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Thursday Wintry Threat II


Baroclinic Zone

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Dude he has the ultimate job, skis for a living, forecasts and takes obs, reads snow depths etc. am I jealous oh hell fookin yea.

Yeah, sounds like a snow and skiiing weenie's wet dream. Being paid to ski around and take snow measurements. That's like being paid to take out an awesome boat and weigh huge bass on your favorite lake. LOL

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Hasn't been as warm there as in New England. We have the biggest departures in the USA for the fall and early winter.

I don't care what Pete says about ski season and the October snow, it's been downright bleak here. Low of 51F last night at 1200' in SW NH, heavy rainstorm with a coastal low, jogging and tennis in shorts...this is the worst season we've had since December 2006 in Vermont. What's particularly insulting was that everyone was expecting a big winter with a -NAO, especially given our history in weak Niñas, and it has felt like a Gulf Coast fall lately. We're +10 for December after finishing November +6.2, and it's pouring rain out when it's supposed to be bitter cold and snow like December 2008. Toaster time.

its been terrible

enjoy the rain, its the only rain ya got.

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I think this whole system being tilted a bit more longitude-wise is going to cost most of us. It will help N VT down to E NY but hurt interior SNE....we should still see a flip at the end and it could rip for an hour or two....but unfortunately it looks like we wont get it for 4 or 5 hours which could have cashed in pretty good on the rates.

Will's first post in here for many hours (I think), and he quickly let's the air out of the balloon leaving many weenies to meander aimlessly in the rain wondering why the ground's not white. A sad day for many in SNE.

Chin up, folks. It's only December 7--we will have many other events to track with hopefully whiter endings.

39.7/39

BTW--which model gets the "weenie award" for closest to nailing this thing?

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While we wait the changeover out....

Thanks for the honesty and the information. If I'm up at Stowe this winter I'll drop in and say hello. It's on the list for a weekend but we're debating pooling the money and going out west depending on how things look later in December.

Yeah anyone on here should drop a line if they are up here... we'll grab Tim Kelly who has a place up at the mountain and go ski some runs and talk weather. I still remember that WINDEX event last year sitting in the gondola with Tim and Weir Lundsted (author of windex paper) looking at radar and model data on Iphones. That was a highlight I'll never forget, skiing with the guy who developed the WINDEX parameters during one of those events.

And as far as honesty, it is what it is. I'm in marketing and operations technically, but my heart is in operations, not fantasy marketing land, lol. I love coming in at 5am and being the first one in the office, getting on the radio with the groomers and snowmakers to talk weather, wind, snowfall, snow depths, etc and then pouring over data about how weather will effect our day, checking and maintaning weather stations and snow study plots. It is what it is right now, but as I was talking with the NWS the other day, we don't even have snow to get to our 3,000ft measuring clearing to get GPS coordinates for hydrology reports.

Hopefully this storm works out up here, but the ski and recreation business is going to take a big hit this holiday season... no way around it at this point unless we can pick up 3-4 feet between then and now.

On topic part of the post: Its now 33 with -SN. No accums and not even close to any yet. Very wet ground.

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WTF are you talking about?

One of your comments in the skiing is great post which given the position in the sentence I assume referred to me saying 3-4" was a good bottom end of the range...aka the doomsayers that don't predict you'll get 2 feet of snow with every event to beat everyone else in SNE.

I think this whole system being tilted a bit more longitude-wise is going to cost most of us. It will help N VT down to E NY but hurt interior SNE....we should still see a flip at the end and it could rip for an hour or two....but unfortunately it looks like we wont get it for 4 or 5 hours which could have cashed in pretty good on the rates.

I'm thinking western MA even has a hard time potentially flipping until after 1130 or later. It's really going to cut into the totals.

Latest RUC has strong LP sitting on the tarmac at JFK around 2 am, has never waivered on track, but has been getting stronger with backside precip improving marginally.

Compared to the 18z it's cooled a bit, but it's still insisting that 1000-8h ct's don't crash low enough until midnight or beyond in most of SNE. Verbatim it doesn't turn anyone over in SNE until after about 1 or 2am. Usually these main hour runs aren't that much different from the NAM..and usually even the NAM isn't bad for 3-6 hours out.

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Hey Pete, so do I if you've ever looked at most of the pics I post. The only problem is there aren't even bad conditions to be had, lol. I hike Mansfield in late May to ski 10 turns on a drift somewhere... don't think I'm trying to sell this short. Its just that 90% of the mountain is dirt right now... and tomorrow it'll be a few inches of snow on mud (the ground isn't even frozen, not even close) which I'll ski and like it.

