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Quick thump potential Wed night (12/7-12/8/11)


snowgeek

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My wife and kiddies, mother, mother-in-law, etc. are coming back from NYC on a bus trip to see the Rockets expecting to be in Oneonta between 10:00 and 11:00. That could be a fun ride.

I take that bus all of the time. I am down in the City where it's raining, but not too bad..wishing I was up in DE county. We are 2000ft there, but your posts seem a bit colder than us usually. (We are in Andes.) Tonight I imagine it's almost the same, so I look forward to your updates. Do you take 10 to 28 to Oneonta? I know that drive well. BTW: How much did you get in the Oct storm? We had 4 the Thurs before it with the frontal passage and then about 6-7 for that storm. I will be up this weekend, and I am looking forward to Lake Effect snow showers.

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Temps really struggling here. Seems to finally be creeping down after sitting at 37-38 most of the afternoon. Might be a couple flakes trying to mix in...may also just be big fat raindrops. Tough to tell. Still liking my 2-4" call. Was holding out hope those fantasy NAM runs would verify...but not looking likely.

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Temps really struggling here. Seems to finally be creeping down after sitting at 37-38 most of the afternoon. Might be a couple flakes trying to mix in...may also just be big fat raindrops. Tough to tell. Still liking my 2-4" call. Was holding out hope those fantasy NAM runs would verify...but not looking likely.

There are almost certainly partially melted snowflakes mixing in. Bright banding is lighting up the radar in the Catskills and south of ALB. The 0C line at 850 - apprx the warmest level - is approaching from the west. I bet it's mostly snow above 1200ft right now, at least west of the river.

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Still just rain and 38 degrees here in Queensbury.

Not looking good for us. Intense bands winding down as they push out of Saratoga. Changeover still driven by dynamics at this point and we simply don't have enough falling to get it done. Unless we flip over by 10, I would think the GFS idea of 2 or 3 inches in the wee hours as the back end slides through would verify.
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There are almost certainly partially melted snowflakes mixing in. Bright banding is lighting up the radar in the Catskills and south of ALB. The 0C line at 850 - apprx the warmest level - is approaching from the west. I bet it's mostly snow above 1200ft right now, at least west of the river.

Yep...definitely can tell now...flakes. Temp down a degree in the last 30 min too.

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Yep...definitely can tell now...flakes. Temp down a degree in the last 30 min too.

Sounds like it's a little ahead of schedule. Earlier runs didn't have you turning over until about 04Z or so and me until about 06Z. I was wondering if the bright banding was producing any frozen at the surface.

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Looking at the radar it seems like things continue to contract southeast....doesn't seem like a nice trend.

It's light to moderate snow here and 32F. Maybe 3/4's of an inch... This won't come close to the forecast amount unless a hail mary intense band can set up for a few hours.

Snow level (in terms of sticking) is about 800-900 feet near Duanesburg and that's where it was an hour ago. I was over in Colonie and saw slushy flakes mixing in, but mainly rain.

About an inch of the wet stuff. 32.9 degrees.

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Starting to think that you made the right decision not raising your totals. Mostly snow here now. It switched over ahead of schedule, but I'm not liking radar trends....and NAM trends. Hopefully band sets up soon and eastward progress slows as low deepens or your 2-4" might be high. Come on frontogenesis!!!!

Temps really struggling here. Seems to finally be creeping down after sitting at 37-38 most of the afternoon. Might be a couple flakes trying to mix in...may also just be big fat raindrops. Tough to tell. Still liking my 2-4" call. Was holding out hope those fantasy NAM runs would verify...but not looking likely.

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well this is a bust.. the ground is barely coated and the back edge is approaching quicker than expected. it's pathetic how horribly the 18z nam handled the axis of heaviest precip and storm track for that matter. the new theme is to shift every storm southeast by 30 miles at the last minute thumbsdownsmileyanim.gif

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Feels like a bust to me too. Low should deepen rapidly over the next few hours which should slow eastward progress, but it looks like if meso banding develops if should be southeast of the CD. Ground is so warm and wet, looks like we'll be lucky to pull off 1-3" on grassy surfaces. Hope I'm wrong.

well this is a bust.. the ground is barely coated and the back edge is approaching quicker than expected. it's pathetic how horribly the 18z nam handled the axis of heaviest precip and storm track for that matter. the new theme is to shift every storm southeast by 30 miles at the last minute thumbsdownsmileyanim.gif

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The vaunted Euro blew it also... I guess for the wx hobbyist/weenie ...the best policy is to not trust a high snowfall forecast if you are within 50 miles of the nw fringe. :) Burnt too many times....

