IsentropicLift Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 It has less than .1 falling after 06z tonight when temps are still in the upper 30s/low 40s....by the time any decent cold air works in the precip has ended. Not saying it can't snow for a bit on the backside but it certainly won't stick to anything. It is certainly not interesting if you live east of the Hudson river and it's nothing to get excited about period, but the potential is still there west of Rt. 287 and especially north and west of Rt. 23. If it wasn't for the fact that we have already seen warning criteria snowfall up here this year I think they would have gone with advisories for at least another tier south and east but awarness is already raised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I wouldn't get my hopes up even where you are. It is certainly not interesting if you live east of the Hudson river and it's nothing to get excited about period, but the potential is still there west of Rt. 287 and especially north and west of Rt. 23. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 It has less than .1 falling after 06z tonight when temps are still in the upper 30s/low 40s....by the time any decent cold air works in the precip has ended. Not saying it can't snow for a bit on the backside but it certainly won't stick to anything. you're wasting your breath, he refuses to learn that the maps show previous period precip and current thermal profiles. He also doesn't know that just because there is a big L off the coast, it doesn't mean it will snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I wouldn't get my hopes up even where you are. Nah to be honest I am hoping it doesn't stick up here so that it will be easier for me to get to work in the morning. There is no such thing as a snow day for my company. The only time in the last 20 years that we have closed for a weather related problem was Dec. 27 last year, and largely because the plow service couldn't get to our lot. As I said, the JP zone will be somewhere between West Milford, Vernon and Middletown, NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 It is certainly not interesting if you live east of the Hudson river and it's nothing to get excited about period, but the potential is still there west of Rt. 287 and especially north and west of Rt. 23. If it wasn't for the fact that we have already seen warning criteria snowfall up here this year I think they would have gone with advisories for at least another tier south and east but awarness is already raised. Unfortunately I think that for this one, even west Milford will only get up to an inch MAYBE two. The low is tucked too close to the coast...good setup for the poconos though and southern NY state interior...maybe up to 10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Nah to be honest I am hoping it doesn't stick up here so that it will be easier for me to get to work in the morning. There is no such thing as a snow day for my company. The only time in the last 20 years that we have closed for a weather related problem was Dec. 27 last year, and largely because the plow service couldn't get to our lot. As I said, the JP zone will be somewhere between West Milford, Vernon and Middletown, NY. yea dude, id be worried about ur commute tomorrow as well if i were you. All those slippery leaves and standing water could be a menace... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 This is why I love living west of I-287, we get in on all the extra snowfall that the city misses out on. I seem to be in almost the perfect location the last few years, just far enough west to get mostly snow yet close enough to the coast to not miss out on the big noreasters. Anybody from Butler north up through Ringwood, Vernon, West Milford and into Orange County should easily see 4"+ no way, how r u going to squeze 4 inches out of .25 precip or less and with borderline temps. If i get a half inch ill be happy. by the way u live in pomtopn plains? thats not west of 287 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 no way, how r u going to squeze 4 inches out of .25 precip and with borderline temps. If i get a half inch ill be happy. by the way u live in pomtopn plains? thats not west of 287 lol, geography FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 no way, how r u going to squeze 4 inches out of .25 precip and with borderline temps. If i get a half inch ill be happy. by the way u live in pomtopn plains? thats not west of 287 How did you get that from what I wrote? I said areas like West Milford and Vernon could get that high, the places that are always historically colder than everyone else. For the record, I-287 slices through Pompton Plains on the border with Kinnelon and Riverdale, so half the town is west and half the town is east of I-287. I will gladly take my 1-2" tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 yea dude, id be worried about ur commute tomorrow as well if i were you. All those slippery leaves and standing water could be a menace... Even a half inch up this way is enough to cause problems on I-287. We had one of these events last year that took me 2 hours to get to work. There wasn't even any snow on the roadway but it was coming down and people were driving slowly because of it. Luckily it should be over before the morning commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 no way, how r u going to squeze 4 inches out of .25 precip or less and with borderline temps. If i get a half inch ill be happy. by the way u live in pomtopn plains? thats not west of 287 It would only take a slightly earlier flip to snow than expected to drop a quick 2-4" Hourly liquid equivalents could exceed 0.2" per at the height of the storm, a few hours before ending. I'm siding with the lower numbers, because a deep layer of the column is warm until about 5z. But as early as 03z, most of the above freezing column is ~2C isothermal. To me that continues to highlight the possible parachute bomb scenario, esp in western Sussex and Orange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 And im still a good amount west of MGJ.. Yes you are and you and I have seen how that can affect things one way or the other, in addition to our difference in elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Since we don't have an observation thread yet I will post it here. We are down to a temp of 48 degrees already after being at 59 at 6:30 this morning. Temps are dropping quickly as forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 How did you get