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Thursday Wintry Threat II


Baroclinic Zone

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Yup--that's the Eastern Hampshire county zone. Probalby should drop them in green just so they don't stick out. smile.png

Let's just add .6" to that and call it an even 5".

I might even be too generous, but he is at 1400ft, and it would only take a good 45-60 min of overachieving to boost totals.

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It will probably become more vertical as the low approaches us and bombs out. This is why it may take a good while for us to turn over.

Tremendous mid-level forcing over us right now. If this antecedent airmass were even seasonally cold...

According to Mesoanalysis 850 is pretty far north of you, hope it collapses soon.
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I might even be too generous, but he is at 1400ft, and it would only take a good 45-60 min of overachieving to boost totals.

Nice to see the mid atlantic thread and pa threads this evening, you can tell the joy in the posts, they deserve the snow down there even into Virginia its been so warm, hard to imagine yet another snow even to our sw while the berkshires poor rain till at least the wee hours............that trough axis has sucked all season.

Congrats to our southern neighbors!

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Haha I'm not going to lie, Pete, its still pretty bleak for skiing. Sugarbush, Okemo, Stratton, etc aren't even top-to-bottom (ie, not even man-made snow below 2,500ft), Jay Peak was closed Mon-Wed this week, at Stowe we are barely holding it together on the bottom half of the mountain.

Its not all cupcakes and rainbows, lol.

Not the first rocky start to a ski season and it won't be the last. I have a high threshold for bad conditions. Ice, powder, having to take your skis off and walk to the next skiable patch, it all fun to me. I don't need rolled corduroy, give me the gnarly sh*t and I'll have more fun. Things are looking up and better days are coming. Long live Ullr.

4.4". I admit that of the comma head is a little more east...it could be more.

Cool. I'm thinking 4-5" as well but I could see it being a bit higher. (I never entertain the doomsday Messenger scenarios) I'm hoping to at least hit my December average. That would put me around 50" by the first of January. Anything I get tonight is a bonus considering this storm wasn't supposed to happen as so many of the "No way this can happen it would have to thread the needle perfectly" posts pointed out.

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Nice to see the mid atlantic thread and pa threads this evening, you can tell the joy in the posts, they deserve the snow down there even into Virginia its been so warm, hard to imagine yet another snow even to our sw while the berkshires poor rain till at least the wee hours............that trough axis has sucked all season.

Congrats to our southern neighbors!

Hasn't been as warm there as in New England. We have the biggest departures in the USA for the fall and early winter.

I don't care what Pete says about ski season and the October snow, it's been downright bleak here. Low of 51F last night at 1200' in SW NH, heavy rainstorm with a coastal low, jogging and tennis in shorts...this is the worst season we've had since December 2006 in Vermont. What's particularly insulting was that everyone was expecting a big winter with a -NAO, especially given our history in weak Niñas, and it has felt like a Gulf Coast fall lately. We're +10 for December after finishing November +6.2, and it's pouring rain out when it's supposed to be bitter cold and snow like December 2008. Toaster time.

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Not the first rocky start to a ski season and it won't be the last. I have a high threshold for bad conditions. Ice, powder, having to take your skis off and walk to the next skiable patch, it all fun to me. I don't need rolled corduroy, give me the gnarly sh*t and I'll have more fun. Things are looking up and better days are coming. Long live Ullr.

Cool. I'm thinking 4-5" as well but I could see it being a bit higher. (I never entertain the doomsday Messenger scenarios) I'm hoping to at least hit my December average. That would put me around 50" by the first of January. Anything I get tonight is a bonus considering this storm wasn't supposed to happen as so many of the "No way this can happen it would have to thread the needle perfectly" posts pointed out.

No matter how many people tell you the conditions are almost unskiable including people that work at the resorts you continue to deny any of it.

You've taken too many bumps to the head from all that Heman skiing you've done this fall, I said 3-4" was a reasonable bottom end of the range. Get it, as in 3-6 or 4-8". Maybe you're expecting 20", I don't know, but I do know 4 or 5 people disagreed with what you said and you still want to argue about it.

Enjoy your snow after 11.

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Some reports of thunder and even TSSN in PA, so some areas could still see this late tonight. 21z sounding in Albany noted a stronger warm layer near 850mb, than was progged which isn't surprising.

That's disappointing. :(

It will probably become more vertical as the low approaches us and bombs out. This is why it may take a good while for us to turn over.

Tremendous mid-level forcing over us right now. If this antecedent airmass were even seasonally cold...

Said with the board's collective sigh.....

40.4/40

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Nice to see the mid atlantic thread and pa threads this evening, you can tell the joy in the posts, they deserve the snow down there even into Virginia its been so warm, hard to imagine yet another snow even to our sw while the berkshires poor rain till at least the wee hours............that trough axis has sucked all season.

