CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I think I even get dryslotted...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Hasn't this been the trend of late, it trends west a few days before the storms, and then trends back east as we get closer to the event?? I wouldn't jump off the I-84 overpass just yet! Good point. I still think this brings down enough cold air to change to heavy snow for much of NJ and southeast NY. 1-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Good point. I still think this brings down enough cold air to change to heavy snow for much of NJ and southeast NY. 1-3" I thought about that as well, but I don't think we'd see much adjustment in that direction...if at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 That's the NAM which nails you, but you probably start as rain on everything I see before flipping to SN. Elevation will be key. MODELS ARE TRENDING MORE AND MORE TOWARDS A SIGNIFICANT PCPN EVENT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHARP SHORT WAVE TROF SWINGS AROUND THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY...AND INDUCES STRONG CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AND THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO GET COLD ENOUGH FOR RAIN TO CHANCE TO SNOW ACROS THE ENTIRE REGION. RIGHT NOW IT APEARS THAT AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS IN THE HWOALY PRODUCT. A little bleary eyed still,lol From ALB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 That's the Euro map above though....NAM is still a whif west of ALB That's the NAM which nails you, but you probably start as rain on everything I see before flipping to SN. Elevation will be key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 That's the NAM which nails you, but you probably start as rain on everything I see before flipping to SN. Elevation will be key. Elevation: Check Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 EC ens are amped up like the op. I'm probably in a brief RA to +SN scenario as of now, but these 6-12hrly jumps NW are pretty large and there's no sign of stopping yet. Apologies to snownh for getting on him about trolling SNE with a NW trend days ago....although the trolling was wrong it ended up verifying that way. That was when the s/w was modeled by everything to be flat as a board when it reached our region though. Obviously that will not be the case. The EURO is out to lunch... GGEM, GFS, SREFS, even old school ETA are all much, much further SE and still hit interior SNE (ORH-TOL) hard. I mean, the SREFS don't even have one member in the past two runs that are as far NW as the ECM. Most of their members are still almost out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 GGEM looks about what I'm expecting... SREFS say the ECM will correct eastward. Blend SREFS with ECM and its a good hit for interior SNE up into CNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 SREFs are playing catch up. I don't buy that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 The EURO is out to lunch... GGEM, GFS, SREFS, even old school ETA are all much, much further SE and still hit interior SNE (ORH-TOL) hard. I mean, the SREFS don't even have one member in the past two runs that are as far NW as the ECM. Most of their members are still almost out to sea. It must be taking a break from kicking the other models azzes for a few minutes. It wouldn't surprise me if the ultimate track ticked back SE of where the Euro shows it but we're getting in fairly close now and I would think adjustments NW or SE would be fairly slight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 WBZ 4 Boston still has a decent 3-6" swath even here 5-9 further NW. Rick, MRG, S VT WCVB 5 has mangled flakes for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Ehh ..looks nice. But at this rate maybe tomorrow at this time Utica or Cooperstown will be reveling. Isn't the ECM the furthest model west? I understand we all think it is God but I've never understood why everyone just congratulated you, Rick. LOL. You don't even get measurable on the NAM/GFS/SREFS/GGEM I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Isn't the ECM the furthest model west? I understand we all think it is God but I've never understood why everyone just congratulated you, Rick. LOL. You don't even get measurable on the NAM/GFS/SREFS/GGEM I think. Euro and its ensembles are dead on which is a tough combo to beat. Obviously there is wiggle room this far out, but I don't see a significant correction east like the SREFs have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 SREFs are playing catch up. I don't buy that solution. Yeah its just interesting because as an ensemble mean there has yet to be one member on any run over the past 24 hours showing what the ECM was showing last night. I just find it hard to believe that every other peice of guidance available right now falls to the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 SREFs are playing catch up. I don't buy that solution. So, what do you think based on this latest data? My early call for mby is a general 4-7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 LOL, strong work Eric. At least he gracefully accepts his demise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 He looks so at peace with his decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I just find it hard to believe that every other peice of guidance available right now falls to the EURO. Have you not learned anything over the last 10 years here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 So, what do you think based on this latest data? My early call for mby is a general 4-7". The NAM would agree with that. Euro is less for sure. I think several inches of snow is possible for you, but a 30 mile shift is