TheTrials Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Everyone in the SNE thread is saying its SE and good for them.. If its good for them its awesome for us here.. Just took a look at the weenie maps from wunderground.. Still shows a general 4" snowfall for my immeidate area.. because it shoots directly east, not up into CC, that helps them, not u. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 KPOU - 43/39 KSWF - 43/40 KMGJ - 42/40 KFWN - 44/42 Gettin there. I'd like to see some 30s by 5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 7, 2011 Author Share Posted December 7, 2011 EURO bring the center of the low almost to extreme western li before it shunts it east. Good night to all looking for snow. This post is not correct and I think it is very regionalized and biased. There are locations in our forecast area in Orange/Susaex counties that still are in line for a few inches of snow based on this run. It's not really that drastically different from any model we have seen over the past 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 This post is not correct and I think it is very regionalized and biased. There are locations in our forecast area in Orange/Susaex counties that still are in line for a few inches of snow based on this run. It's not really that drastically different from any model we have seen over the past 24 hours. euro clown map gives me 3+. how are those maps compared to the nam snowfall maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 This post is not correct and I think it is very regionalized and biased. There are locations in our forecast area in Orange/Susaex counties that still are in line for a few inches of snow based on this run. It's not really that drastically different from any model we have seen over the past 24 hours. There is barely anything left on the euro for those areas when it cold enough to snow. Bringing the surface low that far into the coast is big trouble. I respectfully disagree, but oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 KPOU - 43/39 KSWF - 43/40 KMGJ - 42/40 KFWN - 44/42 Gettin there. I'd like to see some 30s by 5pm. KLGA - 51/49 KJFK - 53/52 KFRG - 53/51 KSLP - 54/53 KNYC - 50/48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 NAM does not tuck the center as far west. The thermal profile is a result of the track. It really does tuck it. You have to compare them on the same graphical charts, and then account for slightly different forward speeds between the GFS, NAM, and Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 7, 2011 Author Share Posted December 7, 2011 euro clown map gives me 3+. how are those maps compared to the nam snowfall maps? They are clown maps no doubt but the text data I have is fine for a few hrs of snow..probably an inch or two especially at higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 There is barely anything left on the euro for those areas when it cold enough to snow. Bringing the surface low that far into the coast is big trouble. I respectfully disagree, but oh well. i think the interior dudes still have a good shot at accumulating snow, over the past 2 years we've seen what good dynamics can do with borderline temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 7, 2011 Author Share Posted December 7, 2011 There is barely anything left on the euro for those areas when it cold enough to snow. Bringing the surface low that far into the coast is big trouble. I respectfully disagree, but oh well. The thermal profiles are still supportive for a few hours of snow over Orange county/NW NJ/ NE PA if you take the Euro literally. The generalization "goodnight to all looking for snow" is silly in this situation when there are such drastic changes in climate in our area which are being magnified by an impressive thermal gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 KPOU - 43/39 KSWF - 43/40 KMGJ - 42/40 KFWN - 44/42 Gettin there. I'd like to see some 30s by 5pm. 40.8/40 here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 hard to believe the late October storm not only started pretty much as snow, but during the daytime.. here we have an event, over a month later, ongoing during the night-time, and it's a mostly rain - turning to snow at the end... the ground has got to be really warm and getting snow to stick with the warm and wet conditions is gonna be ugly... but I'm sure it'll happen.. there'll be some insane rates for a couple hours and high elevations should get some good slop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 The thermal profiles are still supportive for a few hours of snow over Orange county/NW NJ/ NE PA if you take the Euro literally. The generalization "goodnight to all looking for snow" is silly in this situation when there are such drastic changes in climate in our area which are being magnified by an impressive thermal gradient. You hit the nail right on the head.. The differences within this county itself is pretty impressive let alone a 50-75 mile span. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 The thermal profiles are still supportive for a few hours of snow over Orange county/NW NJ/ NE PA if you take the Euro literally. The generalization "goodnight to all looking for snow" is silly in this situation when there are such drastic changes in climate in our area which are being magnified by an impressive thermal gradient. Hopefully most can get a thump of heavy snow as the storm passes our latitude.