snowgeek Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 12Z Nam says game on for ENY. Euro looks good. Let's see if the GFS joins in. Fast moving intense shortwave riding the rail between PV in Canada and the SE ridge. We got a storm to track!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 GFS is west and warmer.....rain to snow. Looks like a narrow band of opportunity. Too far west = less precip. Too far east = more precip wasted as rain. I'm betting Logan11 does well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 GFS is west and warmer.....rain to snow. Looks like a narrow band of opportunity. Too far west = less precip. Too far east = more precip wasted as rain. I'm betting Logan11 does well! It's really a fine line here. In order to get this thing farther west it needs to be more amped and things just can't get cold enough to support a decent event. Seems for the capital region, its either gonna be a cold rain to slushy snow situation...or a near whiff to the south. We'll see what the Euro has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 What's your take on the NAM vs. GFS? NAM gives us a few more hours of snow. I haven't looked to closely to see how it's been doing with boundary layer temps upstream. It's really a fine line here. In order to get this thing farther west it needs to be more amped and things just can't get cold enough to support a decent event. Seems for the capital region, its either gonna be a cold rain to slushy snow situation...or a near whiff to the south. We'll see what the Euro has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 12Z NAM has some nice banding potential after midnight Wed night. I'm gonna be sleepy at work Thursday (hopefully)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 12Z GFS ensembles!!!! What a turn around on the GOOFUS. Some of that precip is rain. Looks like we are dealing with a deepening low now.....not a dying low. Warm westward trend can stop now please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 It's really a fine line here. In order to get this thing farther west it needs to be more amped and things just can't get cold enough to support a decent event. Seems for the capital region, its either gonna be a cold rain to slushy snow situation...or a near whiff to the south. We'll see what the Euro has to say. I'll take my chances with a further west solution. With the precipitation rates expected, we should see the profile go isothermal in the low levels pretty quickly in the absence of WAA in the low levels. Another plus is the time of day when this precipitation will be occurring which is early in the morning. I just don't see why we won't be cold enough to support snow if we have enough moisture at this point in KALB. I think you have a much more valid point if we end up with lighter precipitation, in which the boundary layer might be an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 GEFS members are kind to cny http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=146670 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Wow to the latest ECWMF... Heavy Wet Snow for KALB if that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 What's your take on the NAM vs. GFS? NAM gives us a few more hours of snow. I haven't looked to closely to see how it's been doing with boundary layer temps upstream. IIRC...NAM did a better job handling BL temps for the Halloween storm. At this point, I would probably lean towards the NAM temp profiles and whatnaught...we're under 48 hrs and it obviously has better resolution to handle that sort of stuff. I'll take my chances with a further west solution. With the precipitation rates expected, we should see the profile go isothermal in the low levels pretty quickly in the absence of WAA in the low levels. Another plus is the time of day when this precipitation will be occurring which is early in the morning. I just don't see why we won't be cold enough to support snow if we have enough moisture at this point in KALB. I think you have a much more valid point if we end up with lighter precipitation, in which the boundary layer might be an issue. I guess I don't disagree...but you seem under the assumption cold air in firmly entrenched when precip arrives. Not sure if that will be the case. I haven't had time to look at profiles...but assuming we're no better than borderline when things get started, it will take some time to transition. I'm worried about two things, one...precip outracing the cold air (this is a quick mover afterall), and two, a rather narrow focus for the heaviest precip rates...meaning you really need to be under the best dynamics and whatnaught to hit pay dirt. Haven't seen the Euro yet...gonna take a look now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I'll take my chances with a further west solution. With the precipitation rates expected, we should see the profile go isothermal in the low levels pretty quickly in the absence of WAA in the low levels. Another plus is the time of day when this precipitation will be occurring which is early in the morning. I just don't see why we won't be cold enough to support snow if we have enough moisture at this point in KALB. I think you have a much more valid point if we end up with lighter precipitation, in which the boundary layer might be an issue. It's certainly an interesting setup. In the absence of high pressure and/or a cold airmass to the north it's often hard to get snow in the valleys, but the dynamics should compensate. It's interesting how weak and spread out the shortwave was initially projected to be, yet adjusted stronger and stronger as the event grew closer. 12Z ECMWF brings heaviest precip further north than 00Z run, should help to cool the boundary layer more rapidly. Could push 6"+ into the Helderbergs and certainly the Berkshires, and I would be surprised not to see at least several inches at Albany into the valley locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Wow to the latest ECWMF... Heavy Wet Snow for KALB if that verifies. Now that I kind of like. Still pessimistic about BL temps...but even with that pessimism, Euro could still probably be a nice 3-5" event for the valley...maybe 5-8" for higher elevations. And rather consistent with the 0z run...so that's nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I guess I don't disagree...but you seem under the assumption cold air in firmly entrenched when precip arrives. Not sure if that will be the case. I haven't had time to look at profiles...but assuming we're no better than borderline when things get started, it will take some time to transition. I'm worried about two things, one...precip outracing the cold air (this is a quick mover afterall), and two, a rather narrow focus for the heaviest precip rates...meaning you really need to be under the best dynamics and whatnaught to hit pay dirt. Haven't seen the Euro yet...gonna take a look now. I could obviously be wrong with the final solution, but the ECMWF has consistently shown (even in the latest 12z run which is the furthest NW) that the 850mb low will pass by to our east at KALB. At the surface, there is well established northerly flow, so the biggest threat will be the warm nose aloft, which will depend on the position of the closed 850mb low. I'd say given the dynamic nature of this system, we should have no problem maintaining an isothermal profile below freezing if the 850mb low continues to be forecast east of our location. It would require quite a shift to the west for this to change significantly (of course this latest run is the 3rd big shift NW in a row). