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Thursday Wintry Threat II


Baroclinic Zone

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coating Will

0" Ray

0" Kevin

I'd be fairly surprised if it was that bad....I expect more than a coating here. Ray will probably get measurable too. Same with Kevin.

But its going to be close...its a fine line between 2" and not much at all.

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HRRR did a great job with getting the wind gusts into JFK on time. It continues to advance that area of wind east, and expands to include 50+ kt gusts by the time it reaches the Cape and Islands around 09z.

There's your stinger...

05z HRRR actually smokes BOS for a time with heavy snow. They get like an inch or two.

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I'd be fairly surprised if it was that bad....I expect more than a coating here. Ray will probably get measurable too. Same with Kevin.

But its going to be close...its a fine line between 2" and not much at all.

Had stuck with the 1/2 - 1" for you and kev, coating/slush for weatherfella and Ray.

Euro clown maps are less interesting than the 12z which is interesting to me. I know they're clown maps but they'd have most of western MA in 2-4" by 1am...and then sweep that over you in a few hours and probably win the bet for Jerry. Doesn't quite seem to be playing out that way.

Feel like I should go higher for you and Kev towards .75 to 1.5 or maybe even 1-2 but who knows...let it ride, if it rips it rips.

I think jerry has a better than 50/50 shot of winning the bet tonight.

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Had stuck with the 1/2 - 1" for you and kev, coating/slush for weatherfella and Ray.

Euro clown maps are less interesting than the 12z which is interesting to me. I know they're clown maps but they'd have most of western MA in 2-4" by 1am...and then sweep that over you in a few hours and probably win the bet for Jerry. Doesn't quite seem to be playing out that way.

Feel like I should go higher for you and Kev towards .75 to 1.5 or maybe even 1-2 but who knows...let it ride, if it rips it rips.

I think jerry has a better than 50/50 shot of winning the bet tonight.

What is the bet...measurable at BOS before 1/1?

I think BOS is 40/60 for measurable tonight. I still favor no, but its going to be close. They could easily rip out 1.5" if it goes right, but also could in more scenarios get a trace of 34F wet snow.

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