ag3 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Minimal differences to 18z nam through hour 27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Hour 30 has the 850 line a little colder and more east then 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Hour 30 has the 850 line a little colder and more east then 18z. Yea, probably because its slightler stronger, dynamic cooling is increased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Still makes no difference for NYC though. By hour 33, Precip is ending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Oh well. NEXT! (is there a next?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 7, 2011 Author Share Posted December 7, 2011 This run may be better for Northern New Jersey and Southeast New York..just glancing at the 30 hour panel compared to the 36 hour panel on the 18z run. It's shifted the 850mb low and 0c line east by 25 or more miles. The deformation band is also farther east. Looking back..this trend has been ongoing for the last three to four model cycles on the NAM. Notice how the deformation band is now actually located over Northeast New Jersey at 30 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 At least its going to rain in SNE too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 7, 2011 Author Share Posted December 7, 2011 To illustrate...here are the 850mb temperatures at 35 hours on the 18z run and 29 hours on the 00z run. You can see the NAM is now picking up on an area of dynamic cooling over heavy precipitation in Northeast New Jersey. 18z http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NAMSFC4_18z/t85w35.gif 00z http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NAMSFC4_0z/t85w29.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 To illustrate...here are the 850mb temperatures at 35 hours on the 18z run and 29 hours on the 00z run. You can see the NAM is now picking up on an area of dynamic cooling over heavy precipitation in Northeast New Jersey. 18z http://www.meteo.psu..._18z/t85w35.gif 00z http://www.meteo.psu...4_0z/t85w29.gif 700mb panel with the 284 line so far north and west says to me that's probably not enough, even though the 850's are cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 7, 2011 Author Share Posted December 7, 2011 700mb panel with the 284 line so far north and west says to me that's probably not enough, even though the 850's are cooling. It's something..small improvement that probably doesn't mean much in the end. But at this range, I guess it's worth looking at for any extra snow some people might be able to get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 To illustrate...here are the 850mb temperatures at 35 hours on the 18z run and 29 hours on the 00z run. You can see the NAM is now picking up on an area of dynamic cooling over heavy precipitation in Northeast New Jersey. 18z http://www.meteo.psu..._18z/t85w35.gif 00z http://www.meteo.psu...4_0z/t85w29.gif Another 25 MI E and Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 the vort max tracks just south of us... i don't see a dry slot being much of an issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Still makes no difference for NYC though. By hour 33, Precip is ending. The silver lining here is at least we have a classic nor'easter, albeit a rainstorm for NYC. Anyone up for a trip to the Poconos to see the snow up front and personal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 700mb panel with the 284 line so far north and west says to me that's probably not enough, even though the 850's are cooling. Agreed, the WAA seems to be too strong at all levels and without a cold antecedent airmass, its not even going to be close. Like I said when this was modeled to go OTS, a AO around +5 will only encourage this to come inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 7, 2011 Author Share Posted December 7, 2011 the vort max tracks just south of us... i don't see a dry slot being much of an issue Yeah I agree. The dry slot should impact Eastern Long Island though. It always does with this surface low track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 It's something..small improvement that probably doesn't mean much in the end. But at this range, I guess it's worth looking at for any extra snow some people might be able to get. Here is KMMU at 30 hours, look at the warm wedge around 800 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Nice maps NJWinter23 and eartlight... this is looking ugly, with no hope of falling under the deformation band I guess NYC's second best hope other than back end flakes is for dry slotting to keep us from getting those 2-3 inches of rain modeled... The model performance wasn't good concerning how they handled the H5 set up for this storm; just over the last 2 days, there were constant changes with the H5 set up until the very last minute; for Wednesday's set up, I couldn't find any 2 consecutive frames showing the same situation. Yesterday's 12z NAM and today's 18z NAM attached below clearly show these differences, and with the initialized set up for today different than what yesterday's runs showed, there's no hope of this going back to yesterday's 18z NAM. Hopefully the model performance for this storm isn't a preview of what's to come this winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 The silver lining here is at least we have a classic nor'easter, albeit a rainstorm for NYC. oh joy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 7, 2011 Author Share Posted December 7, 2011 Another illustration...definitely cooler but not quite there yet. Areas of NE NJ had their forecast 850mb temp drop from +6.0 to -0.5. Pretty radical change. 18z http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ETAPA_18z/f36.gif 00z http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ETAPA_0z/f30.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Even stewart airforce base in Orange County has the ugly 800 mb warm wedge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 KORH, worcester mass, even has issues, as it cools they dry up where the ice crystals form. if it's not one thing, its another. Go to Central VT for the jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Looks like your snowfall edge line is almost exactly where it was during the October event, yes? Great sat pic. Amazing how MBY in Monmouth is just barely inside that eastern boundary. Sharp cut off. Also interesting to note how northern Holmdel received less than Colts Neck, due to warm influence from the bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 The silver lining here is at least we have a classic nor'easter, albeit a rainstorm for NYC. Anyone up for a trip to the Poconos to see the snow up front and personal? Agree-I was worried about the dryness and general lack of storms in Nov...hopefully with an more active pattern we can get something to deliver for us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 KORH, worcester mass, even has issues, as it cools they dry up where the ice crystals form. if it's not one thing, its another. Go to Central VT for the jackpot. Lack of heavy deform band ruins ORH and SNE this run. 18z had a very strong band over that area. 0z took it away, thus no dynamics to cool them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 People think looking at thickness lines is outdated or inaccurate, but they are on the maps for a reason and if you see the 284 thickness line displaced significantly from the 850 0C line it means something is up, in this case, the 800mb warm wedge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 The 850mb 0C line might not be the rain to snow transition line, in this case. There is gap between the -1C and 0C line. It might be just when go over to a mix for couple hours: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I will be really happy if I see flakes. Nam looks cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 H85 temp gradient is insane. You go from +7 in Bridgeport to below 0 in SE NY....crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 The NAM BUFKIT is still printing out 2 inches for New Brunswick and has been for a while now. We will see... falls from 06Z-08Z Thursday. Deep layer omega from near the surface up through 400 hPa. Winds should be pretty gusty at the surface, too. 50 kts at the bottom of the inversion layer. Unfortunately, as has been said, it is only for about an hour or so as the mid-levels dry out in the snow growth region quite quickly by the time it becomes [marginally] cold enough to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Great sat pic. Amazing how MBY in Monmouth is just barely inside that eastern boundary. Sharp cut off. Also interesting to note how northern Holmdel received less than Colts Neck, due to warm influence from the bay Zoom in and take a look at my little patch of NE Queens. The sound ruined it for us I assume since the winds were blowing right off that still relatively warm water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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