OSUmetstud Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 12z Euro targets the city and the immediate northern suburbs for the heaviest accumulation..it's a few miles south of the 00z run. It's max is a bit south of where the 12z WRF would put the heaviest accumulations. Perhaps an airport/Williamsville max? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 12z Euro targets the city and the immediate northern suburbs for the heaviest accumulation..it's a few miles south of the 00z run. It's max is a bit south of where the 12z WRF would put the heaviest accumulations. Perhaps an airport/Williamsville max? Sounds beautiful as I live in cleve hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F08%2F2011+12UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p48&pdesc=&model=HRW-ARW-EUS&area=EUS&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=048&areaDesc=Eastern+United+States&prevArea=EUS&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M id die of happiness lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 snow should be pretty wet...maybe or 10 or 12:1...not classic lake-effect fluff. 850s are -7c to -9C and temps should be in the low 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Tonight: Snow, mainly after 10pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 34. Southwest wind between 8 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Friday: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. High near 36. West wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. From NWS for Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 some lake-effect cu is coming off of Lake Erie already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 some lake-effect cu is coming off of Lake Erie already. Nothing on radar yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 8, 2011 Author Share Posted December 8, 2011 Hmm 18z nam keeps this thing close to the southtowns after it sinks southwards in the afternoon till midnight,bufkit profiles also show a moderate lake instability.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Hey that looks like fun for me tomorrow driving back east from Hamilton over to Niagara Falls and then eventually the Thruway east.... with that southwest flow. I may not get to that area until mid or late afternoon...depends on when I finish work in Hamilton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 9, 2011 Author Share Posted December 9, 2011 Environment Canada issued a snow squall watch for Niagara falls Ontario,they're calling for 4 inches tonight and another 5 tomorrow. Niagara Falls - Welland - Southern Niagara Region8:39 PM EST Thursday 08 December 2011 Snow squall watch for Niagara Falls - Welland - Southern Niagara Region continued Snow squalls likely from tonight to Friday afternoon. Cold westerly winds over the relatively warm waters of Northern Lake Huron and Georgian Bay will continue to generate locally heavy flurries from time to time and move into the Parry Sound - Muskoka and Burk's Falls - Bayfield Inlet regions. Snow squalls may temporarily affect the Southern Haliburton region this evening. Conditions will become more favourable for stronger and more organized snow squalls to develop late this evening across Northern Georgian Bay and move into the Burk's Falls - Bayfield Inlet region. Local snowfall amounts of 10 cm tonight and 15 cm on Friday will be possible there. Over the Parry Sound - Muskoka region tonight and Friday. Weaker bands of lake effect snow are expected to continue. Current indications suggest that conditions over Southern Georgian Bay will become more favourable for snow squalls to develop Friday night as the winds becoming more northwesterly. Over the Lower Great Lakes, conditions will become more favourable for snow squalls to develop over Lake Erie overnight. Southwesterly winds could bring 10 cm of wet snow into the Niagara Falls - Welland - Southern Niagara Region tonight and another 15 cm on Friday. However, the snow should be wet enough to melt on most Major roads initially but will accumulate enough before day break to affect travel. Driving conditions will deteriorate tonight with accumulating snow on untreated roads. Motorists should allow extra time to reach their destination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 9, 2011 Author Share Posted December 9, 2011 NYZ010-091030-NORTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO 850 PM EST THU DEC 8 2011 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY... .TONIGHT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING TOWARD MIDNIGHT. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER POSSIBLE LATE. ACCUMULATION 2 TO 4 INCHES IN MOST PERSISTENT SNOWS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT. .FRIDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION 3 TO 5 INCHES. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING WEST. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT. .FRIDAY NIGHT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE EVENING...THEN SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY OVERNIGHT. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE EVENING. