jm1220 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 994 LOW just SE of Montauk at hour 42. Temps finally responding but its the tail end of storm. Hopefully something of a comma head develops so that more people can get swiped with snow. It will be a hell of a race between ending the precip and cold air. Doesn't look like very many people get all snow with this, maybe a very narrow stripe in E PA, the Poconos, and then on upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 The storm is over for Jersey at that hour. Under .10" falls after hour 45. looking like ending as flurries than lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 What about 42 hrs? terrible at 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Precip maps on all sites have this all rain for all of Jersey, except immediate NWNJ through hour 42. Thicknesses and temps are too high until the last 3-6 hours of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 next storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 Stick a fork in this one. After 2 straight essentially undefeated seasons with wins of all sorts, it appears our streak is over. A small loss, but a loss nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Stick a fork in this one. After 2 straight essentially undefeated seasons with wins of all sorts, it appears our streak is over. A small loss, but a loss nonetheless. This storm or winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Add in the craptastic airmass in front of the storm and its a big goose egg for 99.9% of nyc metro. Snywx should still do ok, but even he faces an uphill battle in the beginning. I think I may rain for 1 or 2 hours at the onset but the bulk of the precip here should fall as snow. Im becoming more confident in a 6"+ storm for my immediate area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 The storm is over for Jersey at that hour. Under .10" falls after hour 45. looks like .25 on the map i saw falls after hr 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I think I may rain for 1 or 2 hours at the onset but the bulk of the precip here should fall as snow. Im becoming more confident in a 6"+ storm for my immediate area.. As I stated from the beginning, you were really the only one who had a chance here, and I am not talking about a .00000001% chance that the weenies cling to. This is what to magical winters will do to people, give them false hope in miserable setups. And it's not about being due or anything like that, its about recognizing what works, and what won't. All the setups we cashed in on the last two winters were bankable setups, even 1/27 which was not a bad either, even though the west based block broke down. Going forward, I still like an above average winter, but it will not be as a result of anything we see this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 looks like .25 on the map i saw falls after hr 45 Its less. .10" for NYC and east. Almost nothing for Jersey: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Its less. .10" for NYC and east. Almost nothing for Jersey: yup my mistake juast realized i had it on 6hr increments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 This pattern really stinks. Really weird that we saw snow in October and now in December, it might be hard to get snow with the upcoming storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 As I stated from the beginning, you were really the only one who had a chance here, and I am not talking about a .00000001% chance that the weenies cling to. This is what to magical winters will do to people, give them false hope in miserable setups. And it's not about being due or anything like that, its about recognizing what works, and what won't. All the setups we cashed in on the last two winters were bankable setups, even 1/27 which was not a bad either, even though the west based block broke down. Going forward, I still like an above average winter, but it will not be as a result of anything we see this month. It truly amazing the string of winters NYC has had in the past few yrs ( especially the last 2).. Now all these kids expect it to snow whenever the calendar strikes Dec. I remember as a kid growing up in the Bronx where we were excited just to see the ground whitened by a quick clipper now its 12"+ or bust!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 This pattern really stinks. Really weird that we saw snow in October and now in December, it might be hard to get snow with the upcoming storm. We really got lucky with that Davis Strait block that came just after the brief AO drop near the end of October. Talk about perfect timing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 We really got lucky with that Davis Strait block that came just after the brief AO drop near the end of October. Talk about perfect timing... Wow, huge +AO stretch pretty much from Labor Day on. Hopefully this reverses by the end of the month and we cash in on some opportunities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Wow, huge +AO stretch pretty much from Labor Day on. Hopefully this reverses by the end of the month and we cash in on some opportunities. Yeah, it will be interesting to see if we can get some kind of reversal later in the month or in January. Like others have said,cold building around the Arctic may try to slip down if we get any decent blocking for a stretch. Then maybe some opportunities for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strongbad Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Yeah, it will be interesting to see if we can get some kind of reversal later in the month or in January. Like others have said,cold building around the Arctic may try to slip down if we get any decent blocking for a stretch. Then maybe some opportunities for snow. I figured we would need a warmer Arctic as that is sometimes a sign of stratospheric warming, hence blocking. No? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I figured we would need a warmer Arctic as that is sometimes a sign of stratospheric warming, hence blocking. No? I was talking more about some of the record cold that we saw over Alaska back in November with the PV. The -EPO is helping out but relative to the means coldest has been out west. But yeah, you would want to see warmer conditions and rising heights across the Arctic with more of a -AO pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 The 45 hr GFS has the 850 0c line near Montauk and the 925mb 0c line near there as well. With 0.50-0.75" liquid in the last three hours throughout the region, hypothetically 1/3 of that could be frozen west of the city. Probably would be a 1-2" type deal there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 That being said the soundings were very bad on the NAM...Forky and I were discussing via text message how most of the area doesn't get the -10c layer to be saturated. Something to watch (snywx im talking to you) Anyway, part at snywx's house Wednesday night. Starts at 11pm, bring your snow pants. $5 cover and I'll bring 10 30's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 The 45 hr GFS has the 850 0c line near Montauk and the 925mb 0c line near there as well. With 0.50-0.75" liquid in the last three hours throughout the region, hypothetically 1/3 of that could be frozen west of the city. Probably would be a 1-2" type deal there. GFS BL temps were improved.. NAM might have been a little colder than 6z. It looks like maybe a little snow to the cities, but not much at this point. We were not expecting much anyway. This has always been a long shot due to lack of cold air to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Thermally, I would take the NAM over the GFS. The GFS was beyond awful with the late Oct storm, and the NAM was even a little too warm then. The NAM is better able to see penetrations of cold/warm etc than the GFS with poorer resolution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I remember the NAM forecast soundings running too cold for our area back with the end of October storm. The snow got in faster but it missed the warming during the afternoon. I have also been noticing the 2m temps running a bit cool in situations especially beyond 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I remember the NAM forecast soundings running too cold for our area back with the end of October storm. The snow got in faster but it missed the warming during the afternoon. I have also been noticing the 2m temps running a bit cool in situations especially beyond 24 hours. We really got shafted then because the precip broke up and became spotty during that afternoon. Warm air quickly won out and we mostly had light rain or sleet until later that night when the weak backlash came through. If we had a solid batch of precip throughout that day, it likely would've remained snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 We really got shafted then because the precip broke up and became spotty during that afternoon. Warm air quickly won out and we mostly had light rain or sleet until later that night when the weak backlash came through. If we had a solid batch of precip throughout that day, it likely would've remained snow. Yeah, it looks like we got too close to the mid-level drying and more easterly LLJ of the still mild Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Fwiw, the 12z Nam text soundings show 2.3 inches of snow for NYC http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_Knyc.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 That being said the soundings were very bad on the NAM...Forky and I were discussing via text message how most of the area doesn't get the -10c layer to be saturated. Something to watch (snywx im talking to you) Anyway, part at snywx's house Wednesday night. Starts at 11pm, bring your snow pants. $5 cover and I'll bring 10 30's. I was looking at the soundings myself and @ hr42 its pretty much right on the cusp. Anything after that I would suspect is snow.. On the other hand the GFS is cooler.. Would it be wise to take the middle ground between the two or would you take the NAM ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Fwiw, the 12z Nam text soundings show 2.3 inches of snow for NYC http://68.226.77.253...FC/NAM_Knyc.txt Wow.. The 12z NAM still drops 10" on my region.. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_Kmgj.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 12z UKMET at 42hrs, has a 994mb low over Eastern LI sound. 850mb temps above 0C until extreme NW NJ and Orange county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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