going to mean a lot for you, because you are kind of on the line. I'd feel more comfortable waiting until the 12z stuff comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Yeah its just interesting because as an ensemble mean there has yet to be one member on any run over the past 24 hours showing what the ECM was showing last night. I just find it hard to believe that every other peice of guidance available right now falls to the EURO. We've seen the Euro lead the way many times as other solutions cave to it. We're getting close to the final outcome though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Euro and its ensembles are dead on which is a tough combo to beat. Obviously there is wiggle room this far out, but I don't see a significant correction east like the SREFs have. Yeah I was thinking middle ground between the two. A compromise. The biggest problem I'm seeing this morning, even up this way, is that the cold air at H85 is a lot slower than it was 24-36 hours ago. Which means the surface is lagging even further behind that. Summits don't even go below freezing until late tonight when yesterday it appeared like it would be sometime this afternoon. That front gets sort of stuck off to the NW. The latest RUC models at the end of their runs still have the cold air a long way off to the west as of even 4z tonight. Even places that look like they'll do good on paper (ie weenie method of H85s of 0C to -3C), are still extremely warm in the lowest 3,000ft. And since we are so warm to begin with, that large QPF isn't from ridiculous UVVs from strong WAA, its just that this warmer air has higher precipital water values. Even in the QPF jackpot so to speak this still is extremely marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 From the upstate NY thread. Though I'm sure you've seen it. Never good to be the jackpot this far out though. I saw that too. It made me smile and cringe at the same time--too bad this wasn't tomorrow's 12z depiction. I thnk the one piece of solace is that even if this shifts, we'll still get a couple inches. We can either be fringed, have a fip to snow that gives something toward the end, or get clobbered. I think it will be tough not to pick up on the seasonal total. I thnk that's true for several in SNE, not just the GC folks. Now watch me get all rain on the 12z run. lol 48.2/48, foggy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 The NAM would agree with that. Euro is less for sure. I think several inches of snow is possible for you, but a 30 mile shift is going to mean a lot for you, because you are kind of on the line. I'd feel more comfortable waiting until the 12z stuff comes out. I agree. It could go either way easily. Honestly, I think the Euro will nail it and I'll have to settle for less. As long as it leaves us white here. It's bizarre to seee brown, unfrozen ground at this time of year. Ok, off to make a sacrifice to Ullr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Have you not learned anything over the last 10 years here? Ha yeah, I just am not about to throw a chance of snow into our operational forecast yet like the ECM would imply (a few inches even this far north). I would be getting a bit more excited if I was Nzucker though at 1,400ft in SW NH. And Dendrite you've been rolling pretty good so far this season, you'll end up in some 1-2"/hr band that stalls or something no matter where this tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I saw that too. It made me smile and cringe at the same time--too bad this wasn't tomorrow's 12z depiction. I thnk the one piece of solace is that even if this shifts, we'll still get a couple inches. We can either be fringed, have a fip to snow that gives something toward the end, or get clobbered. I think it will be tough not to pick up on the seasonal total. I thnk that's true for several in SNE, not just the GC folks. Now watch me get all rain on the 12z run. lol 48.2/48, foggy I agree, we should be able to tack something onto the seasonal total when all is said and done. It's nice that you are trying to be diplomatic but I'm afraid you might be creating false hope for "the others". HEY WILL!! That's a joke I just made there in case you have trouble deciphering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Well, enjoy the snow out in God's country. Tis the season of the far far interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I agree. It could go either way easily. Honestly, I think the Euro will nail it and I'll have to settle for less. As long as it leaves us white here. It's bizarre to seee brown, unfrozen ground at this time of year. Ok, off to make a sacrifice to Ullr. You'll def see accumulation, unless this totally goes way west, but I don't see it cutting over your head or anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 That was actually me, but I still don't think it does. I can't see how it will with the developing confluence crushing in from the north. I still like ORH to TOL. Dude it's over. I am not going to see a flake of snow. This is wire to wire to rain 95% of SNE. The Euro isn't done coming NW yet. When I saw the GEFS have some amped solutions last nite I knew we were cooked. This is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I agree, we should be able to tack something onto the seasonal total when all is said and done. It's nice that you are trying to be diplomatic but I'm afraid you might be creating false hope for "the others". HEY WILL!! That's a joke I just made there in case you have trouble deciphering. Lol--I did say "several", not "most". So we've got, Dave, Weathergirl, and a few others. Dave and Weathergirl are kind of like honorary residents of GC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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