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12/7-12/8 Potential Event Discussion Part II


earthlight

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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WIND

ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY.

* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER

AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 TO 50 MPH.

* TIMING...1 AM TO 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...SMALL TREE LIMBS MAY BE DOWNED CAUSING ISOLATED POWER OBJECTS.

yikes...

Finally a good old wind event to make it a little interesting

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Im guessing we flip here on the western fringes by 11pm..

Sounds reasonable. There's bright banding visible on regional radar in NWNJ and NEPA. That suggests partially melted flakes above 2000ft or so. The 850mb line is progged to cross the NW border of NJ around 10pm.

Because of the current temp profile, the highest elevations should accumulate before the mid-elevaions, i.e., ~600ft, and well before the valley floors.

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Sounds reasonable. There's bright banding visible on regional radar in NWNJ and NEPA. That suggests partially melted flakes above 2000ft or so. The 850mb line is progged to cross the NW border of NJ around 10pm.

Because of the current temp profile, the highest elevations should accumulate before the mid-elevaions, i.e., ~600ft, and well before the valley floors.

Sounds good.. For the western part of Orange county >500' whats your thinking? 3-5"?

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Sounds good.. For the western part of Orange county >500' whats your thinking? 3-5"?

2-4" with the upper range aoa 1000ft.

The 0z NAM is slightly weaker in the mid-levels than previous runs. The result is a weaker, less wrapped up low center. Shifts the heaviest banding southeast of previous target area and pulls the mid-level cold in slightly quicker. Looks a bit better for Orange County... and other NW burbs.

Big shift east for ENY and CVT.

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hopefully this is a great example to us that a little spinning low on the BM doesnt tell the full story.....we always need some kind of trapped cold air. doesnt always have to be ideal davis straight block like oct 2011 but SOMETHING to keep the cold air locked in or at least enough of it to feed into the system.

im really enjoying this system, learning a bit from it.

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soundings showed it well.

Just got a picture from the old man in Orange County with absolutely nothing on the ground at 700 feet elevation.

Ouch.

Aside from the occasional car which had snow on it there isn't much to report at least in my travels this morning in the Montgomery, Middletown, Goshen area.

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Aside from the occasional car which had snow on it there isn't much to report at least in my travels this morning in the Montgomery, Middletown, Goshen area.

It's not surprising given how things dried out when it finally got cold enough.

I hope everyone puts down' the euro snow and nam weenie maps now.

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