CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Dude it's over. I am not going to see a flake of snow. This is wire to wire to rain 95% of SNE. The Euro isn't done coming NW yet. When I saw the GEFS have some amped solutions last nite I knew we were cooked. This is over. You would still flip to SN on the euro. I think you'll see some, unless this comes over PVD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 When euro and nam agree, so shall the weather be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Lol--I did say "several", not "most". So we've got, Dave, Weathergirl, and a few others. Dave and Weathergirl are kind of like honorary residents of GC. East of 91, disqualified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 The NAM is a very dynamic system. Someone could get TSSN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 The NAM is a very dynamic system. Someone could get TSSN. Boy the AFD's from BOX and ALY are really deflating. I think I better rely on my perceptions from my horrible map-reading to keep my spirits buoyed. Besides, Kevin tells me repeatedly don't read NWS forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Euro and its ensembles are dead on which is a tough combo to beat. Obviously there is wiggle room this far out, but I don't see a significant correction east like the SREFs have. They were pretty dead on at 12z too, I think it has room to shift a little more nw but not much. CP is obviously torched except for maybe a quick flip on the way out, unlikely to win Jerry's bet sadly. We'll have to hope for the scraper to come in this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Not sure why some stations have me getting 2-4"...kind of bold with the warm trend in the models. Still hoping for a shift east at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 It is warm out there and the cold air is expected to get here later and later now it seems. Yesterday at this time it looked like we would be falling in temps by this afternoon, now its not until tomorrow morning. The flow just never switches from persistent SWly aloft... yesterday it was progged to turn more WNWly and get the boundary to sag southeast about 12-18 hours earlier. Its going to be really hard to get cold air to move southeast... basically need to have the surface low pass us by to really advect it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 It is warm out there and the cold air is expected to get here later and later now it seems. Yesterday at this time it looked like we would be falling in temps by this afternoon, now its not until tomorrow morning. The flow just never switches from persistent SWly aloft... yesterday it was progged to turn more WNWly and get the boundary to sag southeast about 12-18 hours earlier. Its going to be really hard to get cold air to move southeast... basically need to have the surface low pass us by to really advect it in. I'm following through with your thoughts on this storm until proven wrong...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 With all I'm working very little time to really look at models but woke up early today to do so and not completely impressed. Even if it were to snow down this way I don't see myself getting more than a couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 6z nam and gfs look similar to 00z...both flip me to snow 5-6a Thursday...and I might get 1-3" after that although surface temps look warm. With the 3-6" forecasts that came out there will def. be delay/snow day talk at school...and if I have to see torching 12z runs while people talk about a snow day I'm going to be in a really bad mood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 The NAM is a very dynamic system. Someone could get TSSN. i'm guessing the euro probably is too without having looked at it too much...other than to know it's track blows for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 i'm guessing the euro probably is too without having looked at it too much...other than to know it's track blows for snow. I'm just hoping to see flakes...lol. Pretty bummed overall, but can't say we didn't see it coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I'm just hoping to see flakes...lol. Pretty bummed overall, but can't say we didn't see it coming. yeah agree. i'm hoping something gets going offshore sat PM at this point. maybe can minimally bend the ll flow NNW or something for some oes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Those expecting snow need a reality check. The Euro is wire to wire rain for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Those expecting snow need a reality check. The Euro is wire to wire rain for most This is a 180 from your normal posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 GGEM looks about what I'm expecting... SREFS say the ECM will correct eastward. Blend SREFS with ECM and its a good hit for interior SNE up into CNE. If you recall,the srefs were god awful for snowtober. Gave nne a hit up until 6h before the event. You're 99% most likely right, but ya never know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 This is a 180 from your normal posts. Dude it's over. The Euro isn't done coming NW. I won;t be shocked if only far NNE gets snow out of this. There is 0 reason to invest any emotion into this for snow. It's all rain. When Will loses it in threads you know it's over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Dude it's over. The Euro isn't done coming NW. I won;t be shocked if only far NNE gets snow out of this. There is 0 reason to invest any emotion into this for snow. It's all rain. When Will loses it in threads you know it's over Well you and him have similar climo so when he gets down on it...so do you. We didn't have too much hope this way to start with, really. I still think you'll see a brief flip unless this comes way nw again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 This system totally defined "needing it to be perfect" or "threading the needle" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 This was a pretty hostile pattern to start with which means everything has to go right. This is why a couple of days ago I was saying a whiff was the least of the problems..especially when guidance started coming close. No blocking + PV north of Hudson Bay + southern stream S/W = NW trend. I was more pessimistic for my area, but it can still apply for a good chunk of NE. Sometimes they can thread it just right...you don't know....but when we saw the big jump in the guidance from 00z yesterday to 12z yesterday...it was on. There is probably enough time for wiggle room, which would have more of an impact in sensible wx for people like Will to Pete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 This system totally defined "needing it to be perfect" or "threading the needle" Might also mean injection by needle for some people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I'm just hoping to see flakes...lol. Pretty bummed overall, but can't say we didn't see it coming. You had that fear yesterday along with a few others... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Canadian regional and NAM combo wouldn't be too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Dude it's over. The Euro isn't done coming NW. I won;t be shocked if only far NNE gets snow out of this. There is 0 reason to invest any emotion into this for snow. It's all rain. When Will loses it in threads you know it's over Big shift from your normal attitude. I still think you are in the game if the temps can cool quick enough. You have a legit chance of having the ground at least white. Even the EURO hits you with a few inches on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 You had that fear yesterday along with a few others... It was more of a concern for this area, since I was already walking the line yesterday...lol. Still time for adjustments, so we'll see what the 12z runs do. If they hold relatively steady..then we probably have our solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Canadian regional and NAM combo wouldn't be too bad. Everything but the ECM and its ensembles wouldn't be too bad for most of the interior and high terrain. Plus we gotta keep expectations in check... I think if you end up with white on your lawn after this then that "isn't too bad." If people were expecting snow banks they were setting themselves up for failure anyway in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 This was a pretty hostile pattern to start with which means everything has to go right. This is why a couple of days ago I was saying a whiff was the least of the problems..especially when guidance started coming close. No blocking + PV north of Hudson Bay + southern stream S/W = NW trend. I was more pessimistic for my area, but it can still apply for a good chunk of NE. Sometimes they can thread it just right...you don't know....but when we saw the big jump in the guidance from 00z yesterday to 12z yesterday...it was on. There is probably enough time for wiggle room, which would have more of an impact in sensible wx for people like Will to Pete. That about sums up the next few weeks more than likely. I have hope for the calendar change into 2012, but 2011 may be a dead ratter if we don't see an immediate change in the 12z runs. Can't say this wasn't telegraphed awhile ago. I mean who'd have thought we couldn't get snow when the BL is so warm it's almost 60 all night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Looks like a nice thump of rain over the next 3 days, coolish this weekend, wow does it look incredible mid to late month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 EC ens are amped up like the op. I'm probably in a brief RA to +SN scenario as of now, but these 6-12hrly jumps NW are pretty large and there's no sign of stopping yet. Apologies to snownh for getting on him about trolling SNE with a NW trend days ago....although the trolling was wrong it ended up verifying that way. That was when the s/w was modeled by everything to be flat as a board when it reached our region though. Obviously that will not be the case. Thank you dendrite, ill forgive you if you take the 5/day off for the obs of this storm...lol Love the look of the NAM for this area.. we could get killed dendrite Srefs crush CNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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