snowgeek Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 All 3 network station TV Mets are downplaying event for CD mentioning little if any accumulation. Channel 6 was highest with "maybe 1-3"" They all mentioned lots of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 No cajones in TV weather around here with Andy sidelined. All 3 network station TV Mets are downplaying event for CD mentioning little if any accumulation. Channel 6 was highest with "maybe 1-3"" They all mentioned lots of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 HPC Looks good to me. I'd like to say thanks to the pros (and the other knowledgable ones) insight here. I know nothing so I will stay quiet until I can report some obs, but I love reading everyones thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 RGEM snowfall HPC buying the westward shift, kalb not so much.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 UKMET looks good for Upstate New York, but is too warm for rain at the start in most areas due to warm 2m temps. It calls for Ithaca to be at about 40 degrees when the precip starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 RGEM snowfall HPC buying the westward shift, kalb not so much.. This would bring me lots of neige Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 00Z NAM takes the precip further West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 NAM clownmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 NAM clownmap I guess that map is saying the lightest green stripe is 1-2 inches, so the graphic doesn't show areas that get a trace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I wouldn't take it too seriously. Some aspects of it just don't make sense. I guess that map is saying the lightest green stripe is 1-2 inches, so the graphic doesn't show areas that get a trace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I wouldn't take it too seriously. Some aspects of it just don't make sense. Yeah I don't take it seriously, but it does have its usefulness in showing the tight gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 The NWS is loosely calling for 1-3 in Saratoga County and an inch for Glens Falls in the AFD. I say loosely because they have a note that says the snowfall totals may be adjusted upwards depending on what the models are saying. That was the 10:00 pm update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Plowable for you. The NWS is loosely calling for 1-3 in Saratoga County and an inch for Glens Falls in the AFD. I say loosely because they have a note that says the snowfall totals may be adjusted upwards depending on what the models are saying. That was the 10:00 pm update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 7, 2011 Author Share Posted December 7, 2011 Temp has been steadily falling in ALB. 39/37 with a light north wind. NWS forecast is for steady temps in low 40's tonight.....hmmmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 It looks like we have to put up with rain longer tomorrow evening, but it also looks like we may be in a great comma head snow situation for several intense hours later evening. Hard and fast several inches probably. BTW 11 PM tv guys forecasts didn't reflect the reality at all....lazy or prudent? They didn't seem to pay attention to the 0Z runs at all. Temp has been steadily falling in ALB. 39/37 with a light north wind. NWS forecast is for steady temps in low 40's tonight.....hmmmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I was surprised to see that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 00z GFS is now fully on board for a pretty significant precipitation event. Its also significantly warmer than the ECMWF in the early going, although it still sends the 850mb low east of KALB, so we should see a transition at some point Wednesday Night as the heaviest precipitation moves in. If the ECWMF ends up verifying though, this transition could be earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 00z GFS is now fully on board for a pretty significant precipitation event. Its also significantly warmer than the ECMWF in the early going, although it still sends the 850mb low east of KALB, so we should see a transition at some point Wednesday Night as the heaviest precipitation moves in. If the ECWMF ends up verifying though, this transition could be earlier. It would be nice to see the 00z euro hold steady.. a slight westward adjustment wouldn't hurt too much as we'd get in on some nice CCB snows as the storm pulls away. 00z ukmet looked almost identical to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I would take the NAM clown please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 00z euro looks good.. very similar to 12z just slightly northwest with the precip shield. temps look almost identical maybe a hair warmer to begin with but crashes quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 00z euro looks good.. very similar to 12z just slightly northwest with the precip shield. temps look almost identical maybe a hair warmer to begin with but crashes quick. Pretty much exactly what we wanted to see for Albany... it seems the models are finally starting to lock in their solutions. Again we might start slightly too warm (till around 9-10pm) when things should quickly change over to very heavy wet snow, with 1"+ snowfall rates for a good 6 hour period. That 850mb low never gets west of our location, but it doesn't tighten up fast enough (thanks to the low being a bit strung out initially) so we don't get very efficient CAA till the middle part of tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 This one is going to be close. Euro and NAM are in pretty close agreement it seems. For the capital region, column seems to get cold enough to support