Congrats to our southern neighbors!

Snowing really hard in Oakland, MD. The palm trees skimrg thinks we have down here are suffering.

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Not the first rocky start to a ski season and it won't be the last. I have a high threshold for bad conditions. Ice, powder, having to take your skis off and walk to the next skiable patch, it all fun to me. I don't need rolled corduroy, give me the gnarly sh*t and I'll have more fun. Things are looking up and better days are coming. Long live Ullr.

Hey Pete, so do I if you've ever looked at most of the pics I post. The only problem is there aren't even bad conditions to be had, lol. I hike Mansfield in late May to ski 10 turns on a drift somewhere... don't think I'm trying to sell this short. Its just that 90% of the mountain is dirt right now... and tomorrow it'll be a few inches of snow on mud (the ground isn't even frozen, not even close) which I'll ski and like it.

I just don't want you to think its really good because you like the gnarly stuff... I do too, its just not even an option right now. Trust me, I love skiing and am quite proficient at it in all conditions from skiing every day all winter long (150 days or so per season)... I'm just telling it like it is right now. Today was my 15th straight day skiing and I probably wont miss a day until at least Christmas when I might take one day off from the slopes. However, let me tell you that 15 days in a row of many hours per day on the same couple runs is getting old. Its not like you can even poach or go into the backcountry or even try something else because then its called hiking in the mud, not skiing. Bleak.

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Hey Pete, so do I if you've ever looked at most of the pics I post. The only problem is there aren't even bad conditions to be had, lol. I hike Mansfield in late May to ski 10 turns on a drift somewhere... don't think I'm trying to sell this short. Its just that 90% of the mountain is dirt right now... and tomorrow it'll be a few inches of snow on mud (the ground isn't even frozen, not even close) which I'll ski and like it.

I just don't want you to think its really good because you like the gnarly stuff... I do too, its just not even an option right now. Trust me, I love skiing and am quite proficient at it in all conditions from skiing every day all winter long (150 days or so per season)... I'm just telling it like it is right now. Today was my 15th straight day skiing and I probably wont miss a day until at least Christmas when I might take one day off from the slopes. However, let me tell you that 15 days in a row of many hours per day on the same couple runs is getting old. Its not like you can even poach or go into the backcountry or even try something else because then its called hiking in the mud, not skiing. Bleak.

Do you work at Stowe? Just wondering how you manage to ski every single day.

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Do you work at Stowe? Just wondering how you manage to ski every single day.

Yes. They pay me to ski, its actually in the job description to ski a variety of trails and terrain each day. I do the snow report, photos, videos, social media, etc and I'm based out of the Mountain Operations Center at the resort. I help plan the grooming and snowmaking needs as well as weather forecasts for all operations. This season I'm also doing hydro analysis for NWS BTV office and snowpack assessments, so that should be cool. I spend 40 hours a week at the resort and then ski on my days off, too.

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Yes. They pay me to ski, its actually in the job description to ski a variety of trails and terrain each day. I do the snow report, photos, videos, social media, etc and I'm based out of the Mountain Operations Center at the resort. I help plan the grooming and snowmaking needs as well as weather forecasts for all operations. This season I'm also doing hydro analysis for NWS BTV office and snowpack assessments, so that should be cool. I spend 40 hours a week at the resort and then ski on my days off, too.

While we wait the changeover out....

Thanks for the honesty and the information. If I'm up at Stowe this winter I'll drop in and say hello. It's on the list for a weekend but we're debating pooling the money and going out west depending on how things look later in December.

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No matter how many people tell you the conditions are almost unskiable including people that work at the resorts you continue to deny any of it.

You've taken too many bumps to the head from all that Heman skiing you've done this fall, I said 3-4" was a reasonable bottom end of the range. Get it, as in 3-6 or 4-8". Maybe you're expecting 20", I don't know, but I do know 4 or 5 people disagreed with what you said and you still want to argue about it.

Enjoy your snow after 11.

WTF are you talking about?

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I think this whole system being tilted a bit more longitude-wise is going to cost most of us. It will help N VT down to E NY but hurt interior SNE....we should still see a flip at the end and it could rip for an hour or two....but unfortunately it looks like we wont get it for 4 or 5 hours which could have cashed in pretty good on the rates.

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Yes. They pay me to ski, its actually in the job description to ski a variety of trails and terrain each day. I do the snow report, photos, videos, social media, etc and I'm based out of the Mountain Operations Center at the resort. I help plan the grooming and snowmaking needs as well as weather forecasts for all operations. This season I'm also doing hydro analysis for NWS BTV office and snowpack assessments, so that should be cool. I spend 40 hours a week at the resort and then ski on my days off, too.

That sounds like a pretty awesome job. Very cool.

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