I just don't want you to think its really good because you like the gnarly stuff... I do too, its just not even an option right now. Trust me, I love skiing and am quite proficient at it in all conditions from skiing every day all winter long (150 days or so per season)... I'm just telling it like it is right now. Today was my 15th straight day skiing and I probably wont miss a day until at least Christmas when I might take one day off from the slopes. However, let me tell you that 15 days in a row of many hours per day on the same couple runs is getting old. Its not like you can even poach or go into the backcountry or even try something else because then its called hiking in the mud, not skiing. Bleak.

I know exactly what conditions are all over New England. Having been a ski reporter a couple decades I have many friends at many resorts.My e-mail is stuffed every night with notes from them. It's a tough start for sure but not unprecedented. With the more favorable conditions coming in things will improve quickly, you know that. What I object to is the constant complaining about conditions from people that ski a few times a year or not at all. I'm sure you're sick of making GS turns down the same few trails but would you rather hang up the skis and wait for the Primo powder day that may be in the distant future? I'll take the dirty ribbon of mm snow over nothing. I'll be at K-Mart this weekend, and it'll be a blast even if the terrain is limited. I'm not going to p*ss and moan about crappy conditions. I'm going to grin and bear it like any seasoned Eastern skier does. I've noticed in my years of skiing that many people look for excuses not to make the effort to ski. I've even heard people complain "there's too much snow."lol I think that Messenger should really just plan a southern vacation and give up on this season entirely. It's obvious here on 12/7 that the season is a total loss.

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Yes. They pay me to ski, its actually in the job description to ski a variety of trails and terrain each day. I do the snow report, photos, videos, social media, etc and I'm based out of the Mountain Operations Center at the resort. I help plan the grooming and snowmaking needs as well as weather forecasts for all operations. This season I'm also doing hydro analysis for NWS BTV office and snowpack assessments, so that should be cool. I spend 40 hours a week at the resort and then ski on my days off, too.

This goes hand in hand with what I did and am doing again at Stowe through UVM and LSC :)

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I know exactly what conditions are all over New England. Having been a ski reporter a couple decades I have many friends at many resorts.My e-mail is stuffed every night with notes from them. It's a tough start for sure but not unprecedented. With the more favorable conditions coming in things will improve quickly, you know that. What I object to is the constant complaining about conditions from people that ski a few times a year or not at all. I'm sure you're sick of making GS turns down the same few trails but would you rather hang up the skis and wait for the Primo powder day that may be in the distant future? I'll take the dirty ribbon of mm snow over nothing. I'll be at K-Mart this weekend, and it'll be a blast even if the terrain is limited. I'm not going to p*ss and moan about crappy conditions. I'm going to grin and bear it like any seasoned Eastern skier does. I've noticed in my years of skiing that many people look for excuses not to make the effort to ski. I've even heard people complain "there's too much snow."lol I think that Messenger should really just plan a southern vacation and give up on this season entirely. It's obvious here on 12/7 that the season is a total loss.

Looks more favorable for sure:

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Yeah anyone on here should drop a line if they are up here... we'll grab Tim Kelly who has a place up at the mountain and go ski some runs and talk weather. I still remember that WINDEX event last year sitting in the gondola with Tim and Weir Lundsted (author of windex paper) looking at radar and model data on Iphones. That was a highlight I'll never forget, skiing with the guy who developed the WINDEX parameters during one of those events.

And as far as honesty, it is what it is. I'm in marketing and operations technically, but my heart is in operations, not fantasy marketing land, lol. I love coming in at 5am and being the first one in the office, getting on the radio with the groomers and snowmakers to talk weather, wind, snowfall, snow depths, etc and then pouring over data about how weather will effect our day, checking and maintaning weather stations and snow study plots. It is what it is right now, but as I was talking with the NWS the other day, we don't even have snow to get to our 3,000ft measuring clearing to get GPS coordinates for hydrology reports.

Hopefully this storm works out up here, but the ski and recreation business is going to take a big hit this holiday season... no way around it at this point unless we can pick up 3-4 feet between then and now.

On topic part of the post: Its now 33 with -SN. No accums and not even close to any yet. Very wet ground.

Good luck with the upcoming weeks' business, and congrats to now having snow, even if it's not sticking yet.

No economic impact here of course, but we identified a new sledding hill to try out back that I hope to try out with my daughter this weekend (she just told me she wants a "snow party" at midnight tonight). Not as long as the one in our main field, but I think we might have a 'softer' finish on this one. On the other, you had to bail before you hit the woods. Here, I think you might slow down before hitting the old farm wall. But maybe not. :)

But, these temps are weenie nightmares.