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 The thermal profiles are still supportive for a few hours of snow over Orange county/NW NJ/ NE PA if you take the Euro literally. The generalization "goodnight to all looking for snow" is silly in this situation when there are such drastic changes in climate in our area which are being magnified by an impressive thermal gradient. agreed. 15 degree spread right now within our forum area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 18Z Observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xram Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 KPOU - 43/39 KSWF - 43/40 KMGJ - 42/40 KFWN - 44/42 Gettin there. I'd like to see some 30s by 5pm. 41.8/40 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 18Z Observations Comparing the wind profile to the temp on weather underground interesting how it matches with the wind flow, extreme northwest NJ is getting its cold air not from the west directly, from indirectly in a circular route through central NYS, as opposed to directly northwest....following that east, long island area, even though we have north wind, it is coming from well well east of where the folks in northern westchester are getting their cold air...i see northern westchester doing ok, but long island...pfff... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 From Upton Regarding temps .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... -- Changed Discussion -- 0130 PM UPDATE... SURFACE WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE REGION FROM KACY TO KPVD...STRADDLING LONG ISLAND. SURFACE OBS INDICATE A GOOD TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH COLDER AND DRIER AIR NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND WARMER AIR SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA. APPEARS THAT A BREAK OF PRECIP MAY OCCUR AS OVER THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SURFACE LOW TONIGHT...EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP. DECIDED TO HOIST A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REST OF THE AREA EXPECT FOR SUFFOLK COUNTY AS MODEL GUIDANCE QPF HAS INDICATED 2 TO 2 AND ONE HALF INCHES OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR. THE HEAVIER PRECIP LOOKS TO FALL ACROSS NJ AND INTO CT...BUT WITH A LITTLE FLEXIBILITY ADDED MOST OF THE NY ZONES AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT MAY STALL OUT EITHER OVER LONG ISLAND OR JUST OFF THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE WATERS AND ON LAND IN THE EVENING HOURS AS PRESSURE FALLS INCREASE DUE TO APPROACHING SURFACE PRESSURE. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 BGM looks great for the rest of the afternoon. Currently 33/31 -sn vis = 0.75 They should be able to hit half a foot. Possibly more just to the east. Here's the 12z NAM forecast sounding for 1pm. Looks like an elevated snow sounding to me. BGM is at 1600ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 BGM looks great for the rest of the afternoon. Currently 33/31 -sn vis = 0.75 They should be able to hit half a foot. Possibly more just to the east. Here's the 12z NAM forecast sounding for 1pm. Looks like an elevated snow sounding to me. BGM is at 1600ft. Albany 38 °F 97% 29.78 in (Rising) Light Rain Mist North at 6 mph 1:51 PM EST Save Montgomery 41 °F 96% 29.72 in (Falling) Light Rain NNE at 7 mph 1:51 PM EST Save Monticello 41 °F 96% 29.72 in (Falling) Light Rain NNE at 7 mph 1:51 PM EST Save Saranac Lake 34 °F 92% 29.78 in (Rising) Overcast Calm 1:51 PM EST Save Schenectady 38 °F 97% 29.78 in (Rising) Light Rain Mist North at 6 mph 1:51 PM EST Save Dunkirk 35 °F 82% 29.87 in (Falling) Overcast ESE at 4 mph 1:53 PM EST Save Ogdensburg 36 °F 82% 29.84 in (Falling) Overcast NNW at 5 mph 1:53 PM EST Save Plattsburgh 35 °F 89% 29.83 in (Falling) Overcast North at 5 mph 1:53 PM EST Save Poughkeepsie 43 °F 93% 29.72 in (Falling) Light Rain Mist North at 5 mph 1:53 PM EST Save Dansville 34 °F 92% 29.88 in (Falling) Overcast NW at 8 mph 1:54 PM EST Save Rochester 34 °F 89% 29.87 in (Falling) Overcast WNW at 7 mph 1:54 PM EST Save Islip 56 °F 93% 29.66 in (Falling) Rain Mist North at 5 mph 1:56 PM EST Save Shirley 57 °F 93% 29.68 in (Falling) Light Rain Mist Calm 1:56 PM EST Save Massena 35.5 °F 86% 29.77 in Overcast NW at 2.0 mph 2:00 PM EST Save Utica 37 °F 93% 29.81 in (Falling) Overcast WNW at 7 mph 2:01 PM EST Save Farmingdale http://icons-ak.wxug.com/graphics/PUB.gif 53.8 °F 98% 29.67 in Light Rain Mist Calm 2:05 PM EST Save Binghamton http://icons-ak.wxug.com/graphics/WIN.gif 34 °F 87% 29.75 in (Rising) Light Snow Mist NNW at 8 mph 2:06 PM EST Save Buffalo 34 °F 75% 29.83 in (Falling) Overcast Calm 2:11 PM EST Save Elmira 37 °F 87% 29.80 in (Rising) Light Rain NNW at 5 mph 2:11 PM EST Save Fort Drum 34 °F 100% 29.84 in (Falling) Overcast Calm 2:11 PM EST Save Fulton 37 °F 93% 29.81 in (Falling) Light Rain Mist NW at 4 mph 2:11 PM EST Save New York http://icons-ak.wxug.com/graphics/WAT.gif http://icons-ak.wxug.com/graphics/PUB.gif 57.2 °F 44% 29.59 in Overcast Calm 2:11 PM EST Save Watertown 34 °F 100% 29.84 in (Falling) Overcast Calm 2:11 PM EST Save Jamestown 32.4 °F 88% 29.96 in Overcast NW at 1.0 mph 2:13 PM EST Save Syracuse 37.8 °F 91% 29.77 in Drizzle Mist NW at 1.0 mph 2:15 PM EST Save Wellsville 32 °F 93% 29.77 in (Rising) Light