOCATED WITH MAX OMEGA...AND LIGHT WINDS/COLD PROFILE

BELOW IT. BUMPED UP POPS A LITTLE...ESPECIALLY NW...BUT REMAINED

SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE GIVEN DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT/TIMING FROM

MODELS.

EXPECT A BRIEF SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS

THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A BRIEF

WINDOW FOR LE SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NW INDIANA AND SW LOWER MICHIGAN

FRIDAY AFTN/NIGHT AS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A

LAKE RESPONSE. HOWEVER...WITH MODEL RH PROGS VERY DRY ABOVE 850 HPA

AND EXPECTED LIMITED PARCEL RESIDENCE TIME PER WNW MEAN BOUNDARY

LAYER FLOW DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMS AND RETAINED ONLY

LOWER CHC POPS. THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK

WITH WARMER/FLATTER QUASI-ZONAL FLOW TAKING HOLD ON THE REGION.

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Geos

Geos

Posted
Posted

A little snow cover out ahead of the arctic blast would strengthen the cold for sure. The AFD for Chicago says this about northern IL. :

"MOST GUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM AND SREF HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT ON A BAND OF LIGHT QPF OVER ALL OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. TIME HEIGHTS AND SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW ADEQUATE SATURATION AND LIFT INTO THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH AREA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET MAY PROVIDE SOME ENHANCED LIFT. WITH COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...EXPECTING 20:1 RATIO...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN THE FIRST LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AT THIS POINT...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO SEE IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH OF SNOWFALL. NOT HIGH CONFIDENCE YET ON THIS FEATURE...SO DID STAY WITH CHANCE POPS AS OPPOSED TO HIGHER POPS. IT MAY COME DOWN TO VERY CLOSE TO THE EVENT UNTIL THE PART OF THE AREA WITH THE BEST FORCING FOR LIGHT SNOW IS ASCERTAINED."

We really need to work on that snow deficit around here!

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Geos

Geos

Posted
Posted

DVN discussion is suggesting a northward trend for this clipper.

Quote: "FORCING SWATHS INDICATED BY THE 12Z RUN ECMWF HAVE TRENDED NORTH ENOUGH TO SUGGEST THE HEAVIER SNOW AMOUNTS MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR IN BANDED AREAS ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR. STILL WITH SOME UNCERTAINTIES AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WAVE ENERGY TO BE BETTER SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK...WILL RAISE POPS TO HIGH CHC ACRS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE DVN CWA FOR THU NIGHT...AND A SHARP DROP OFF TO THE NORTH. BUT THIS IDEA MAY HAVE TO BE SHIFTED BACK NORTH IF THE NEW ECMWF AND EVEN THE UKMET HAVE THEIR WAY. WOULD EXPECT A NORTHWARD MIGRATION IN THE SOLUTION OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HRS"

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jhamps10

jhamps10

Posted
Posted

Not bad looking, wouldn't mind it a touch south. all I want is a snowfall to cover the ground. That bit last week was a major disappointment, with the less than 1" melted by 11pm.

LOL at least you got to see snow Brent... didn't happen over here minus a few flakes that tried to mix in with the rain.... and failed!

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted

lol...

0z ECMWF:

DVN: 0.01"

PIA: 0.02"

DEC: 0.01"

MDW: 0.01"

VPZ: 0.03"

LAF: 0.02"

IND: 0.02"

OKK: 0.03"

FWA: 0.03"

BTL: 0.03"

ADG: 0.05"

DTW: 0.06"

PTK: 0.04"

TDZ: 0.05"

DAY: 0.01"

CLE: 0.06"

YKF: 0.09"

YYZ: 0.05"

Ugly

DAB-1" is my call right now and I'd like to fast forward at least 10 days as it looks like crap until then.

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Geos

Geos

Posted
Posted

Sounds like Izzi is trying to be optimistic still about this snow event for LOT.

"BEFORE THE COLD ARRIVES...WE HAVE TO DEAL WITH A POTENTIAL LIGHTLY ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK ARE FAIRLY STRONG...SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND NEARLY VOID OF ANY SURFACE OR LOW LEVEL REFLECTION. DESPITE THE LACK OF MOISTURE OR LOW LEVEL CYCLONE IT DOES APPEAR LIKELY THAT A NARROW BAND OF FRONTOGENETICALLY DRIVEN SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE THERMALLY DIRECT VERTICAL CIRCULATION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 100KT+ 250MB JET. SEVERAL HOURS OF FORCING WILL LIKELY BE WASTED ON SATURATING THE LOWER LEVELS...BUT ONCE SATURATION DOES OCCUR A BRIEF SHOT OF DECENT SNOW COULD OCCUR. WITH SO MUCH MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THIS BAND AND LIKELY EVENTUAL NARROW SWATH OF ANY ACCUMULATION...AM STILL RELUCTANT TO BUMP POPS UP TO LIKELY JUST YET...AND CONFINE THE HIGHER POPS TO OUR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF ACCUMULATION SEEMS TO BE. DESPITE THE LIKELY LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS (GENERALLY AN INCH OR TWO AT MOST)...COULD BE A SOMEWHAT HIGHER SOCIETAL IMPACT EVENT SINCE IT LIKELY WONT GET THE SAME HYPE A HEADLINE WORTHY EVENT MIGHT GET."

The problem is that the cold air is taking over and drying things out too much.

Update: On the other hand the newest SREF came out and shows a decent stripe of snow between ORD & MKX!

SREF_SNOWFALL_MAX_f039.gif

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