dryslot Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 GFS is a scraper. Maybe 2-4" for ORH hills. Moneypitmike has qpf issues. It was better at 0z then 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 You saw good snow on 1/27 and 2/1-2 Nope...was thousands of miles away in Europe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 doesn't appear to mean much in terms of tangible wx diff b/w 18z and 00z tho...definintely warmer for eastern sections, but precip shield doesn't look to shift much Well, 18z tracked east of the BM and 0z tracked over it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 GFS is a scraper. Maybe 2-4" for ORH hills. Moneypitmike has qpf issues. But its too warm for the areas east with good qpf. Should be interesting to see what the euro does, hopefully it remains cold. Time for some sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 nothing compared to JI's problems New England is Ji's new home...didn't you get the memo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 GFS is a scraper. Maybe 2-4" for ORH hills. Moneypitmike has qpf issues. I'm estimating roughly 0.5" out there. More like 0.5" to 0.75" east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 If that s/w energy across upstate NY moves through quicker would that phase with the southern vort and help intensify/slow the system down...if that were to happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Not impressed with the GFS and NAM tonight. Not interesting to me in the least. Both models run the risk of leaving us in a situation where the u/l unravels and we're left with a patented Ray shredded POS and as Ryan said without a comma head..... It's early though, not worried about any of this until after the 12z Tuesday. This is all semi fantasy land. Wouldn't be surprised to see it run over us, or end up a sheared mess SE of the BM in later runs. Euro....take me away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Did anyone do a cross section analysis? This looks like a big 6 snow mass in a narrow strip from NW of HFD to ASH and 20 or 30 mile either side of that axis to me. Even BOS ends with a 1/4 mile vis in wet snow for a couple of hours. Relax you snow geese - the woe is me is a bit forced here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Did anyone do a cross section analysis? This looks like a big 6 snow mass in a narrow strip from NW of HFD to ASH and 20 or 30 mile either side of that axis to me. Even BOS ends with a 1/4 mile vis in wet snow for a couple of hours. Relax you snow geese - the woe is me is a bit forced here. Do you think we have to start thinking about widespread power outages in that narrow strip again? I know the leaves are gone, but It doesn't seem like this snow will be the driest snow considering the air mass that is here now. Especially if its a quick hitter like 10.29 Holy Crap... the GGEM crushes the interior with a 995 low just inside BM... Ukie is also an interior crusher again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Do you think we have to start thinking about widespread power outages in that narrow strip again? I know the leaves are gone, but It doesn't seem like this snow will be the driest snow considering the air mass that is here now. Especially if its a quick hitter like 10.29 Doubtful. There is an extenuating circumstance in that some debris still lingers precariously elevated around the infrastructure, perhaps accentuating that potential, but nothing nearly as widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Do you think we have to start thinking about widespread power outages in that narrow strip again? Are you serious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 4 to 10 inches from SE to NW across the area, higher in elevations above 1,000ft, less along and E of I-95 wow, i really know how to get people stop posting and leave a thread lol. just show up - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 4 to 10 inches from SE to NW across the area, higher in elevations above 1,000ft, less along and E of I-95 wow, i really know how to get people stop posting and leave a thread lol. just show up - In Tip we trust. Nice call. Sticking to your guns, while so many others flip flop more than Mitt. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 00z GEFS mean is pretty far NW of the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 00z GEFS mean is pretty far NW of the op. Def a red flag....this is coming NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Def a red flag....this is coming NW. Well then...I'm cooked. GL to you guys in God's country. Maybe we'll squeak out a decent pattern in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 00z GEFS mean is pretty far NW of the op. Yeah saw that. .25" gets into NE VT by h60...probably resolution at that point, but there's definitely some amped members in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Def a red flag....this is coming NW. It can only come so far though... I'm not worried about a track being too close - we've had better turn out from closer passes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Ens are very warm too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 It can only come so far though... I'm not worried about a track being too close - we've had better turn out from closer passes! Well yeah, the PV will prevent it from coming through BGM or ALB...but we don't need it that far west to give us ptype troubles. But I agree there is a limit,. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Well yeah, the PV will prevent it from coming through BGM or ALB...but we don't need it that far west to give us ptype troubles. But I agree there is a limit,. What are the western and eastern limits of the track of the storm with respect to the polar vortex? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 What are the western and eastern limits of the track of the storm with respect to the polar vortex? I suspect the track is within 50 miles of verification in the models - figuring the GFS comes bit NW and the NAM is either on, or settles slightly; what we're getting at is if the cold will be deep enough, if not, will dynamics be sufficient. Real real close call here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I suspect the track is within 50 miles of verification in the models; what we're getting at is if the cold will be deep enough, if not, will dynamics be sufficient. Real real close call here! Yeah, thanks. God luck to you down there. You deserve it after these 60*+ days!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Problem is that it's coming NW because the lead s/w is tracking further NE. So some areas don't even get into the cold air first. The warm air isn't from WAA ahead of the storm, it's from the previous airmass. Someone will get a decent snowfall, but it will be in a narrow stripe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Problem is that it's coming NW because the lead s/w is tracking further NE. So some areas don't even get into the cold air first. The warm air isn't from WAA ahead of the storm, it's from the previous airmass. Someone will get a decent snowfall, but it will be in a narrow stripe This has always been the huge issue with this storm. This is what we have to deal with in a threat during a garbage pattern...have to hope for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 This has always been the huge issue with this storm. This is what we have to deal with in a threat during a garbage pattern...have to hope for the best. This actually could have been a significant storm (large area of 6-12") if we had a -NAO in place. Dang. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 This actually could have been a significant storm (large area of 6-12") if we had a -NAO in place. Dang. haha Yes blocking would probably make this a legit MECS threat with even an outside shot at a HECS...but instead we are hoping for a quick hitter that dumps 3-6" and maybe some spots getting more if lucky. But still a lot of issues in this ugly pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 This actually could have been a significant storm (large area of 6-12") if we had a -NAO in place. Dang. haha not really, no. if a -nao was in place that would crush the flow S, then Scott's beloved whiff term comes into play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 not really, no. if a -nao was in place that would crush the flow S, then Scott's beloved whiff term comes into play. idk...would the pv even be in northern Hudson Bay if there was -NAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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