Snow Fog NNW at 5 mph 2:15 PM EST Save Glens Falls http://icons-ak.wxug.com/graphics/PUB.gif 37.4 °F 88% 29.75 in Light Rain Mist Calm 2:18 PM EST Save Ithaca 35.8 °F 96% 29.01 in Light Rain Mist North at 7.0 mph 2:18 PM EST Save Newburgh http://icons-ak.wxug.com/graphics/WAT.gif http://icons-ak.wxug.com/graphics/PUB.gif 42.1 °F 94% 29.65 in Light Rain Mist Calm 2:18 PM EST Save Niagara Falls 37.6 °F 62% 29.69 in Overcast Calm 2:18 PM EST Save Westhampton http://icons-ak.wxug.com/graphics/PUB.gif 55.9 °F 98% 29.64 in Light Rain Mist WSW at 2.0 mph 2:18 PM EST Save White Plains http://icons-ak.wxug.com/graphics/WAT.gif http://icons-ak.wxug.com/graphics/PUB.gif 49.5 °F 98% 29.65 in Overcast Calm 2:18 PM EST Save U.S. Weather Warning Legend http://icons-ak.wxug...raphics/TOR.gif Tornado Warning http://icons-ak.wxug...raphics/TOW.gif Tornado Watch http://icons-ak.wxug...raphics/WRN.gif Severe Thunderstorm Warning http://icons-ak.wxug...raphics/SEW.gif Severe Thunderstorm Watch http://icons-ak.wxug...raphics/WIN.gif Winter Weather Statement http://icons-ak.wxug...raphics/WND.gif High Wind Advisory http://icons-ak.wxug...raphics/FLO.gif Flood Warning http://icons-ak.wxug...raphics/WAT.gif Flood Watch / Flood Statement http://icons-ak.wxug...raphics/HUR.gif Hurricane Local Statement http://icons-ak.wxug...raphics/HEA.gif Heat Advisory http://icons-ak.wxug...raphics/FOG.gif Dense Fog Advisory http://icons-ak.wxug...raphics/FIR.gif Fire Weather Advisory http://icons-ak.wxug...raphics/SPE.gif Special Weather Statement http://icons-ak.wxug...raphics/REC.gif Record Set http://icons-ak.wxug...raphics/REP.gif Public Reports http://icons-ak.wxug...raphics/PUB.gif Public Statement there ya go...snow in bing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 From Upton Regarding temps .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... -- Changed Discussion -- 0130 PM UPDATE... SURFACE WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE REGION FROM KACY TO KPVD...STRADDLING LONG ISLAND. SURFACE OBS INDICATE A GOOD TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH COLDER AND DRIER AIR NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND WARMER AIR SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA. APPEARS THAT A BREAK OF PRECIP MAY OCCUR AS OVER THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SURFACE LOW TONIGHT...EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP. DECIDED TO HOIST A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REST OF THE AREA EXPECT FOR SUFFOLK COUNTY AS MODEL GUIDANCE QPF HAS INDICATED 2 TO 2 AND ONE HALF INCHES OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR. THE HEAVIER PRECIP LOOKS TO FALL ACROSS NJ AND INTO CT...BUT WITH A LITTLE FLEXIBILITY ADDED MOST OF THE NY ZONES AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT MAY STALL OUT EITHER OVER LONG ISLAND OR JUST OFF THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE WATERS AND ON LAND IN THE EVENING HOURS AS PRESSURE FALLS INCREASE DUE TO APPROACHING SURFACE PRESSURE. -- End Changed Discussion -- That front is crawling.. Its went through here around midnight last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 41.9 here. hoping for 2 overnight, and have to stay up for it as well. Only chance for the christmas lights to be on while snowcovered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 i don't see much in the way of a dry slot for us http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/2km.php?loop=1&type=rad®ion=VA_WV&numimages=24 maybe some periodic breaks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 41.9 here. hoping for 2 overnight, and have to stay up for it as well. Only chance for the christmas lights to be on while snowcovered Yep it looks like a few inches for us. Probably a general 1-3" with 3-5" possible for the highest elevations at or above 1200' along with areas further NW in Sussex County and up into NE PA and N&W Orange county. Though it would probably not take much to get us into that range it does seem less likely than more likely at this point. Last I looked I was at 43/42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 18z NAM is coming in weaker with the vortmax and slightly more open at 500mb through 9hrs. That's going to lower heights and could nudge the storm track southeast. I'd rather see the location of the vortmax itself slightly southeast, but this looks okay too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 18z NAM is coming in weaker with the vortmax and slightly more open at 500mb through 9hrs. That's going to lower heights and could nudge the storm track southeast. I'd rather see the location of the vortmax itself slightly southeast, but this looks okay too. This run looks better for NWNJ and even parts of NNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 This run looks better for NWNJ and even parts of NNJ. Yeah I think it does too, slightly colder. But the low is somewhat surprisingly a hair stronger and just as tucked in. Looks great for the Poconos through the Catskills... even the Capital District. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Quick look at 18z NAM increases snow to NWNJ. Has close to 4" now and brings 1"-2" for most of NNJ as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Getting closer... 39.8/39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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