snywx Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Nailed it. 8pm obs: 35/32. Light snow. Im guessing we flip here on the western fringes by 11pm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY. * LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. * WINDS...NORTHWEST 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 TO 50 MPH. * TIMING...1 AM TO 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...SMALL TREE LIMBS MAY BE DOWNED CAUSING ISOLATED POWER OBJECTS. yikes... Finally a good old wind event to make it a little interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Im guessing we flip here on the western fringes by 11pm.. Sounds reasonable. There's bright banding visible on regional radar in NWNJ and NEPA. That suggests partially melted flakes above 2000ft or so. The 850mb line is progged to cross the NW border of NJ around 10pm. Because of the current temp profile, the highest elevations should accumulate before the mid-elevaions, i.e., ~600ft, and well before the valley floors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Finally a good old wind event to make it a little interesting Ehhh, those winds are nothing. 50-70 mph winds are something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Sounds reasonable. There's bright banding visible on regional radar in NWNJ and NEPA. That suggests partially melted flakes above 2000ft or so. The 850mb line is progged to cross the NW border of NJ around 10pm. Because of the current temp profile, the highest elevations should accumulate before the mid-elevaions, i.e., ~600ft, and well before the valley floors. Sounds good.. For the western part of Orange county >500' whats your thinking? 3-5"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Sounds good.. For the western part of Orange county >500' whats your thinking? 3-5"? 2-4" with the upper range aoa 1000ft. The 0z NAM is slightly weaker in the mid-levels than previous runs. The result is a weaker, less wrapped up low center. Shifts the heaviest banding southeast of previous target area and pulls the mid-level cold in slightly quicker. Looks a bit better for Orange County... and other NW burbs. Big shift east for ENY and CVT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Ehhh, those winds are nothing. 50-70 mph winds are something You never know lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 This seems to be the most accurate as per obs throughout NE PA.. Port Jervis should be mixing very soon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 hard to see this right now :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 hard to see this right now :/ What a waste! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 hopefully this is a great example to us that a little spinning low on the BM doesnt tell the full story.....we always need some kind of trapped cold air. doesnt always have to be ideal davis straight block like oct 2011 but SOMETHING to keep the cold air locked in or at least enough of it to feed into the system. im really enjoying this system, learning a bit from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 hard to see this right now :/ Check out where the mid-level lows have been this evening. This is just starting to get better stacked now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 hard to see this right now :/ Similiar but different outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 wind will be the best part of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 good call up that way. Crazy winds on Long Island! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 good call up that way. Crazy winds on Long Island! soundings showed it well. Just got a picture from the old man in Orange County with absolutely nothing on the ground at 700 feet elevation. Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 soundings showed it well. Just got a picture from the old man in Orange County with absolutely nothing on the ground at 700 feet elevation. Ouch. Ouch is right. Oh well, still an impressive storm due to rain (atleast out this way 2-3 inches) and strong winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 She was impressive. Mid level jet once again doing its thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 She was impressive. Mid level jet once again doing its thing. Good job! I lost power twice, like you said very march 2010 like, also many trees down frOm saturated ground, west hampton gusted to 69 and I heard somewhere in SNE gusted 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 soundings showed it well. Just got a picture from the old man in Orange County with absolutely nothing on the ground at 700 feet elevation. Ouch. Aside from the occasional car which had snow on it there isn't much to report at least in my travels this morning in the Montgomery, Middletown, Goshen area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 the pressure rose 10 mb in an hour at kfok last night http://www.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KFOK.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 the pressure rose 10 mb in an hour at kfok last night http://www.weather.g...story/KFOK.html yea that looks like a GWAVE couplet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Aside from the occasional car which had snow on it there isn't much to report at least in my travels this morning in the Montgomery, Middletown, Goshen area. It's not surprising given how things dried out when it finally got cold enough. I hope everyone puts down' the euro snow and nam weenie maps now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 The radar looked great around the time that the strongest winds were occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 The radar looked great around the time that the strongest winds were occurring. Yeah heavy precip and strong winds here I'd say 1am ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Yeah heavy precip and strong winds here I'd say 1am ish Absolutely howling winds last night here in nassau, no tree damage to be seen though, i guess all the weaklings came down w irene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Yeah heavy precip and strong winds here I'd say 1am ish Around 1-2 am here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Absolutely howling winds last night here in nassau, no tree damage to be seen though, i guess all the weaklings came down w irene Some tree damage here and lost power twice once at 1230 came back on then again at 2ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Very impressive performance by the UKIE. Showing the amplification and filthy warmth way out. Good job. That's two in its corner this winter. It nailed the October storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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