Logan11 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Quick glimpse of new NAM seems to show good banding right over the CD at h9 and still at h12, but about to pull east. The low tracks over HVN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I completely agree with this! Its all about the mesoscale banding at this point. The NAM does have some support from the HRRR, except its a couple hours faster with the mesoscale band setup over KALB. Still not too bad of an agreement. If either the 4 km NAM or the HRRR pan out, I wouldn't be surprised if there are a few reports of thundersnow overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Well you could always take a drive. I have business in ITH occasionally and in the winter I always see snow depth increase a lot as you head east (and up in elevation) toward Dryden. In think that is route 13. Yeah, I'm pretty sure the eastern edge of Tompkins County got about twice as much snow as we did last year. Watching those LES bands in December crush Dryden while leaving Ithaca with nothing was very frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I bet ALB is thinking about advisories for the CD and possibly upgrading the western zones. 3" is starting to look like a better lower end than upper end of a range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Yeah, I'm pretty sure the eastern edge of Tompkins County got about twice as much snow as we did last year. Watching those LES bands in December crush Dryden while leaving Ithaca with nothing was very frustrating. Take a ride just to the ne of campus, believe its called varna...turkey hill road gets up high, probably highest point in the gerenal ithaca area...use to drive up their on borderline situations and it was always snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I bet ALB is thinking about advisories for the CD and possibly upgrading the western zones. 3" is starting to look like a better lower end than upper end of a range. I don't know how they can. Even the farther SE guidance would yield a solid 2-3". If the banding makes it into Albany things will go apesh** for a few hours and probably catch people off guard. I don't really see the downside of putting up an advisory at this point. Sure you bust if low end verifies...but if the NAM verifies you're borderline warning criteria. NAM held strong though...just by guestimating from the graphics...probably cut back a bit on QPF after the switch (still around 10pm for ALB)...but its' still a solid 0.8-0.9" QPF after that. EDIT: Just got the text that NWS pulled the trigger on the advisory as I posted this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I don't know how they can. Even the farther SE guidance would yield a solid 2-3". If the banding makes it into Albany things will go apesh** for a few hours and probably catch people off guard. I don't really see the downside of putting up an advisory at this point. Sure you bust if low end verifies...but if the NAM verifies you're borderline warning criteria. NAM held strong though...just by guestimating from the graphics...probably cut back a bit on QPF after the switch (still around 10pm for ALB)...but its' still a solid 0.8-0.9" QPF after that. EDIT: Just got the text that NWS pulled the trigger on the advisory as I posted this. It was as though they read my post ... or more likely your analysis. But they did exactly what I thought they would... upgrading the western counties to warning, posting advisories for the valleys, and setting 3" as the lower end of the snowfall range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 7, 2011 Author Share Posted December 7, 2011 They're going for 4-8" in ALB now lol! I don't know how they can. Even the farther SE guidance would yield a solid 2-3". If the banding makes it into Albany things will go apesh** for a few hours and probably catch people off guard. I don't really see the downside of putting up an advisory at this point. Sure you bust if low end verifies...but if the NAM verifies you're borderline warning criteria. NAM held strong though...just by guestimating from the graphics...probably cut back a bit on QPF after the switch (still around 10pm for ALB)...but its' still a solid 0.8-0.9" QPF after that. EDIT: Just got the text that NWS pulled the trigger on the advisory as I posted this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I don't know how they can. Even the farther SE guidance would yield a solid 2-3". If the banding makes it into Albany things will go apesh** for a few hours and probably catch people off guard. I don't really see the downside of putting up an advisory at this point. Sure you bust if low end verifies...but if the NAM verifies you're borderline warning criteria. NAM held strong though...just by guestimating from the graphics...probably cut back a bit on QPF after the switch (still around 10pm for ALB)...but its' still a solid 0.8-0.9" QPF after that. To me it looks like 1"+ after initial mixing between 8-9pm on the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 RUC is pretty far west lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 To me it looks like 1"+ after initial mixing between 8-9pm on the 18z NAM. yeah...looking at the bufkit data you're right...somewhere around 1.1". shaping up to be a fun night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 7, 2011 Author Share Posted December 7, 2011 20Z RUC has low tracking from Queens to Boston! Seems pretty far west. Sleep tonight??????? Fawgetaboudit!