ag3 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 did you need a model to tell you this? i guess so.... but learn your lesson for the next time we are in a hideous upper air pattern and the models spit out some snow. and this isnt about being positive or negative for an upcoming event. its taking off the snow goggles and being objective at what it takes to get snow in nyc. The thing is that if the storm took a more easterly track, like all models had yesterday, we would have all picked up some snow. All it took was 50-100 miles to put us on the rain side. A 50-100 mile shift, whether it be west or east has NOTHING to do with the pattern. The fact that we came this close to a snow event, is pretty amazing, given the current pattern. But this storm is all rain because of a small shift in position. If models stayed east over the BM without tucking into LI, we would've all seen a few hours of changeover snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 at least im hot.... are you sure you're not wearing goggles anymore?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 GFS appears to have gone colder at 18z than it was at 12z. The 0C 850s almost go into C NJ. This is due to the GFS ticking NE this run compared to 12z. 18z GFS @ 36h. 12z GFS @ 42h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 GFS appears to have gone colder at 18z than it was at 12z. The 0C 850s almost go into C NJ. This is due to the GFS ticking NE this run compared to 12z. 18z GFS @ 36h. 12z GFS @ 42h. Good eye dude. Looks like a good 5-7 mile shift east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 The thing is that if the storm took a more easterly track, like all models had yesterday, we would have all picked up some snow. All it took was 50-100 miles to put us on the rain side. A 50-100 mile shift, whether it be west or east has NOTHING to do with the pattern. The fact that we came this close to a snow event, is pretty amazing, given the current pattern. But this storm is all rain because of a small shift in position. If models stayed east over the BM without tucking into LI, we would've all seen a few hours of changeover snow. yes we would have. I agree. and this is my whole point really....that very small differences in a crappy pattern are magnified. I want snow, always. but I use the forum to learn from people that know a lot about this stuff....i guess others on here dont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Good eye dude. Looks like a good 5-7 mile shift east. Thanks! What I did to determine the placement of the low in relation to the low placement in the prior run was that I simply opened up two browser tabs and compared them. The 850s getting colder and the GFS ticking NE almost put my location in West North Central New Jersey back into the deformation band with heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Small improvements on 18z models. We have 4 more model cycles, 0z, 6z, 12z and 18z to get through before storm. We have all seen last minute jumps west or east in the past. Jan. 10, 2011 had a big east shift, 6 hours before storm. Not saying it will happen with this storm, but just pointing out that there are still 4 even 5, if you include 0z tomorrow night, model cycles to get through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 yes we would have. I agree. and this is my whole point really....that very small differences in a crappy pattern are magnified. I want snow, always. but I use the forum to learn from people that know a lot about this stuff....i guess others on here dont. I would argue that a low track on top of Cape May, NJ and then to eastern LI would put NYC/LI on the rain/snow line even on a good pattern on December 8th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I think the 18Z RGEM snow accumulation map is the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I think the 18Z RGEM snow accumulation map is the way to go. Tomorrow's 18z run maybe. Definetely not today's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Nice burst of wind right behind the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 The 850 0c line being farther east is a hallucination on the 18z NAM...in actuality it is warmer at the 850mb level. Yes, those are 850mb temperatures of almost 8 c in Western Nassau county. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ETAPA_18z/f36.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Keep the banter in the banter/bs thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 The 850 0c line being farther east is a hallucination on the 18z NAM...in actuality it is warmer at the 850mb level. Yes, those are 850mb temperatures of almost 8 c in Western Nassau county. http://www.meteo.psu...APA_18z/f36.gif The reason being is that the temperature gradient is really sharp on the 18z NAM. That run was colder for me in C NJ because it almost took the 0C 850 mb Temp east of me. I needed to take a closer look and see I'm between 0 and 1 Degree C at 850 mb. I'm just about in the deform band on the image that you just posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 The 850 0c line being farther east is a hallucination on the 18z NAM...in actuality it is warmer at the 850mb level. Yes, those are 850mb temperatures of almost 8 c in Western Nassau county. http://www.meteo.psu...APA_18z/f36.gif Holy frontogenesis! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I can't remember any storm where there was much wiggle room for the NYC metro. We don't live in a good location for snow. It is a much, much better spot than Norfolk....and much better than nearby ACY....there is wiggle room...not as much as say in Albany...but a few things can not be right and snow will still fall...take it from me...moved here 40 years ago.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Maybe we can pull off a Dec 25 2002. The rain quickly changed to snow faster than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 It is a much, much better spot than Norfolk....and much better than nearby ACY....there is wiggle room...not as much as say in Albany...but a few things can not be right and snow will still fall...take it from me...moved here 40 years ago.... he makes it sound like we are living on the coast of South Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 7, 2011 Author Share Posted December 7, 2011 18z NAM total accumulations with 10:1 ratios (X10). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 18z NAM total accumulations with 10:1 ratios (X10). It really wouldn't take much to give everyone a nice coating at the end to at least put everyone in a good winter/holiday mood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Her is my call gents http://www.examiner....mulation-inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 7, 2011 Author Share Posted December 7, 2011 ^ Looks great. Since we're posting calls, here's mine from earlier https://www.facebook...&type=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 ^ Looks great. Since we're posting calls, here's mine from earlier https://www.facebook...&type=1 Thanks John. Nice map on your end too...same general idea, a little less aggressive in northwest Jersey which I really can't argue with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Thanks John. Nice map on your end too...same general idea, a little less aggressive in northwest Jersey which I really can't argue with. Looks like your snowfall edge line is almost exactly where it was during the October event, yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 7, 2011 Author Share Posted December 7, 2011 NAM looks warmer already through 21 hours...I think it's safe to say the last minute cold/east trend isn't happening here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 7, 2011 Author Share Posted December 7, 2011 The surface low is actually onshore west of Ocean City, Maryland at 24 hours...god this is terrible. All i want for Christmas is a Davis Straight block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 The surface low is actually onshore west of Ocean City, Maryland at 24 hours...god this is terrible. All i want for Christmas is a Davis Straight block. What were you expecting, honestly? It's just like 2007, except its worse for some, like SNE, because they were cashing in then and they are sitting up there now praying for a trend east to hopefully get into a CCB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 7, 2011 Author Share Posted December 7, 2011 What were you expecting, honestly? Nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 looks like a dry slot may save us from any kind of flash flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 So far the 00z NAM looks very similar to the 18z NAM in terms of placement of the low and the 850 mb 0C line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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