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Thursday Wintry Threat II


Baroclinic Zone

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Lets hope so Pete, but its been god awful, Okemo with still only 4 runs, at the top, pouring rain all day up that way. Lets hope they see snow tonight, enough to build on over the next few days.

ORH is +9.2 through yesterday, your area above +10 for the first week in December, incredible warmth, just incredible after a record breaking warm autumn, and yes you did snow in October.

Bottom line ski season to date has been atrocious, and the first week of December has been a blow torch. I hope to God ski country gets snow!

Not according to Pete, one of the best in recent memory but you're being a woos and won't ski on rocks so there's more rocks for him. I'm surprised Pete wasn't out there today taking advantage of the wonderful conditions.

Well Dan Brown on ABC 40 said you won't see a flake until after midnight. Hopefully he's incorrect.

Quite possible, tale of the tape will be told in the next hour or so.

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It's amazing that despite all the December torch talk and how ski resorts would be closed at Christmas here we are at the end of week 1 with a decent storm about to dump on many areas and a protracted period of snowmaking temps to follow. Trail counts should really expand over the weekend and beyond. Like me, many people will have a great time skiing in the next fews days. Sadly, there are some that see brown in their backyards and choose to miss the fun. More for us!!!!

Haha I'm not going to lie, Pete, its still pretty bleak for skiing. Sugarbush, Okemo, Stratton, etc aren't even top-to-bottom (ie, not even man-made snow below 2,500ft), Jay Peak was closed Mon-Wed this week, at Stowe we are barely holding it together on the bottom half of the mountain.

Its not all cupcakes and rainbows, lol.

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HRRR insisting that most of us flip to snow from ORH on east with enough for a coating to 1" Obviously it's the HRRR so take it fwiw. RUC is more like the 18z NAM/GFS runs and lift out the precip before the cold can make it east.

Note the little weenie strip of >1" extending down to tolland co. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/displayMap.cgi?keys=hrrr:&runtime=2011120721&plot_type=acsnw_t3sfc&fcst=15&time_inc=60&num_times=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=t3&adtfn=1&wjet=1

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Weird, southern part of Hampshire (?) county has no hazards?

I probably got the county wrong. South of Greenfield, north of Springfield

Yup--that's the Eastern Hampshire county zone. Probalby should drop them in green just so they don't stick out. :)

4.4". I admit that of the comma head is a little more east...it could be more.

Let's just add .6" to that and call it an even 5".

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Mike, you can have my 0.6

Lol.

Just took a gander at the new zfp that just came out. Surprised to see the zr references. Also, appears they lowered the accums in the zones south of western Franklin. Typo's I'm sure. smile.png

40.5/40

WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHFIELD...CHARLEMONT...COLRAIN...

SHELBURNE

717 PM EST WED DEC 7 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO

6 AM EST THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING...THEN SNOW...

RAIN...FREEZING RAIN WITH A CHANCE OF SLEET AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. COOLER

WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...

INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF

PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.

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HRRR insisting that most of us flip to snow from ORH on east with enough for a coating to 1" Obviously it's the HRRR so take it fwiw. RUC is more like the 18z NAM/GFS runs and lift out the precip before the cold can make it east.

Note the little weenie strip of >1" extending down to tolland co. http://rapidrefresh....&adtfn=1&wjet=1

Really shows where the hills are on the hi res. Great shot of elevation

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Really? I would have expected the line to be more vertical than that.

40.7/40

It will probably become more vertical as the low approaches us and bombs out. This is why it may take a good while for us to turn over.

Tremendous mid-level forcing over us right now. If this antecedent airmass were even seasonally cold...

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