But it's a few pretty inches out there so could certainly be worse. SN and 31.6... Back edge seems to be holding in there for the moment.

well this is a bust.. the ground is barely coated and the back edge is approaching quicker than expected. it's pathetic how horribly the 18z nam handled the axis of heaviest precip and storm track for that matter. the new theme is to shift every storm southeast by 30 miles at the last minute thumbsdownsmileyanim.gif

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What's with this trend of the banding setting up to our SE. Looks like it's setting up in SE Columbia County, although some of it is prob bright banding. Off to sleep for me. I hope we have a delay tomorrow or the students aren't gonna be happy with old Mr. Young.....oy!

The vaunted Euro blew it also... I guess for the wx hobbyist/weenie ...the best policy is to not trust a high snowfall forecast if you are within 50 miles of the nw fringe. smile.png Burnt too many times....

But it's a few pretty inches out there so could certainly be worse. SN and 31.6... Back edge seems to be holding in there for the moment.

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The vaunted Euro blew it also... I guess for the wx hobbyist/weenie ...the best policy is to not trust a high snowfall forecast if you are within 50 miles of the nw fringe. smile.png Burnt too many times....

But it's a few pretty inches out there so could certainly be worse. SN and 31.6... Back edge seems to be holding in there for the moment.

we should know better by now laugh.png but yeah I would be thrilled if we were to finish with a couple inches here.. the ground is coated now so we'll probably be looking at around an inch total in the valley before its all over.

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When I was a kid the best banding always seemed to set up around here west of ALB in good Noreasters (or so I perceived watching Bob Kovachick, Howard Tupper and the other tv wx guys). I thought it would be a pretty good place to live and season snowfall hasn't been too shabby! Our day in the will come again no doubt....it's just cyclical.

What's with this trend of the banding setting up to our SE. Looks like it's setting up in SE Columbia County, although some of it is prob bright banding. Off to sleep for me. I hope we have a delay tomorrow or the students aren't gonna be happy with old Mr. Young.....oy!

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It looks like the enhanced banding is about 40 miles southeast of where the NAM/ECM put it.... Small error in the overall scheme of things.

we should know better by now laugh.png but yeah I would be thrilled if we were to finish with a couple inches here.. the ground is coated now so we'll probably be looking at around an inch total in the valley before its all over.

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I don't think this is just a matter of a misplaced mesoscale band. The entire precipitation shield in general is just not as robust as forecasted. I think I see the culprit. A little bit of last minute convective mischief is offshore.

34tcv3b.jpg

Such a feature does two negative things towards our snowfall prospects. First, it will rob moisture from the main axis of precipitation, making it more scattered in nature and overall featuring weaker reflectivity. Second, it will tend to pull the surface low further offshore, forcing the precipitation that ends up wrapping on the NW side of the system also be displaced further west. In this case its more noticeable since this prevents most of the real heavy precipitation from being located in the area cold enough to support snowfall. The end result is a storm that likely won't live up to the expectations of the most recent suite of computer models.

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I take that bus all of the time. I am down in the City where it's raining, but not too bad..wishing I was up in DE county. We are 2000ft there, but your posts seem a bit colder than us usually. (We are in Andes.) Tonight I imagine it's almost the same, so I look forward to your updates. Do you take 10 to 28 to Oneonta? I know that drive well. BTW: How much did you get in the Oct storm? We had 4 the Thurs before it with the frontal passage and then about 6-7 for that storm. I will be up this weekend, and I am looking forward to Lake Effect snow showers.

I ended up with a total of 4". Not to bad, but under the 6-10 forcasted.

I know 10 and 28 real well, at least the portions in Delaware County. I got 3" before the Oct. storm and about 6" for the storm itself. Looks like a decent chance of seeing snow flying this weekend but no real accumulations.

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I don't think this is just a matter of a misplaced mesoscale band. The entire precipitation shield in general is just not as robust as forecasted. I think I see the culprit. A little bit of last minute convective mischief is offshore.

34tcv3b.jpg

Such a feature does two negative things towards our snowfall prospects. First, it will rob moisture from the main axis of precipitation, making it more scattered in nature and overall featuring weaker reflectivity. Second, it will tend to pull the surface low further offshore, forcing the precipitation that ends up wrapping on the NW side of the system also be displaced further west. In this case its more noticeable since this prevents most of the real heavy precipitation from being located in the area cold enough to support snowfall. The end result is a storm that likely won't live up to the expectations of the most recent suite of computer models.

Yeah...another bust. Picked up about 0.75" in my locale. Really thought my 2-4" was a safe call...as even the Euro and GFS supported that even with heavier banding setting up to our south. Blah!

I don't know if it was really a situation of misplaced banding or even robustness...I feel like the timing was just off. I mean it was absolutely pooring between 5pm and 9pm last night...and it seemed like we were in the heaviest banding...its just it was a few hours too early so temperatures were up an extra couple degrees. By the time the atmosphere cooled enough, heaviest banding had shifted SE. But who knows...its a bust no matter how you justify it.

When will we learn? A warm BL layer isn't easily overcome...especially when the system is hauling azz.

At least it looks like winter for a few hours.

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