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOWS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 the models have really backed the surface winds over the last 12-24...it seems that this shortwave has got a little more punch than originally modeled. I might be lucky to see 3" lol. I'll probably take a drive northward...at least to the old house in Riverside tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Getting some light dendritic snow here in Oswego starting to coat the ground. It looks from the radar like it is mainly synoptic with some enhancement from Lake Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 About an inch here on the border of Cheek/Amherst. Just light snow right now. Looks like the heaviest snow is staying over far N. Erie and Niagara counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Half an inch in Hamburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 9, 2011 Author Share Posted December 9, 2011 0 inches here not even a coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 fail? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 0 inches here not even a coating. where do you live? There was a solid coating in most places at 7-10 am...BUF airport had 1.2"..it's melted since. It was general snowfall from the warm advection...not true lake-effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 9, 2011 Author Share Posted December 9, 2011 where do you live? There was a solid coating in most places at 7-10 am...BUF airport had 1.2"..it's melted since. It was general snowfall from the warm advection...not true lake-effect. by the peace bridge,it was raining when it was snowing in other places haha lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 by the peace bridge,it was raining when it was snowing in other places haha lol.. oh weird...whoops. My bad on that forecast yesterday thinking no rain. I got like 0.5" in West Seneca. The band will come back in the few hours...and hopefully it drops a few inches on those who haven't gotten much on it's way down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 oh weird...whoops. My bad on that forecast yesterday thinking no rain. I got like 0.5" in West Seneca. The band will come back in the few hours...and hopefully it drops a few inches on those who haven't gotten much on it's way down south. If the return band fizzles, most locations will barely meet advisory criteria, let alone warning criteria. Grass is already poking through the snow here, and all pavement is dry... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 If the return band fizzles, most locations will barely meet advisory criteria, let alone warning criteria. Grass is already poking through the snow here, and all pavement is dry... Yeah I think warning criteria anywhere looks tough...advisory is doable depending on how long the band stay in your particular location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Lockport already has 5-6 inches with another 2-4 coming through. They are one of few locations to possibly hit warning criteria. As pointed out that didn't look like LES eariler, Looked more enhanced from the warm air advection as the Met brought out. If the band comes through later in the day after the sun is down, I could see shooting up the whole fetch of lake erie to get 4-6 through most of the metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 9, 2011 Author Share Posted December 9, 2011 Lockport already has 5-6 inches with another 2-4 coming through. They are one of few locations to possibly hit warning criteria. As pointed out that didn't look like LES eariler, Looked more enhanced from the warm air advection as the Met brought out. If the band comes through later in the day after the sun is down, I could see shooting up the whole fetch of lake erie to get 4-6 through most of the metro. lol i feel bad for the city's plow drivers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Only about an inch left on the grass here. But that band looks like its gaining some steam as the fetch increases. Id be super happy if that band could drop 2-4 inches later when it comes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Wowww. What a bust. The little snow were gettin here right now is mixing with rain which is further melting whatever snow is left on the grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 ayuud...I'm blaming this one on you...if you hadn't spelled "the" wrong in thread title...what an event this could have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Probably landed up with a total of 1.3 Inches total. Thats what im gonna put down for todays date even though its mostly melted now and its mostly raining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 9, 2011 Author Share Posted December 9, 2011 ayuud...I'm blaming this one on you...if you hadn't spelled "the" wrong in thread title...what an event this could have been. lol it's raining again where i live while it's snowing couple blocks toward downtown.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 9, 2011 Author Share Posted December 9, 2011 ********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL OF /INCHES/ MEASUREMENT NEW YORK ...ERIE COUNTY... 4 NW AMHERST 3.0 1100 AM 12/09 WIVB 2 E AMHERST 2.7 1100 AM 12/09 NWS EMPLOYEE AMHERST 1.8 1000 AM 12/09 COCORAHS NY BUFFALO INTL ARPT 1.2 1250 PM 12/09 ASOS ...MONROE COUNTY... ROCHESTER INTL ARPT 1.0 100 PM 12/09 CO-OP OBSERVER ...NIAGARA COUNTY... 1 ENE LOCKPORT 3.9 1030 AM 12/09 COCORAHS 3 SSW SANBORN 3.5 1125 AM 12/09 PUBLIC NIAGARA FALLS INTL A 3.3 100 PM 12/09 CO-OP OBSERVER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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