RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 your looking good out there snywx. Im actually tracking from Danbury to Scranton tomorrow night and then turning right back around to Danbury. 84 will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 your looking good out there snywx. Im actually tracking from Danbury to Scranton tomorrow night and then turning right back around to Danbury. 84 will be interesting. Nice.. When your on 84 by exit 2 ( near the PA border) give a shout out!! I live 5 mins from that exit.. BTW: 84 is pretty nasty out here in winter weather. Elevation changes drastically once you past Middletown so keep that in mind.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Nice.. When your on 84 by exit 2 ( near the PA border) give a shout out!! I live 5 mins from that exit.. BTW: 84 is pretty nasty out here in winter weather. Elevation changes drastically once you past Middletown so keep that in mind.. Mountain RD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Mountain RD? Yeah.. Familiar with the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Temp dropping nicely up this way.. down 6* in the last 90 mins.. Currently 49.8* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Yeah.. Familiar with the area? Yes, I frequently go to a friends house on I believe Schoolhouse road? I'll be there in a few weeks actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 61.8 at almost 2 am, on december 7th, crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 61.8 at almost 2 am, on december 7th, crazy I was there too, now down to 57.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Yes, I frequently go to a friends house on I believe Schoolhouse road? I'll be there in a few weeks actually. Not far from me at all.. Im about 2 miles to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 7, 2011 Author Share Posted December 7, 2011 Really just some slight adjustments to the map I put out around 12am. Snywx I still have you in the 2-5" area but I do think that if the cooler thermal solutions verify, somebody on a hilltop could come in towards the higher end of that range..maybe an inch or two over it. Slushy inch generally outside of the metro (no accumulation in the city or at ewr/immediate northeast nj). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Not far from me at all.. Im about 2 miles to the east. Hm, maybe I'll bump into you at the Schoolhouse Deli. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 7, 2011 Author Share Posted December 7, 2011 Nice.. When your on 84 by exit 2 ( near the PA border) give a shout out!! I live 5 mins from that exit.. BTW: 84 is pretty nasty out here in winter weather. Elevation changes drastically once you past Middletown so keep that in mind.. I'm off on Thursday, so maybe it's worth taking a drive up there Wednesday night to check out the terrain and the snow. This system looks pretty dynamic so it may be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 46.9 in Putnam. I think it has more to do with fog and cold air at the bottom of the valley than latitude or cold air drainage. Maybe a little of both. Still much colder than the NAM progged this hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I'm off on Thursday, so maybe it's worth taking a drive up there Wednesday night to check out the terrain and the snow. This system looks pretty dynamic so it may be fun. We should rent a party bus to the top of Wurtsboro hill on 17, they will certainly cash in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 7, 2011 Author Share Posted December 7, 2011 46.9 in Putnam. I think it has more to do with fog and cold air at the bottom of the valley than latitude or cold air drainage. Maybe a little of both. Still much colder than the NAM progged this hour. The RUC, although well out of it's more accurate range, is several degrees cooler in some locations than the NAM at 12 hr. Probably not worth much, but something to watch I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 46.9 in Putnam. I think it has more to do with fog and cold air at the bottom of the valley than latitude or cold air drainage. Maybe a little of both. Still much colder than the NAM progged this hour. Actually maybe it is a thermal boundary. Just checked 2am obs from Newburgh, Montgomery, and Poughkeepsie: 45, 45, 46. White Plains is at 59, Caldwell at 60, and Danbury at 59. I'm usually warmer than Danbury and within a few degrees of White Plains and Caldwell. Very sharp gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Hm, maybe I'll bump into you at the Schoolhouse Deli. lol lol.. Thats more Greenville/Port jervis. Middletown is quite large and im at the most western extent of it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 7, 2011 Author Share Posted December 7, 2011 Actually maybe it is a thermal boundary. Just checked 2am obs from Newburgh, Montgomery, and Poughkeepsie: 45, 45, 46. White Plains is at 59, Caldwell at 60, and Danbury at 59. I'm usually warmer than Danbury and within a few degrees of White Plains and Caldwell. Very sharp gradient. It is...look at the 10m wind forecast from the 00z NAM. It underforecast the boundary a bit (cooler on nw side of it than forecast)...but had the positioning forecast rather well. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ETAPA_0z/f09.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 We should rent a party bus to the top of Wurtsboro hill on 17, they will certainly cash in! Yeah pretty much anyone along the Ridge is gonna get smoked.. Cragsmoor (2100') which I believe is the highest town on the Shawangunk Ridge should rack up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 The RUC, although well out of it's more accurate range, is several degrees cooler in some locations than the NAM at 12 hr. Probably not worth much, but something to watch I guess. Agree on both points. It would be great if cold air was draining further south than expected, but why is Sussex and Aeroflex in the mid-50s? I think it has to do with the valley. Fog and dense air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Temp down another 3*.. Down to 46.6* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 It is...look at the 10m wind forecast from the 00z NAM. It underforecast the boundary a bit (cooler on nw side of it than forecast)...but had the positioning forecast rather well. http://www.meteo.psu...TAPA_0z/f09.gif Yeah I'm looking at it. Shows up nicely with the converging flow contours. Certainly a positive thought to fall asleep to. But the dews are still pretty high in upstate NY. And why is NNJ still in the mid-50s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/gmap.php?zoom=8&extents=41.347948,-76.047363,43.77506,-71.488037&density=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 7, 2011 Author Share Posted December 7, 2011 Yeah I'm looking at it. Shows up nicely with the converging flow contours. Certainly a positive thought to fall asleep to. But the dews are still pretty high in upstate NY. And why is NNJ still in the mid-50s? Definitely the valleys like you said earlier. Morristown Municipal is still at 59 degrees. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jets Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getanalysis.cgi?region=NJ&time=current&field=stream Looks like that front is just about to move over Morristown, NJ now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 It's silly warm out still, 60 F here at 2:40 am! If we get some heavy wet snow falling tomorrow night that would be impressive by itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 still at 61 at 3am, priceless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 6z gfs puts more interior places in question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Looks close to wind advisory criteria in the rapid pressure rises after 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Looks close to wind advisory criteria in the rapid pressure rises after 6z. 6z NAM and GFS bufkit, showing the potential max wind gusts 40- 45mph early tomorrow morning at LGA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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