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Thursday Wintry Threat II


Baroclinic Zone

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06Z SmartCast still showing Rutland and Montepelier, VT with the highest accumulation possibilities. Through 16Z looking at max of 7.3" of snow accumulations with the heaviest snow from now until 09Z, with rates of around 1.4" per hour. Other areas of interest are Worchester, Albany, and Caribou, with potential for around 5" of accumulating snows. Pushed out all the data for NY/VT cities http://smartwxmodel.net

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Yeah I think the guidance points to the area..esp out by you and Ray of getting into a period of strong lift..just a question of how long. It does look a little better on the models, so that's good I suppose, and better for this area too. If the meso models are right, it could be a 40-50 mile wide band of strong returns in a few hours, crossing the area.

I'm gonna hit the hay and see what happens in a few hours. Probably NBD here, but maybe you guys will be having a little fun.

I'd like to see the precip echoes in NJ light up more...but we probably need to wait for that vortmax to hit the bathwater S of LI to really get better reaction. If it plays out well...the echoes will be intensifying almost overhead around 2-4am.

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Those winds at JFK might spell interesting times for the Cape in about 5 hours or so.

I'm really interested to see how the radar responds in the next 2-3 hours. If guidance is right, it should really go nuts over interior SNE by about 2-3am...everything should look like its getting enhanced by ML fronto.

rad8.gif

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I'm really interested to see how the radar responds in the next 2-3 hours. If guidance is right, it should really go nuts over interior SNE by about 2-3am...everything should look like its getting enhanced by ML fronto.

rad8.gif

Is this a situation where it's too late for western areas and eastern/northern areas may actually jackpot?

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I'm really interested to see how the radar responds in the next 2-3 hours. If guidance is right, it should really go nuts over interior SNE by about 2-3am...everything should look like its getting enhanced by ML fronto.

I'm wondering if parts of north-central MA might have a shot at TSSN as the dryslot starts to work northward

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Is this a situation where it's too late for western areas and eastern/northern areas may actually jackpot?

No western areas should do fine...they flip first...but some of the guidance does show the most intense lift over eastern areas after the flip...as everything moves NE the lift intensifies....but I'm not sure that will actually play out.

We'll just have to see. Its the way that someone like Ray could get 2.5" of snow while I get a similar amount despite longitude and elevation advantage....the lift goes apesh** over NE MA as the systems exits stage right....we just don't know if it will play out like that yet. The stuff over NJ is getting better looking E of PHL...that's going to be our show if we get one.

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I'm wondering if parts of north-central MA might have a shot at TSSN as the dryslot starts to work northward

Def possible...the lift might be intense enough. I usually like to see a MAUL on the sounding, but it doesn't always have to be there. If you get 50 microbars per seconds, there's always a shot.

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Moneypitmike's station is nose diving right now. Down to 37 from like 40 an hour ago. I actually was hoping to see it a little lower by now. The snow line needs to get over the Berkshires crest easily in the next hour or this won't be that good.

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