39.7/39

Either way

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I know exactly what conditions are all over New England. Having been a ski reporter a couple decades I have many friends at many resorts.My e-mail is stuffed every night with notes from them. It's a tough start for sure but not unprecedented. With the more favorable conditions coming in things will improve quickly, you know that. What I object to is the constant complaining about conditions from people that ski a few times a year or not at all. I'm sure you're sick of making GS turns down the same few trails but would you rather hang up the skis and wait for the Primo powder day that may be in the distant future? I'll take the dirty ribbon of mm snow over nothing. I'll be at K-Mart this weekend, and it'll be a blast even if the terrain is limited. I'm not going to p*ss and moan about crappy conditions. I'm going to grin and bear it like any seasoned Eastern skier does. I've noticed in my years of skiing that many people look for excuses not to make the effort to ski. I've even heard people complain "there's too much snow."lol I think that Messenger should really just plan a southern vacation and give up on this season entirely. It's obvious here on 12/7 that the season is a total loss.

Gods gift to skiing and the official spokesperson for all things skiing. We will appoint you moderator of the ski threads and you can weed out anything you don't see fit okay?

In about 4 days two people that have never had a meltdown are having one and you're the center point of both.

we get it Pete, you're the best most experienced skier out there and we are all your underlings.

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Yes it does...that rips us for about 3-4 hours...but I think its wrong. I think more like an hour of snow at the end for here, but I hope it goes closer to 3...

I thought maybe 1-2"...maybe 2" earlier for you guys (Kevin too), but I told him that you guys may struggle for an inch..esp him. It's close, but the tilt and the fact that it's hauling arse sucks.

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One of your comments in the skiing is great post which given the position in the sentence I assume referred to me saying 3-4" was a good bottom end of the range...aka the doomsayers that don't predict you'll get 2 feet of snow with every event to beat everyone else in SNE.

Ummm no. I had no idea what you were calling for here, I was speaking more about the fact that regardless of the storm you always have a negative spin. I'm not the first to tell you this as last winter and the one before that other posters lost it with you. I know , I read their posts. Enjoy your Winter down there on the Cape. I'll enjoy mine up here in the high terrain on the opposite end of the state.

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Will's first post in here for many hours (I think), and he quickly let's the air out of the balloon leaving many weenies to meander aimlessly in the rain wondering why the ground's not white. A sad day for many in SNE.

Chin up, folks. It's only December 7--we will have many other events to track with hopefully whiter endings.

39.7/39

BTW--which model gets the "weenie award" for closest to nailing this thing?

Well you'll probably see a few inches, but it's more dire further east.

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Yes. They pay me to ski, its actually in the job description to ski a variety of trails and terrain each day. I do the snow report, photos, videos, social media, etc and I'm based out of the Mountain Operations Center at the resort. I help plan the grooming and snowmaking needs as well as weather forecasts for all operations. This season I'm also doing hydro analysis for NWS BTV office and snowpack assessments, so that should be cool. I spend 40 hours a week at the resort and then ski on my days off, too.

What a Sh it job...........lol

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Yeah anyone on here should drop a line if they are up here... we'll grab Tim Kelly who has a place up at the mountain and go ski some runs and talk weather. I still remember that WINDEX event last year sitting in the gondola with Tim and Weir Lundsted (author of windex paper) looking at radar and model data on Iphones. That was a highlight I'll never forget, skiing with the guy who developed the WINDEX parameters during one of those events.

And as far as honesty, it is what it is. I'm in marketing and operations technically, but my heart is in operations, not fantasy marketing land, lol. I love coming in at 5am and being the first one in the office, getting on the radio with the groomers and snowmakers to talk weather, wind, snowfall, snow depths, etc and then pouring over data about how weather will effect our day, checking and maintaning weather stations and snow study plots. It is what it is right now, but as I was talking with the NWS the other day, we don't even have snow to get to our 3,000ft measuring clearing to get GPS coordinates for hydrology reports.

Hopefully this storm works out up here, but the ski and recreation business is going to take a big hit this holiday season... no way around it at this point unless we can pick up 3-4 feet between then and now.

On topic part of the post: Its now 33 with -SN. No accums and not even close to any yet. Very wet ground.

Cool!

Looks like an extended period of ski friendly weather coming up your way. It'd be nice to see you guys and either way looking forward to checking out the resort for 3 or 4 days later in the season.

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