bluewave Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 6z NAM and GFS bufkit, showing the potential max wind gusts 40- 45mph early tomorrow morning at LGA. We'll see if the low can bomb out faster than forecast. Maybe some spots especially as you go out across Long Island can pick up higher gusts. The vort is really intense with a coupled upper jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 We're (NYC and east) probably going to be slotted for much of the storm as the banding and SN/RA get going to the west. I wonder is a rumble or two of thunder is possible with the low as it moves past? Definitely looks like a lot of lift and instability with the vort. And wind as the CAA mixes down post-fropa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 We're (NYC and east) probably going to be slotted for much of the storm as the banding and SN/RA get going to the west. I wonder is a rumble or two of thunder is possible with the low as it moves past? Definitely looks like a lot of lift and instability with the vort. And wind as the CAA mixes down post-fropa. Looking forward to it...also on 880 craig allen was a little bullish with his snowfall, said up to 6 for NW jersey and coating to an inch suburbs nearby city, but nothing sticking in city...while noaa has lows around 39 and rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 We're (NYC and east) probably going to be slotted for much of the storm as the banding and SN/RA get going to the west. I wonder is a rumble or two of thunder is possible with the low as it moves past? Definitely looks like a lot of lift and instability with the vort. And wind as the CAA mixes down post-fropa. NAM pushes the dryslot right up to LI and NYC at 8pm tonight and keeps NYC and LI out of the heaviest rains. Very similar to the October storm, in regards to the dry push in the 700 level. Total QPF for LI is only .25"-.50" and for NYC only .50" from 8pm tonight until end of storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Not looking too good in terms of temp.. if you believe the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Not looking too good in terms of temp.. if you believe the NAM Lack of precip and a push of dry air right before that. Look at hour 15 sim radar. Barely any precip over NYC, LI or HPN: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Not looking too good in terms of temp.. if you believe the NAM wind will be the best part of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Damn.... @ hr18 we are getting smoked up this way... Gonna be fun watching this unfold tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 wind will be the best part of this storm. Not even. Wind maps barely show a weak gust into NYC or CT. Only eastern LI has some wind as the storm departs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Lack of precip and a push of dry air right before that. Look at hour 15 sim radar. Barely any precip over NYC, LI or HPN: True... even quite a bit further north and west at KMSV.. temps are a struggle too and it would appear by the SIM you showed that there would be some heavier QPF amounts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Gonna be fun watching this unfold tonight yes it will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Looking forward to it...also on 880 craig allen was a little bullish with his snowfall, said up to 6 for NW jersey and coating to an inch suburbs nearby city, but nothing sticking in city...while noaa has lows around 39 and rain... NAM soundings show NYC at 34 degrees, tomorrow morning at 7am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Not even. Wind maps barely show a weak gust into NYC or CT. Only eastern LI has some wind as the storm departs. Maybe there could be a "squall line" and some heavy rain/thunder as the low passes by. I agree, given the low track and heavy precip west of the track, we're going to be in the dryslot for most of it. Maybe a very quick 0.5" of rain or so with the passage of the front east of the city, and whatever wind comes after. The action for this will very much be well west of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Damn.... @ hr18 we are getting smoked up this way... Gonna be fun watching this unfold tonight Soundings indicate you are .1 and .5 at 850 and 800 and above freezing from 950 and below. Maybe you can overcome that, but I wouldn't call it getting smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Damn.... @ hr18 we are getting smoked up this way... Gonna be fun watching this unfold tonight and looking at it closer, you don't have much time after that to accumulate. I was thinking 6+ for you yesterday, but 1-3, maybe a lucky 4 for you, but that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 and looking at it closer, you don't have much time after that to accumulate. I was thinking 6+ for you yesterday, but 1-3, maybe a lucky 4 for you, but that's it. ok.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Damn.... @ hr18 we are getting smoked up this way... Gonna be fun watching this unfold tonight Looking at soundings for your area: -Through hour 15 you are all rain. At hour 15, you are 39 degrees with 850's at +1.9. With 1.38" of rain fallen already. -By Hour 18, surface is down to 33 degrees and 850's are -1.7. So according to the NAM you flip to snow around hour 17 or 18. Problem is that there isnt much precip left after this. Only .26"-.30" 1"-3" likely for you according to the NAM. http://68.226.77.253...NAM212_KMGJ.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 ok.. that's a big win in this pattern. Better make a few snowballs and put them in the freezer so you don't forget what snow looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 and looking at it closer, you don't have much time after that to accumulate. I was thinking 6+ for you yesterday, but 1-3, maybe a lucky 4 for you, but that's it. Somewhere between hr15-hr18 we flip to heavy snow here.. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM212/NAM212_Kmgj.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 ok.. Woops, I was using Stewart for you, didn't realize Montgomery airport had soudings. They look better for you, but still sticking with the 1-3, jackpot of 4. Problem further west, as pointed out by the other poster, is there is less precip than there would be east of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 that's a big win in this pattern. Better make a few snowballs and put them in the freezer so you don't forget what snow looks like. Bottomline is anyone with some good longitude up this way and above 500' should get 4"+.. Pretty much as I expected.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 This is why I love living west of I-287, we get in on all the extra snowfall that the city misses out on. I seem to be in almost the perfect location the last few years, just far enough west to get mostly snow yet close enough to the coast to not miss out on the big noreasters. Anybody from Butler north up through Ringwood, Vernon, West Milford and into Orange County should easily see 4"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Bottomline is anyone with some good longitude up this way and above 500' should get 4"+.. Pretty much as I expected.. Not seeing it, but I hope you do get 4+, i never root against fellow nyc metro people to get snow, except for mount earthlight, he has had enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Woops, I was using Stewart for you, didn't realize Montgomery airport had soudings. They look better for you, but still sticking with the 1-3, jackpot of 4. Problem further west, as pointed out by the other poster, is there is less precip than there would be east of you. And im still a good amount west of MGJ.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 good grief to that post. yeah even though these types of events are minor for most people in this sub-forum there are a lucky few that could really cash in on a scenario like this. Some place like West Milford or Vernon could get close to Warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 GFS looks interesting . Maybe ending as a few hours ofsnow for Philly and NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Hr 15 on the 12z GFS the low center is right off the NJ coast, just east of ACY and then it's over the eastern tip of LI three hours later with still some decent QPF over the region. I can't tell when exactly the surface temps bomb out but the 850 temps look to drop fast enough to allow for at least 3-4hrs of moderate snow west of the city. The GFS also gives us between 2 and 3" of total QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 GFS looks interesting . Maybe ending as a few hours ofsnow for Philly and NYC? no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 850's are below zero at hour 21. 925mb temps fall below zero between 18-21 hrs. RH is ~70% for both 700mb and 850mb, but 500 dries out. Most likely either a mix of light rain/snow or some light snow at the end if cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 It has less than .1 falling after 06z tonight when temps are still in the upper 30s/low 40s....by the time any decent cold air works in the precip has ended. Not saying it can't snow for a bit on the backside but it certainly won't stick to anything. GFS looks interesting . Maybe ending as a few hours ofsnow for Philly and NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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