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12/7-12/8 Potential Event Discussion Part II


earthlight

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your looking good out there snywx.

Im actually tracking from Danbury to Scranton tomorrow night and then turning right back around to Danbury. 84 will be interesting.

Nice.. When your on 84 by exit 2 ( near the PA border) give a shout out!! I live 5 mins from that exit..

BTW: 84 is pretty nasty out here in winter weather. Elevation changes drastically once you past Middletown so keep that in mind..

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Really just some slight adjustments to the map I put out around 12am. Snywx I still have you in the 2-5" area but I do think that if the cooler thermal solutions verify, somebody on a hilltop could come in towards the higher end of that range..maybe an inch or two over it. Slushy inch generally outside of the metro (no accumulation in the city or at ewr/immediate northeast nj).

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Nice.. When your on 84 by exit 2 ( near the PA border) give a shout out!! I live 5 mins from that exit..

BTW: 84 is pretty nasty out here in winter weather. Elevation changes drastically once you past Middletown so keep that in mind..

I'm off on Thursday, so maybe it's worth taking a drive up there Wednesday night to check out the terrain and the snow. This system looks pretty dynamic so it may be fun.

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46.9 in Putnam. I think it has more to do with fog and cold air at the bottom of the valley than latitude or cold air drainage. Maybe a little of both. Still much colder than the NAM progged this hour.

The RUC, although well out of it's more accurate range, is several degrees cooler in some locations than the NAM at 12 hr. Probably not worth much, but something to watch I guess.

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46.9 in Putnam. I think it has more to do with fog and cold air at the bottom of the valley than latitude or cold air drainage. Maybe a little of both. Still much colder than the NAM progged this hour.

Actually maybe it is a thermal boundary. Just checked 2am obs from Newburgh, Montgomery, and Poughkeepsie: 45, 45, 46. White Plains is at 59, Caldwell at 60, and Danbury at 59. I'm usually warmer than Danbury and within a few degrees of White Plains and Caldwell. Very sharp gradient.

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Actually maybe it is a thermal boundary. Just checked 2am obs from Newburgh, Montgomery, and Poughkeepsie: 45, 45, 46. White Plains is at 59, Caldwell at 60, and Danbury at 59. I'm usually warmer than Danbury and within a few degrees of White Plains and Caldwell. Very sharp gradient.

It is...look at the 10m wind forecast from the 00z NAM. It underforecast the boundary a bit (cooler on nw side of it than forecast)...but had the positioning forecast rather well.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ETAPA_0z/f09.gif

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The RUC, although well out of it's more accurate range, is several degrees cooler in some locations than the NAM at 12 hr. Probably not worth much, but something to watch I guess.

Agree on both points. It would be great if cold air was draining further south than expected, but why is Sussex and Aeroflex in the mid-50s? I think it has to do with the valley. Fog and dense air.

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It is...look at the 10m wind forecast from the 00z NAM. It underforecast the boundary a bit (cooler on nw side of it than forecast)...but had the positioning forecast rather well.

http://www.meteo.psu...TAPA_0z/f09.gif

Yeah I'm looking at it. Shows up nicely with the converging flow contours. Certainly a positive thought to fall asleep to. But the dews are still pretty high in upstate NY. And why is NNJ still in the mid-50s?

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Yeah I'm looking at it. Shows up nicely with the converging flow contours. Certainly a positive thought to fall asleep to. But the dews are still pretty high in upstate NY. And why is NNJ still in the mid-50s?

Definitely the valleys like you said earlier. Morristown Municipal is still at 59 degrees. Yikes.

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