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Thursday Wintry Threat II


Baroclinic Zone

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We won't really know whether we get a half inch or 4" until probably sometime around 06z. I think we'll start to see where the snow line is and how fast its moving relative to the intense lift.

If Pete and MPM are ripping snow by 06z and Socks shortly after, then we are probably in pretty good shape.

I hope I'm not here to report the changeover. I'm going to head to bed and get up in a few hours to hopefully find it ripping snow. If it hasn't changed over when I next post in the obs thread, I will be in foul mood!

Good luck everyone.

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Yeah I'll be fine. I like these strong systems, and it will come sooner or later. Not a big deal, although it will be nice to see some dendrites again. I probably spend to much time here, but I enjoy discussing and talking weather...especially with the many knowledgeable mets and hobbyists.

Hopefully you can really root on my chance for 3" of snow tonight.

Lol, j/k. It will actually probabl;y be a bit more painful for me than you if I get shafted with less than an inch since there was realistic hope here for more. Hopefully the end of this system produces...I really do not know what to expect. I have 1-3" for N ORH county and hoping for the best but I realize that it could be less than 1" or as much as 4-5".

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Oh the humanity if you don't get WSW snow.

I was thinking that post will get some comment... lol. I agree though I'm just covering the grass and if it stopped snowing right now I couldn't care less. Just having some white around for this cold shot this weekend will make it better than dead grass and cold. Anyone with a white yard (be it a half inch or 7") should consider themselves very lucky in this pattern.

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Just ran my 04Z SmartCast, seeing Rutland and Montpelier, VT with the heaviest snow potential through 15Z. Seeing general additional snow accumulation around 7-10" with 05-09Z with the heaviest snow rates of 2.1" per hour during this time frame especially across the Rutland areas. Areas around Albany and Scranton will see additional 5-7" through 15Z.

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Hopefully you can really root on my chance for 3" of snow tonight.

Lol, j/k. It will actually probabl;y be a bit more painful for me than you if I get shafted with less than an inch since there was realistic hope here for more. Hopefully the end of this system produces...I really do not know what to expect. I have 1-3" for N ORH county and hoping for the best but I realize that it could be less than 1" or as much as 4-5".

What's funny is there is a very good chance I snow for like 6-7 hours and end up with 3" of 8:1 ratio wet snow, and you snow for like 60-90 minutes and get the same amount. This will be exciting to watch down there in SNE as this comma head develops.

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Mangled flakes now beginning to mix in with the rain here. Didn't think it would get here quite this fast. 36.1°.

Congrats, Mitch. Fun times for you.

Are there any reports from the Marlboro (VT) or Heath/Colrain areas? I just got the night wood supply and it really seemed to have flakes in with the rain. Maybe just gloppy flakes. The light sucks so I can't really tell. Unless there are reports from those highly populated nearby towns, I'll assume it's my weenie imagination.

I'm out.

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And you deserve a jackpot, too man. You always post during these storms that are hitting eastern NY, or SNE, or ME/NH/VT or whatever. I never hear you posting about your backyard though or when models look really good up your way. Its like you only come out when south of you is getting hit.

i havent been in a jackpot in ages lol, not since 07-08. thats just the way it goes.

i nickel and dime though. and come december, its virtually a lock to have snowcover 90% of the time through march at minimum. this year is obvsiously different, one of those 10% maybe? and i'm a snowcover/snowdepth guy anyways.

but even today, we had weenie flakes in the air for most of the afternoon. it didnt accumulate given the temps and intensity, but come december, its weenie flakes even in a crap pattern.

so i cant complain too much, when i see people thirsting for flakes like they do in the MA. i sometimes wonder what that would be like? i cant imagine it, like literally cannot imagine cant picture it does not compute.

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What's funny is there is a very good chance I snow for like 6-7 hours and end up with 3" of 8:1 ratio wet snow, and you snow for like 60-90 minutes and get the same amount. This will be exciting to watch down there in SNE as this comma head develops.

Yeah big question mark here...but its definitely possible it absolutely rips for 2-3 hours here or at least somewhere near here. We just won't know for another couple hours.

The lift in the delmarva region looks pretty impressive and that has to be at least 7 hours away, so that does give slightly more confidence that we will have good stuff here in the 08z-11z time frame.

But sometimes it can fall apart quickly too...we'll just have to see.

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I was thinking that post will get some comment... lol. I agree though I'm just covering the grass and if it stopped snowing right now I couldn't care less. Just having some white around for this cold shot this weekend will make it better than dead grass and cold. Anyone with a white yard (be it a half inch or 7") should consider themselves very lucky in this pattern.

agreed my parents in ottawa have an inch on the ground, they sent some pics, its amazing the difference just that small amount compared to cement and brown grass here.

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RUC looking better and better slp has moved se nearly 50 miles over the last few runs, backside snows continue to improve, im feeling it for mass and nw ct right now

Its showing a pretty good stinger on that tail for Ray's area too.

Looks like near 3am is when it flips here...

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And you deserve a jackpot, too man. You always post during these storms that are hitting eastern NY, or SNE, or ME/NH/VT or whatever. I never hear you posting about your backyard though or when models look really good up your way. Its like you only come out when south of you is getting hit.

Here is a hint...it's like anyone only posts when south of him is getting hit because they do.

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MM5 FTW?, if so you get some tail whip

Happy to see a mangled, but not expecting it.....totally stoked for everyone else, and if you love weather you gotta love this little dyno delight, I live for this type stuff going into all the obs thread trying to keep up is almost impossible.

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With a 993 with north winds at Ambrose Light, 992 with South winds South of Islip buoy, The LP is south of LI bombing with best pressure falls Due East, Wills tuck underway?

Certainly looks headed more for the outer Cape to me. Natural pressure weakness for it to follow right along the south coast.

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