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Man, that new RUC looks good! Do I dare to dream? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I should take a nap now.... I have to get the driveway cleared and then leave around 8:30 AM for Hamilton, Ontario...about a five hour ride west. Too bad this couldn't have come a day earlier, but not complaining! 35.3 here now.... Report says that Charlotteville (1500') in southwest Schoharie County has an inch of snow down, +SN..... 20Z RUC has low tracking from Queens to Boston! Seems pretty far west. Sleep tonight??????? Fawgetaboudit!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Flakes starting to mix in, here in east herkimer.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 35.3 here now.... Report says that Charlotteville (1500') in southwest Schoharie County has an inch of snow down, +SN..... I wish it would head a bit south as I am tired of hearing the rain on the roof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Man, that new RUC looks good! Do I dare to dream? I tend to find the RUC and HRRR overestimating the northwestern extent of many winter storms, not sure why. It definitely did that back during the October nor'easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Catskills Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I wish it would head a bit south as I am tired of hearing the rain on the roof. Yup. Rain coming down pretty heavy at times. 37.6 here and no mixing yet. Wow, if this had all been snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 My mom and sister have been traveling up I-88 out of PA. Now they must be only about 30 minutes southwest of here .... They tell me that all along from BGM it has been snow on the higher ridges and then back to mix or rain in the low spots.... By now maybe it's snow everywhere at the southwest end in greater BGM, but they passed through there around 4:30.... Yup. Rain coming down pretty heavy at times. 37.6 here and no mixing yet. Wow, if this had all been snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I'm headed home from East Greenbush now... I'll provide a report from up on the hill when I arrive home. My mom and sister have been traveling up I-88 out of PA. Now they must be only about 30 minutes southwest of here .... They tell me that all along from BGM it has been snow on the higher ridges and then back to mix or rain in the low spots.... By now maybe it's snow everywhere at the southwest end in greater BGM, but they passed through there around 4:30.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Just rain and 35.2 here now..... I'm headed home from East Greenbush now... I'll provide a report from up on the hill when I arrive home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Yup. Rain coming down pretty heavy at times. 37.6 here and no mixing yet. Wow, if this had all been snow... Over to big fat flakes now. No real accumulation yet and I have apparently broken my outside thermometer by changing the batteries so I have no idea what the temp is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 My mom and sister have been traveling up I-88 out of PA. Now they must be only about 30 minutes southwest of here .... They tell me that all along from BGM it has been snow on the higher ridges and then back to mix or rain in the low spots.... By now maybe it's snow everywhere at the southwest end in greater BGM, but they passed through there around 4:30.... My wife and kiddies, mother, mother-in-law, etc. are coming back from NYC on a bus trip to see the Rockets expecting to be in Oneonta between 10:00 and 11:00. That could be a fun ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Catskills Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Over to big fat flakes now. No real accumulation yet and I have apparently broken my outside thermometer by changing the batteries so I have no idea what the temp is. 36.1 here, dropping steadily. Mixing has commenced, no flakes yet, more like graupel. I think when it does snow, it's going to be heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Moderate Rain in downtown Albany. Expecting some pretty large flakes when this changes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 All snow here at 1,400. Huge flakes. But not coming down hard enough and/or not cold enough to accumulate yet. Temp is 33.8. Just rain and 35.2 here now..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 8, 2011 Author Share Posted December 8, 2011 23Z RUC is a bit warmer, low is further SE, precip bit more intense......silly to watch it every hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 8, 2011 Author Share Posted December 8, 2011 Rain with temp stuck at 39F here, up from 38F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Yep here now as well. It went to mainly wet snow around 7:45. Now it is all snow and 33.3F...just a little sticking on the deck. All snow here at 1,400. Huge flakes. But not coming down hard enough and/or not cold enough to accumulate yet. Temp is 33.8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Couchsachraga Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Still just rain and 38 degrees here in Queensbury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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