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Thursday Wintry Threat II


Baroclinic Zone

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No. I've reached the same point with Messenger that ORH did last year. I forget what the dust up was about exactly but Will had an issue with him as well. Glad the HRRR is showing some love.

I can't argue with you when everyone that's chimed in on skiing tonight tells you you're wrong and you still want to single me out. Not by actually talking about how the conditions can possibly be perceived as good today and how you were wrong back in November with the thought that it would be good skiing now, but by making things up and talking about me saying the season is over etc. All a bunch of crap and you know it.

I think they'll be making a ton of snow in the next week and then will have to see if another torch comes or not before a more persistent pattern change occurs in January. None of that has changed in 3 weeks on my end, but you want to keep paraphrasing and distorting what's said. I get it, you've been skiing for 40 years and know every mountain and trail better than anyone here.

I think this is why they invented the ignore button and we should leave it at that. Enjoy all the snow tonight.

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I think what we may see is a semi dryslot move into the region..perhaps close to Kevin and Will in a few hours. But the leading edge of the heavy precip marking the good frontogenesis will move east slowly. You can see this happening here.

post-33-0-88937300-1323311061.gif

It's possible it may not be a dryslot per se, but more low level lift and moderate precip from overrunning. Anyways as the low really develops near BID, we should see start seeing a little comma head or tail form near NJ and moving ne. This will be the feature that gets area later on, but western and nw areas will be in the better banding in frontogenesis for a longer period. That feature associated with the low will pivot into SNE, after 06z. I really think some will pull TSSN out of this, and maybe thunder near the Cape and se towards ACK.

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honestly i wouldn't worry about your temp right now. this won't be a slow drop...this will be steady, steady, steady......plunge.

Lots of bright banding. NAM seems to want to flip me over by midnight instead of around 1 AM.

37.8° +RA

Thanks.

Get the feeling very strongly that surprises are in order for you and others to your North. Impressive bombing and most impressive UVVs. IDK Will could be a 4-6 paste. I also think MM5 type track with some wraparound gets WCT WMASS . This is starting to become similar to the heavy rain to insta paste storms of old.

You could get warned talking dirty like that, Steve. :)

One thing that appears to have been modeled well is the heavy qpf. It's been teaming much of the evening with 1.22" so far--the vast majority that has come down since I got home at 3:30p.m. Meanwhile, lower 30's are suddenly appearing just east of the CD. It's a-coming, just a matter of when.

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since it's been tossed around already...did someone say 1am changeover for Wachusett Mtn, and surrounding elevated area?

I'd prob go closer to 2am for Wawa...but the snow line will be accelerating eastward after midnight so it could surprise a bit.

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Wet snow flakes already starting to mix in here. Temperature down to 37.4 on a wind switch from NE to NW gusting over 20 mph

Tstorms all over nyc metro and this behind that line..............going to be a wild ride tonight for sure, little bit of everything just like the old days.

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Reports of snow mixing in around ALB according to some obs in the other subforum. Seems to be a bit ahead of schedule. Could bode well for the Berks/Taconics if we can get this snow changeover to collapse a bit faster to the E.

If the vortmax tries to tear a hole in the atmosphere to the south of LI...it could tug the snow line SE while at the same time warm up the mid-levels ahead of it in SE MA...basically tightening the gradient. So I think that is our hope.

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He gets a stinger for an hour or two.,,,and not what he normally gets.

Here comes the snow collapsing south in the last frame! I think there will be many surprises in this.

http://www.intellica...20&animate=true

Can see the bright banding clear as day approaching Albany http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=ENX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

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If the vortmax tries to tear a hole in the atmosphere to the south of LI...it could tug the snow line SE while at the same time warm up the mid-levels ahead of it in SE MA...basically tightening the gradient. So I think that is our hope.

It will be interesting to see what happens. I could see something where Dave gets into a period of heavy snow and 20-30 miles to the se..it may be a little too removed from the good stuff until last minute. At least something like that...just giving a hypothetical situation. Still think it may be tough for you and esp Kevin, but who knows. Hopefully you squeeze an inch....or better.

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