the flip sometime between 10pm and midnight. Both the NAM and Euro then put out somewhere around 0.5" QPF after that point...with given what may be some lousy ratios should still equate to a 2-4" snow for valley...more in the higher elevations. If the area were to get into the heaviest banding (which I'm thinking may set up just to the south as it did for the Halloween storm), then the potential is there for some even higher amounts...but given how quickly this thing will be moving and the uncertainty with the changeover, it tough to justify a forecast any higher than that (for the valley anyway). Higher elevations to the south could easily pick up 4-8" with this. They'll flip a little earlier and potentially get into some of the heavier banding. Bottom line is everything hinges on how quickly the changeover occurs. Bust potential is still pretty high...shift the precip shield 25 miles south of where modeled and Albany misses out on heavier precip rates which will have a hard time generating decent accumulations even after the flip. Wouldn't take much for this to bust and turn into nothing but a slushy inch or less for the valley. Really a shame there's nothing to slow this storm down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 12z NAM seems to want to bring the banding into ALB...can we flip early enough to take advantage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Well it puts out over an inch of qpf here (maybe 1.2") after the 0C 850 line crosses us at 0Z.... Dunno if we will have some lag after 0Z to get the changeover, but certainly looks like a snow bomb for awhile tonight. 35.6/34 now 12z NAM seems to want to bring the banding into ALB...can we flip early enough to take advantage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 7, 2011 Author Share Posted December 7, 2011 Helderberg's gonna get creamed!!!!! Dynamic cooing FTW!!! I have bad memories of watching it pour and watching the temperature crawl ever so slowly towards freezing. 12Z NAM looked a smidge colder at 850mb. Looking like a hard to predict slushy mess. Bust potential feels high either way. 12z NAM seems to want to bring the banding into ALB...can we flip early enough to take advantage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Well it puts out over an inch of qpf here (maybe 1.2") after the 0C 850 line crosses us at 0Z.... Dunno if we will have some lag after 0Z to get the changeover, but certainly looks like a snow bomb for awhile tonight. 35.6/34 now Looking at the sounding data...it does look a tad cooler as well. The 6z run had SFC temps at 3.2C in Albany at 3z...with 850 just above 0 still at 3z. 12z run much cooler at the surface at 3z...0.7C...with 850 now just below 0. It then brings in the heaviest banding after that point dropping 0.75-1.0" QPF. That suggests all the lowball calls for this system are in serious jeopardy. We'll see if this run gets support from the rest of the 12z models. In any case...I think you do well up there in the hills. Even before the 12z I would've said you'll make a run at 6". I don't know how this plays out in the valley...but I remain optimistic...which is a bit out of character for me. I'm usually as conservative when it comes to forecasting as it comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Latest 12z NAM bufkit for Albany has precipitation changing over at 03z Thursday with 6 hours of heavy snow following. It has around 1.25" of liquid equivalent precip as snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Latest 12z NAM bufkit for Albany has precipitation changing over at 03z Thursday with 6 hours of heavy snow following. It has around 1.25" of liquid equivalent precip as snowfall. Any idea if these coolwx plots are based off Bufkit data? http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NY&stn=KALB&model=nam&time=2011120712&field=prec Pretty much agrees with what you said...and I notice in the url it says 'getbufr'...just curious. I haven't bothered to download bufkit...but I do look at those coolwx plots from time to time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Any idea if these coolwx plots are based off Bufkit data? I believe that the bufkit data is interpolated from the nearest model grid points for each bufr station so the bufr meteograms from the coolwx site should be the same as bufkit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 7, 2011 Author Share Posted December 7, 2011 WITH REGARD TO TONIGHT/S STORM...THE FIRST ISSUE WILL BE UPDATING THE CURRENT SUITE OF WINTER WEATHER STATEMENTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST 12Z/NAM CONTINUES TO SUGGEST HEAVY QPF...ALTHOUGH LINGERING A BIT LONGER...PAST 06Z...WHEN THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. EXTREME MID LEVEL F-GEN SUGGESTS THAT...WHEN THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OCCURS...IT COULD BE VERY HEAVY...EVEN IF FOR ONLY A COUPLE OF HOURS. CAN NOT RULE OUT SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-3 INCHES/HOUR...OR EVEN HIGHER...WITHIN THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO AFTER CHANGEOVER. NOW...SHOULD THE PRECIP LINGER ONLY AN HOUR OR MORE THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...HIGHER TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD EASILY BE REACHED...PERHAPS ALMOST DOUBLE WHAT IS CURRENTLY INDICATED. WILL ASSESS THIS VERY CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS...PENDING OUTPUT FROM THE GFS AND ALSO TRENDS FROM THE HRRR/RUC 13...AND ENHANCED SHORT TERM WRF. SHOULD HIGHER AMTS SEEM LIKELY...UPGRADES TO WIDESPREAD ADVISORIES...AND WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED. How do you spell BOOOOOYAAAAAAA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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