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I don't anticipate anything but snow here after 0Z tomorrow evening..... Now that I kind of like. Still pessimistic about BL temps...but even with that pessimism, Euro could still probably be a nice 3-5" event for the valley...maybe 5-8" for higher elevations. And rather consistent with the 0z run...so that's nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Could push 6"+ into the Helderbergs and certainly the Berkshires, and I would be surprised not to see at least several inches at Albany into the valley locations. Still pessimistic about BL temps...but even with that pessimism, Euro could still probably be a nice 3-5" event for the valley...maybe 5-8" for higher elevations. Haha, seem to be thinking pretty much on the same page! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Sometimes ALB pulls off fantastic heavy wet snow events in the valley ...in the old days anyway. I think it was December ....maybe 83 or 84 that they got 15" at 33F the whole time. I got slop all night 30+ miles to the south where I lived at the time. I know of late the HV in ALB has been like the coastal plain it seems ...such as the huge fail in the late Feb. 2010 event. I could obviously be wrong with the final solution, but the ECMWF has consistently shown (even in the latest 12z run which is the furthest NW) that the 850mb low will pass by to our east at KALB. At the surface, there is well established northerly flow, so the biggest threat will be the warm nose aloft, which will depend on the position of the closed 850mb low. I'd say given the dynamic nature of this system, we should have no problem maintaining an isothermal profile below freezing if the 850mb low continues to be forecast east of our location. It would require quite a shift to the west for this to change significantly (of course this latest run is the 3rd big shift NW in a row). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 I was thinking that you'll change over by 1Z and 3Z here in the valley. Cooler 850 temps still have to advect east, even with the 850 low passing to our east. With a warm ground and being in the valley, I'm going for 2-5" down here and 4-8" up your way. Looking forward to tracking this one. Good luck! I don't anticipate anything but snow here after 0Z tomorrow evening..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 Wow! From the maps I saw, it looks like about 1.3" QPF for Albany from 0Z-12Z! Is that what it looks like to you? Even if we get .25"-.33" of rain that's still a nice thump of snow! Wow to the latest ECWMF... Heavy Wet Snow for KALB if that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 According to Tip over on the NE storm thread, this thing is actually phasing with the PV more now. EC has it down to 970 MB now just east of New Brunswick at 60 hours. We couldn't pull it off in ENY with just the flatter wave so we needed that, but it does inject some threat of further westward correction even. I think we are pretty close to a final solution though. Wow! From the maps I saw, it looks like about 1.3" QPF for Albany from 0Z-12Z! Is that what it looks like to you? Even if we get .25"-.33" of rain that's still a nice thump of snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 18z NAM is a pretty big jump north. Very juicy. Looks like 1.5" of QPF through 39 hrs all the way up to Albany. Some of that is the rain prior to the main low, but still. It's likely overdone a bit...but still a good jump north from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Finally I don't hear crickets anymore. I saw this as the likely solution yesterday but figured if I was alone, might as well not look stupid if I busted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 Wow, just saw it.....juicy and not too warm. Hopefully this isn't one of those events that keeps trending NW until the storm arrives. Intense precip rates on 18Z NAM should easily overcome a marginal profile. I still can't believe we have a storm to track! This ones gonna keep the pro Mets on their toes. 18z NAM is a pretty big jump north. Very juicy. Looks like 1.5" of QPF through 39 hrs all the way up to Albany. Some of that is the rain prior to the main low, but still. It's likely overdone a bit...but still a good jump north from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Go west young storm, looking better for the GFL / LG area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Wow, just saw it.....juicy and not too warm. Hopefully this isn't one of those events that keeps trending NW until the storm arrives. Intense precip rates on 18Z NAM should easily overcome a marginal profile. I still can't believe we have a storm to track! This ones gonna keep the pro Mets on their toes. This one will be down to the wire I think. I'm just hoping the Halloween storm didn't begin the seasonal trend. Models initially were well south of the area for that one...then corrected too far north at one point giving Albany 6-12" of snow just 36-48 hours before the event only to back down a bit an correct a bit south at the last minute leaving Albany on the fringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 The NW models seem to also be stronger with the low which leeds to temps crashing more. As long as the low doesn't end up over NYC then I think the Hudson Valley/CD should be OK once the heavy precip sets in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 HPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 HPC Very far West with that 10% line, even with the westward shift of the NAM. I don't think the SREF supports a solution that far west either, and the HPC usually favors that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 This one will be down to the wire I think. I'm just hoping the Halloween storm didn't begin the seasonal trend. Models initially were well south of the area for that one...then corrected too far north at one point giving Albany 6-12" of snow just 36-48 hours before the event only to back down a bit an correct a bit south at the last minute leaving Albany on the fringe. The big difference this go around is that the ECMWF is leading the pack. Both the GFS and NAM trended farther north in the 24-12 hours prior to the late October Storm when the ECWMF held back south of ALB. It will be interesting to see if the NW trend is finished or if we see further adjustments in the next 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 The big difference this go around is that the ECMWF is leading the pack. Both the GFS and NAM trended farther north in the 24-12 hours prior to the late October Storm when the ECWMF held back south of ALB. It will be interesting to see if the NW trend is finished or if we see further adjustments in the next 36 hours. It might even be an overcorrection, in which case the low pressure will head further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 UKMET looks good for Upstate New York, but is too warm for rain at the start in most areas due to warm 2m temps. It calls for Ithaca to be at about 40 degrees when the precip starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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