ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 idk...would the pv even be in northern Hudson Bay if there was -NAO? No it wouldn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Euro is really amped up like the NAM. Very warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Congrats NY State on this run...Rick will be reveling in his silver hair when he sees it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Euro is really amped up like the NAM. Very warm. I knew that would happen...remember when Skierinvermont chastized me for being weary of the NW trend, last night.....AIT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Interior hills flip to heavy snow for a brief time, but hard to tell how much they would get..even with the 6 hour WSI graphics....we shall have to wait fro wunderground';s 3 hour graphics. But its not a good trend. Really warm and typical of this pattern....its a bad pattern because we zero margin for error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I knew that would happen...remember when Skierinvermont chastized me for being weary of the NW trend, last night.....AIT. I don't know why you would get ridiculed for worrying about a NW trend in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Interior hills flip to heavy snow for a brief time, but hard to tell how much they would get..even with the 6 hour WSI graphics....we shall have to wait fro wunderground';s 3 hour graphics. But its not a good trend. Really warm and typical of this pattern....its a bad pattern because we zero margin for error. Don't worry...according to skierinvermont, it's silly to fear the NW trend because no guidance showed a NNE hit 84 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 not really, no. if a -nao was in place that would crush the flow S, then Scott's beloved whiff term comes into play. Disagree. Stronger s/w ridging could develop downstream of the trough, while cold air is reinforced. Right now, It's technically getting a little crushed by the large vortex to the north.The s/w would be able to maintain its potency, and definitely have a little slower forward speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Don't worry...according to skierinvermont, it's silly to fear the NW trend because no guidance showed a NNE hit 84 hours out. Pattern recognition is important when making those calls...not everyone is seasoned in that department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Don't worry...according to skierinvermont, it's silly to fear the NW trend because no guidance showed a NNE hit 84 hours out. didn't he get 5-posted on eastern for awhile because he pissed so many people off in the model threads with his NW trend stuff? When he was in VT, of course lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Pattern recognition is important when making those calls...not everyone is seasoned in that department. Apparently not....though NAM and EURO maybe a bit overamped, we'll see...no matter for me. I'm out....no worries because I knew this was a long shot. Like I said, 5" or less in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Apparently not....though NAM and EURO maybe a bit overamped, we'll see...no matter for me. I'm out....no worries because I knew this was a long shot. Like I said, 5" or less in December. Sh**ty patterns usually lead to sh**ty trends. We can maybe look at the Silver maned man's 4-8" of of paste in this one...but this is exactly why I was pessimistic from the get go. Its a horrific pattern. Maybe we get lucky and it happens, but do not think for one second it was because the pattern was good. It stinks...it will be because we threaded the needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Ehh ..looks nice. But at this rate maybe tomorrow at this time Utica or Cooperstown will be reveling. Interior hills flip to heavy snow for a brief time, but hard to tell how much they would get..even with the 6 hour WSI graphics....we shall have to wait fro wunderground';s 3 hour graphics. But its not a good trend. Really warm and typical of this pattern....its a bad pattern because we zero margin for error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I'd have to imagine somewhere near Adams would be jackpot on the euro. 1.5" of qpf to the nw of the low over the Berks...very marginal at the beginning but cools off as it ramps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I'd have to imagine somewhere near Adams would be jackpot on the euro. 1.5" of qpf to the nw of the low over the Berks...very marginal at the beginning but cools off as it ramps up. Mt. Greylock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Yeah the jackpot is still far eastern NY and into the northern Berks, southern Greens. But a nice snowfall here also if that verifies. I'd have to imagine somewhere near Adams would be jackpot on the euro. 1.5" of qpf to the nw of the low over the Berks...very marginal at the beginning but cools off as it ramps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Girl 22 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 BOX said that they believe the NAM thermal profile is the best to base temps. on for this storm and that the ECM / GFS are better tracks.. Doesn't the NAM tend to be too cold sometimes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Being out of the country and missing this event gives me some perspective. This is a crappy pattern. We have one of the warmest falls on record. It is Dec 6 and we are looking at our 4th measureable snowfall in the interior. It wants to snow this winter. Once we shift colder it is going to snow a lot. It is great to be in the pattern for now because when it flips it will be awesome. And it will flip, there is a lot of cold air and snow to our north, we have decadal trend of -NAO, we have repeated high qpf events. Gonna be n awesome winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 good snowstorm is coming southern New England area . Some will will always say no dont look at every model run . Track likely be near the bench mark area . over 6 inches . Some people will always say to far west or models are changing every model run but storm will track inland but just off the coast. same area that got hit in oct will get hit again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Well as we feared...congrats NY state. What a crappy pattern coming up to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I knew it. I f'ing knew it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Congrats Rick! Take a pic Hopefully the trend ehds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Maybe by tomorrow I'll be facing all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I knew it. I f'ing knew it Hasn't this been the trend of late, it trends west a few days before the storms, and then trends back east as we get closer to the event?? I wouldn't jump off the I-84 overpass just yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 EC ens are amped up like the op. I'm probably in a brief RA to +SN scenario as of now, but these 6-12hrly jumps NW are pretty large and there's no sign of stopping yet. Apologies to snownh for getting on him about trolling SNE with a NW trend days ago....although the trolling was wrong it ended up verifying that way. That was when the s/w was modeled by everything to be flat as a board when it reached our region though. Obviously that will not be the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Thx..but premature yet... Pete still gets hit harder on the 0Z Euro... It's such a narrow band that gets heavy snow ..from just east of ALB to the central/northern Berks, southern VT...I suppose northeast into NH. Think it shows like 3-6 inches here though if it verifies. . Congrats Rick! Take a pic Hopefully the trend ehds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Thx..but premature yet... Pete still gets hit harder on the 0Z Euro... It's such a narrow band that gets heavy snow ..from just east of ALB to the central/northern Berks, southern VT...I suppose northeast into NH. Think it shows like 3-6 inches here though if it verifies. . From the upstate NY thread. Though I'm sure you've seen it. Never good to be the jackpot this far out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I knew that would happen...remember when Skierinvermont chastized me for being weary of the NW trend, last night.....AIT. That was actually me, but I still don't think it does. I can't see how it will with the developing confluence crushing in from the north. I still like ORH to TOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 From the upstate NY thread. Though I'm sure you've seen it. Never good to be the jackpot this far out though. That's the NAM which nails you, but you probably start as rain on everything I see before flipping to SN. Elevation will be key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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