forkyfork Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 nam bufkit gives kewr 2-3 hours of heavy snow starting at 1 am late tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 This run may be better for Northern New Jersey and Southeast New York..just glancing at the 30 hour panel compared to the 36 hour panel on the 18z run. It's shifted the 850mb low and 0c line east by 25 or more miles. The deformation band is also farther east. Looking back..this trend has been ongoing for the last three to four model cycles on the NAM. Notice how the deformation band is now actually located over Northeast New Jersey at 30 hours. The mid-levels have been improving - and thus a tighter wrapped surface low. That should pull deform bands in tighter to the low center. And if the banding is an intense as that chart indicates, some places within the heaviest reflectivity could flip to snow even with 850mb through surface above freezing by as much as 1.5C. I've seen rain columns go isothermal in intense bandings. But that's grasping at straws I think. What killed us was the "cold front" never sagging south on Wednesday as originally modeled. That leaves the lowest levels so warm I don't think we'll ever recover. A narrow warm layer between 800mb and 900mb can be mixed out dynamically. The very highest elevations - say over 2000ft - could really cash in as the vertical profile and adjusted (for elevation) thicknesses are much more favorable. Side note - I think some of the shift between 0z and 18z on the NAM is once again due to a slightly faster speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Great pic! Interesting how there is that eastern snow wedge into Monmouth. Slight elevation perhaps and inland off the bay? There is also a bright snow lolly if you zoom in that appears right over my town. I did measure 3" for that. Hope it's not our biggest snow fall this season. Great sat pic. Amazing how MBY in Monmouth is just barely inside that eastern boundary. Sharp cut off. Also interesting to note how northern Holmdel received less than Colts Neck, due to warm influence from the bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 The mid-levels have been improving - and thus a tighter wrapped surface low. That should pull deform bands in tighter to the low center. And if the banding is an intense as that chart indicates, some places within the heaviest reflectivity could flip to snow even with 850mb through surface above freezing by as much as 1.5C. I've seen rain columns go isothermal in intense bandings. But that's grasping at straws I think. What killed us was the "cold front" never sagging south on Wednesday as originally modeled. That leaves the lowest levels so warm I don't think we'll ever recover. A narrow warm layer between 800mb and 900mb can be mixed out dynamically. The very highest elevations - say over 2000ft - could really cash in as the vertical profile and adjusted (for elevation) thicknesses are much more favorable. Side note - I think some of the shift between 0z and 18z on the NAM is once again due to a slightly faster speed. Looks like from extreme NW NJ into Western Orange County are in for a nice solid 5"+ event as per 0z NAM.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Looks like from extreme NW NJ into Western Orange County are in for a nice solid 5"+ event as per 0z NAM.. Yeah, I'd say it's really borderline right now along that geographical line considering the 0z NAM, RGEM and the 18z GFS. I really like the current modeled location of the most consistently intense precipitation. That's the wild card and it has to happen in the absence of significant CAA. I could see a 3-4 hour period of 2" per hour or a slushy 1-2" on the hilltops. My money's on 1-2" until something turns in favor. My target zone is Mt. Pocono to Monticello to Slide Mt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Out to hour 24 on the GFS, it looks like the preceding wave is more amplified which could slow the main event slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 00 UTC December 6th RGEM Total Snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 850s east on the GFS as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 850s east on the GFS as well. It seems to me that they're slightly further west, which wouldn't be surprising as the low pressure is further west as well moving over eastern Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 It seems to me that they're slightly further west, which wouldn't be surprising as the low pressure is further west as well moving over eastern Long Island. On the raleigh maps they're east at 30 compared to their location at 36hr on the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 On the raleigh maps they're east at 30 compared to their location at 36hr on the 18z run. That's only true for a small bump in the 0c line that the 18z GFS had in western NJ. Otherwise, the system is more amplified, with the 850mb temps and surface low more west. You can clearly see the differences in Long Island as the 850mb temps are warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 GFS doesn't help things at all from what I can see. Not a lot of snow anywhere and no discernible positive trend for snow lovers. It's disappointing because the model is really developing it into a strong gale now. And there aren't any obvious threats out in the mid-range. Still a low but existing probability of a parachute bomb scenario in the far NW suburbs (definitely warrants watching) and a coating to a few inches is likely from S to N and W from NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 That's only true for a small bump in the 0c line that the 18z GFS had in western NJ. Otherwise, the system is more amplified, with the 850mb temps and surface low more west. You can clearly see the differences in Long Island as the 850mb temps are warmer. Yeah, it definitely looks warmer and further west. It also looks to be moving