that from what I wrote? I said areas like West Milford and Vernon could get that high, the places that are always historically colder than everyone else. For the record, I-287 slices through Pompton Plains on the border with Kinnelon and Riverdale, so half the town is west and half the town is east of I-287. I will gladly take my 1-2" tonight. lol half? one small piece maybe and does anyone even live there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 It would only take a slightly earlier flip to snow than expected to drop a quick 2-4" Hourly liquid equivalents could exceed 0.2" per at the height of the storm, a few hours before ending. I'm siding with the lower numbers, because a deep layer of the column is warm until about 5z. But as early as 03z, most of the above freezing column is ~2C isothermal. To me that continues to highlight the possible parachute bomb scenario, esp in western Sussex and Orange. that i agree with. but i live in butler and border west milford. no way we see 4 inches. could be very isolated spots in west milford that get 2-3 with the elevations over 1000 ft. majority of westmilford is about 600 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Not sure if it means much but surface temps are colder here then the 12z NAM had forecasted.. for 18z it had my area around 45*.. Currently still sitting around 41* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Yes you are and you and I have seen how that can affect things one way or the other, in addition to our difference in elevation. I think we may be in for some surprises tonight.. Havent lost hope yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Since we don't have an observation thread yet I will post it here. We are down to a temp of 48 degrees already after being at 59 at 6:30 this morning. Temps are dropping quickly as forecasted. Based on the WRF-NMM 4 chart graphical panels on ewall - http://www.meteo.psu...2z/etaloop.html - it's currently running 2-3F colder than modeled throughout the HV from Albany to NYC. The charts don't drop my temp to my current 43F until 4-5pm. Weenie wishcasting at its best. This is likely a meaningless deviation, but if the models continue to be too warm throughout the column, there will be a period of heavy snowfall NW of a Morristown to Harriman line after 10pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Milford Highlander Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Not accurate - center of town is near 600 and near Butler border which you are referring to. but majority is 800-1100. I agree with you though - can't believe the lunatics calling for 6-10 yesterday on the backedge of a storm wrapping itself up. Guess that's what happens when you look at the NAM maps. that i agree with. but i live in butler and border west milford. no way we see 4 inches. could be very isolated spots in west milford that get 2-3 with the elevations over 1000 ft. majority of westmilford is about 600 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 17Z Observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Warnings for western Greene and the Berkshire counties. If the southern berkshires get 5"+, I bet part of the mid-HV - Orange, Dutchess, Ulster, Columbia get a few inches as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 EURO bring the center of the low almost to extreme western li before it shunts it east. Good night to all looking for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 EURO bring the center of the low almost to extreme western li before it shunts it east. Good night to all looking for snow. Ok, I'll put away the snowblower then--not sure how many were looking for snow at this point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strongbad Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 EURO bring the center of the low almost to extreme western li before it shunts it east. Good night to all looking for snow. Your stance has been clear now for days. We can see how knowledgable you are based on your posts. Having said that, why are you so sure of yourself? The Euro is not a "nail in the coffin" for Orange County or NW Jersey. Unless you only are addressing this to the immediate coast and LI. But it sure doesn't seem that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Your stance has been clear now for days. We can see how knowledgable you are based on your posts. Having said that, why are you so sure of yourself? The Euro is not a "nail in the coffin" for Orange County or NW Jersey. Unless you only are addressing this to the immediate coast and LI. But it sure doesn't seem that way. a track like that would mess up even Orange County. They could get something at the end, but not much. When I said snow, i mean more than a slushy inch or mangled flakes. Just looking at the radar and sat images along with pressure falls, euro track seems right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Wow, just south of LI to the norrtheast of maine in 6 hours. Talk about hauling it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 a track like that would mess up even Orange County. They could get something at the end, but not much. When I said snow, i mean more than a slushy inch or mangled flakes. Just looking at the radar and sat images along with pressure falls, euro track seems right. Everyone in the SNE thread is saying its SE and good for them.. If its good for them its awesome for us here.. Just took a look at the weenie maps from wunderground.. Still shows a general 4" snowfall for my immeidate area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 a track like that would mess up even Orange County. They could get something at the end, but not much. When I said snow, i mean more than a slushy inch or mangled flakes. Just looking at the radar and sat images along with pressure falls, euro track seems right. The Euro looks slightly east of the NAM. Regardless, the track is fine. It's the thermal profile that's the problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Temperature spread across the area is extreme...mid-50s still on the island, to lower 40's in northern westchester...sitting in low 50s in northern nassau, another 15-20 degrees and we are golden! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 The Euro looks slightly east of the NAM. Regardless, the track is fine. It's the thermal profile that's the problem. NAM does not tuck the center as far west. The thermal profile is a result of the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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