TheTrials Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Getting closer... 39.8/39 18Z NAM per skew t's flips you at 11/12 hours but its over around 13/14 hours. I think its colder when it does flip it also starts to dry out the snow growth region at 12 hours, so still a big race for you. Make sure you take pictures of your measurements so you can call me out on bust and don't do what earthlight does which is to pile all the snow in the driveway on his front porch and then put a yard stick in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Comparing the wind profile to the temp on weather underground interesting how it matches with the wind flow, extreme northwest NJ is getting its cold air not from the west directly, from indirectly in a circular route through central NYS, as opposed to directly northwest....following that east, long island area, even though we have north wind, it is coming from well well east of where the folks in northern westchester are getting their cold air...i see northern westchester doing ok, but long island...pfff... ...you can say that again...pfff for long island..i'm @ 55*@315pm here in eastport..winds are v. light out of the SW...this will be a non event for us..as a matter of fact December will be a non event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 ...you can say that again...pfff for long island..i'm @ 55*@315pm here in eastport..winds are v. light out of the SW...this will be a non event for us..as a matter of fact December will be a non event.. There's plenty of December left. This storm is a non-event, save for maybe a few flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Doesn't look completely neutral to me (?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I'm curious when Scranton Wilkes-Barre changes over. They're currently at 40/38 just below 1000ft. I bet they start mixing by 8pm. If so, I think the western fringe of our subforum area has a shot at a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 The trough does have a bit of a negative tilt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Doesn't look completely neutral to me (?) yeah a quick glance shows the PV crawling alittle more south over the MW, really pumping heights over the east and causing the trough/vort to take on more of a neg tilt. This is a coastal hugger alright lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 The back end snow potential looks a bit interesting for this... with the cold air rushing in at the back end of the storm and the southern edge of the deformation band reaching the major cities as the storm moves out, there could be a 1-2 hour burst of snow, especially for the N/W suburbs. Probably wouldn't accumulate much, but would be something nice to see at 4 AM. There also seems to be a short period of windy conditions as the storm moves out early on Thursday morning with 30+ mph gusts possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 5-6" as per 18z NAM text soundings.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 its 45F here..temps really havent dropped much the past few hrs. this is quite the rain event so thankfully Nov was dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Bright banding showing the apprx. elevated rain/snow line from near State College to halfway between Scranton and BGM to west of ALB. Shows up nicely. http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 yeah a quick glance shows the PV crawling alittle more south over the MW, really pumping heights over the east and causing the trough/vort to take on more of a neg tilt. This is a coastal hugger alright lol When was the last time we had a coastal hugger? We have been really lucky with storms of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Looks like binghamton has switched back over to rain and the rain/snow line has stopped pushing south... http://www.weather.com/weather/map/interactive/USNY1067 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 The short range models FWIW also show the back end 1-2 hour light snow potential, the RR and HRRR 1-hour snowfall loops show the very southern edge of the deformation band moving over the cities and especially the N/W suburbs, and although the RUC is warmer it's not too far north of NYC with the back end flakes. The short range models also push the storm out faster than expected, with the precipitation already moving out by 8-9z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Looks like binghamton has switched back over to rain and the rain/snow line has stopped pushing south... http://www.weather.c...active/USNY1067 Im hearing mixing in Lackawanna county now ( Scranton-Wilkes Bare). Getting closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Bright banding showing the apprx. elevated rain/snow line from near State College to halfway between Scranton and BGM to west of ALB. Shows up nicely. http://radar.weather...s/full_loop.php i think that we switch to snow once that pushes by our area, it looks like once behind that line you get an hour or two of light to moderate snow.. we'll see how well the deform band develops behind that line.. but it looks encouraging for an hour or two of decent snow behind that line.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Looks like binghamton has switched back over to rain and the rain/snow line has stopped pushing south... http://www.weather.c...active/USNY1067 that radar is not reliable imo. obs say light snow with temp at 32f with North winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 that radar is not reliable imo. obs say light snow with temp at 32f with North winds. I usually dont trust its accuracy...but the weather.com actual obs also said rain and 34... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 HRRR The large 0.1"+ area probably tells that the snow won't accumulate along the I-95 corridor, although the loop that I posted earlier does show a brief 1-2 hour period of light snow affecting NYC and especially the N/W suburbs. If the southern end of the deformation band does move over us as modeled, a short lasting period of light snow mostly N/W of the city would be a reasonable possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Looks like binghamton has switched back over to rain and the rain/snow line has stopped pushing south... http://www.weather.c...active/USNY1067 BGM webcam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 BGM webcam very nice...i think my post is like 30 min old at this point and i didnt do the obs ahaha...but its awesome to see snow somewhere... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 very nice...i think my post is like 30 min old at this point and i didnt do the obs ahaha...but its awesome to see snow somewhere... The ridgetops around BGM still look on track to get 6"+, but the radar isn't surging northward like the RUC has been showing, so they probably won't get slammed. The returns are sliding northeastward, which is unlucky for them but fortunate for everyone east of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 very nice...i think my post is like 30 min old at this point and i didnt do the obs ahaha...but its awesome to see snow somewhere... yea...the r/s line looks SE of the airport, which is +1000ft so you might get some fluctuations as you head to lower levels... but even so, it looks like the line doesnt necc make a huge push SE until the low gets closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 if we only had blocking...yea i know, many have said this. but if you look at all the moisture that rode up over the front today, the WAA is abundance. we would have had like 12"+ from this alone....before the cbb got underway. hopefully come Jan and Feb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY. * LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. * WINDS...NORTHWEST 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 TO 50 MPH. * TIMING...1 AM TO 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...SMALL TREE LIMBS MAY BE DOWNED CAUSING ISOLATED POWER OBJECTS. yikes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 UPTON: MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM WAS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE FOR THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. MODELS HAVE INCREASED THE QPF OVER THAT REGION...BUT WITH THE FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF COLD AIR USHERING DECIDED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW...BUT UNCERTAIN ON AMOUNTS. FOR NOW HAVE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW FALLING FOR THAT AREA. TIMING OF THE SNOW FALL WILL BE QUICK AS THIS SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY MOVING. ONCE THE COLD AIR DOES USHER IN...THERMAL PROFILE SHOW THAT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW. THIS CHANGE OVER WILL BE QUICK AND EXPECT VERY LITTLE TO NO ICE ACCUMULATION. THERE MAY BE SOME MESOSCALE BANDING ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...HOWEVER THE BETTER CHANCE IS FARTHER NORTHWEST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 I'm curious when Scranton Wilkes-Barre changes over. They're currently at 40/38 just below 1000ft. I bet they start mixing by 8pm. If so, I think the western fringe of our subforum area has a shot at a few inches. Nailed it. 8pm obs: 35/32. Light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 yea...the r/s line looks SE of the airport, which is +1000ft so you might get some fluctuations as you head to lower levels... but even so, it looks like the line doesnt necc make a huge push SE until the low gets closer. The airport serving Greater Binghamton (formerly known as Broome County Airport) is closer to the 1600 foot elevation contor...the idea that it could be raining up there in December demonstrates the anomalously warm aimas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.