a little faster than 18z. So it makes sense for 850mb 0C line to be a little farther east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I think in general the NW trend has plateaued, with minor wobbles left and right with heights and temps and SLP placement the past couple cycles. With a good 24 hours before the storm commits to a track up the coast, I'd like to see it trend a couple hours slower on its NE haul... otherwise I don't think even I can expect anything significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Joe B on GFS moments ago: Model has major weakness in its physics and it cant handle energy between two streams. Been going on for years!!!!! Likes the Nam as its in line to his ideas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Joe B on GFS moments ago: Likes the Nam as its in line to his ideas. There aren't really enough 's for when a professional meteorologist just spouts off stuff like this. What evidence is there that the GFS is completely mishandling the storm? Is every model mishandling it? It is easy to make a claim like that but if it were just so obvious, I'm sure the modelers at NCEP would fix it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 7, 2011 Author Share Posted December 7, 2011 NAM bufkit really rips here for about 2 hours tomorrow night..I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 NAM bufkit really rips here for about 2 hours tomorrow night..I'll take it. Be sure to start an obs thread and report with data and pictures! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I think in general the NW trend has plateaued, with minor wobbles left and right with heights and temps and SLP placement the past couple cycles. With a good 24 hours before the storm commits to a track up the coast, I'd like to see it trend a couple hours slower on its NE haul... otherwise I don't think even I can expect anything significant. The problem is precipitation is already streaming into the Ohio Valley and the thermal boundary is way to the west of our area. That boundary was modeled to sag far southwest as of a few days ago, allowing the wave behind it to send some moisture up over the fresh cold air. That didn't happen and now a stronger low center is forming along the baroclinic boundary that is too far west for most of us. It could still wrap up really tightly, jog east, and send heights and temps crashing at the last moment... but we probably won't know that until it happens. The antecedent warmth is locked in, making a major track change very unlikely and rain the dominant ptype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 There aren't really enough 's for when a professional meteorologist just spouts off stuff like this. What evidence is there that the GFS is completely mishandling the storm? Is every model mishandling it? It is easy to make a claim like that but if it were just so obvious, I'm sure the modelers at NCEP would fix it... You would have to go on his twitter page. He explains it more and provides some maps. Hes been saying this for a long time now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 more JB garbage filling up the thread...good job guys. I will gladly take this given the circumstances: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 7, 2011 Author Share Posted December 7, 2011 Be sure to start an obs thread and report with data and pictures! Yeah, it's def. worth starting an OBS thread probably tomorrow afternoon. At the very least it will be cool to see a dynamic system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 soundings improved since last night. looking better up here, nice little add to the season total. http://68.226.77.253...FC/NAM_Kdxr.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I know the text soundings are goofy but it still shows NYC getting a little accumulation. Hopefully it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 The GFS BUFKIT still gives up to an inch down into north-central NJ. Doubtful, IMO, but who knows. Max would be 2 hours of snow in the area, and that is generous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Just thought i would pass this on from David Cox in reference to down south in reference to soundings : We have an unfavorable sounding in Shreveport and its snowing there lol..Not much moisture in the snow growth region of -12 to -18 degrees Celsius so normally w/ sfc temps low u would think freezing drizzle as no ice crystals would form but an atypical snow was falling in Shreveport and Ruston, LA. We may have some shot in Jackson, MS area and here in Starkville, look to saturate up in the snow growth region and get a little snow here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 7, 2011 Author Share Posted December 7, 2011 Just thought i would pass this on from David Cox in reference to down south in reference to soundings : Just saw that actually and responded (assuming its from that Facebook page). Some of the soundings even here have poor snow growth & poor saturation. Could be crappy flake production w/ 700 low closed off to the N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 good to know where the front is...cuz its sticky and baking up here at 58F. It also means we would need a 20 to 25 degree departure this time tomorrow night before the dynamic cooling from the system takes place. in other words, there is a long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 7, 2011 Author Share Posted December 7, 2011 Euro looks like it might be a tick colder and/or quicker than 12z with bringing the cold air in. Might also be a faster forward speed. Very close for Western NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Should be an interesting drive home from work tomorrow night around midnight.. Still havent given up hope for my area. GFS/NAM isnt all that bad for these parts.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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