Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Thursday Wintry Threat II


Baroclinic Zone

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.9k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Been watching the temp drop in your area. Down to 36.9 on Mt. Weetamoo. You guys shoudl flip within the next hour or so.

http://www.weatherli...tation=weetamoo

We'll see. Plymouth is infamous for holding onto rain for as long as possible lol. If we flip by 2am, we can definitely get some good accumulations by morning.

NWS point says 5-10" here :lmao:

I'm saying 4" ... which might be high. Best shot surrounding areas, closer to 6" maybe

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I could see that area in ern PA giving us some fun later. It looks like it's getting its act together there. Vortmax can be seen moving off the Delmarva on radar.

I do like seeing the RUC crashing temps throughout the column. Despite the best lift moving out around 10z, the DGZ gets deeper. So what we lack in omega we might make up for in better ratios due to snow growth for that tail end.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We'll see. Plymouth is infamous for holding onto rain for as long as possible lol. If we flip by 2am, we can definitely get some good accumulations by morning.

NWS point says 5-10" here lmaosmiley.gif

I'm saying 4" ... which might be high. Best shot surrounding areas, closer to 6" maybe

Yeah, the P/C's are all f'd up. I see valley areas with 4-8 and elevated areas with rain.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I could see that area in ern PA giving us some fun later. It looks like it's getting its act together there. Vortmax can be seen moving off the Delmarva on radar.

Just was in the philly obs thread seems its changing over across almost all of eastern pa, mixing in the HV over to the ct border now, pretty early?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I wish the dam SPC WRF was up and running.

The waiting game for this is going to get annoying in another hour or two.

Though it does look like the snow line is progressing slightly ahead of schedule in the Berkshires which is a good thing. I'm worried mostly about how heavy the precip will be in the final couple hours. Models want us to get destroyed with high rates at the end, but I'm always wary of seeing the better lift translate northeastward more than models show....the only good thing I think is that they are not trending that way....they are trending more toward tugging everything southwest as the vortmax holds together better.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The waiting game for this is going to get annoying in another hour or two.

Though it does look like the snow line is progressing slightly ahead of schedule in the Berkshires which is a good thing. I'm worried mostly about how heavy the precip will be in the final couple hours. Models want us to get destroyed with high rates at the end, but I'm always wary of seeing the better lift translate northeastward more than models show....the only good thing I think is that they are not trending that way....they are trending more toward tugging everything southwest as the vortmax holds together better.

RUC is really trying to get you and Ray in the game, but I know what you mean about the ne trend in lift.

I hope it's more of a concentrated area of mdt or greater DBZs. That's what is going to help cool the column because it will indicate widespread deep layer lift. Having an area that is more convective looking, meaning widespread 15 DBZs and bands of 30DBZ or so embedded in it won't cut it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

RUC is really trying to get you and Ray in the game, but I know what you mean about the ne trend in lift.

I hope it's more of a concentrated area of mdt or greater DBZs. That's what is going to help cool the column because it will indicate widespread deep layer lift. Having an area that is more convective looking, meaning widespread 15 DBZs and bands of 30DBZ or so embedded in it won't cut it.

The guidance tonight has very impressive lift in that final couple hours. The NAM had like 50-60 microbars per second before it exited stage right.

I'm still wary, but at least its trending better. If we don't get the good lift, then I could see a 2 hour period of 34F -SN that barely accumulates.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As soon as I stopped hearing pouring buckets I looked outside to find a white car and garbage pail. Half an hour later there's almost an inch on everything, even driveway and roads... and it was near 50 today. I dunno how long it'll rip for (I'm hoping I can pull off three or four soild hours), but when it does start for you guys, you won't even remember it rained for three days.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Becket has a bit longitude on them though...the way its setup right now it could have been snow there before Peru even though they might have some elevation on them. But you are probably right that it is snowing in Peru right now. You normally wouldn't see that type of temp drop unless the melting of the snowflakes was helping out.

well that's pretty interesting.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The guidance tonight has very impressive lift in that final couple hours. The NAM had like 50-60 microbars per second before it exited stage right.

I'm still wary, but at least its trending better. If we don't get the good lift, then I could see a 2 hour period of 34F -SN that barely accumulates.

Yeah I think the guidance points to the area..esp out by you and Ray of getting into a period of strong lift..just a question of how long. It does look a little better on the models, so that's good I suppose, and better for this area too. If the meso models are right, it could be a 40-50 mile wide band of strong returns in a few hours, crossing the area.

I'm gonna hit the hay and see what happens in a few hours. Probably NBD here, but maybe you guys will be having a little fun.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...