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Thursday Wintry Threat II


Baroclinic Zone

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Well, I'm not sure when the flip to snow takes place in relation to the freezing 850, but it seems there's some precip taking place post it's passage out here.

Meanwhile, only 10 degrees more to hit freezing.

42.0/42

Temps are running about as forecast out by you, colder here in the east. Progression of colder air starts about 6-7pm out where you are.....

Euro looks to me like it's goign to have been too cold at 0z tonight.

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You can LOL all you want, I'd rather be optimistic and post than posting non-sense trolling/whining when you miss a storm like you and Kevin.. this low is bombing as it comes by and I think it will have some surprises with it.. what the surprises are, I don't know, but I'm already over the fact it will be mostly rain here, so instead of trolling my posts just don't comment at all.

Im no met, but I like what I see from the NAM, GFS and hi Res ARW and NMM models on changover potential. You always have to watch a dynamical bombing system like this one. I also like the fact that each model ticked ever so slightly E at 12z. Its going to be interesting if that continues on 18z and 00z

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Has anyone looked at the hi Res 12z NMM and ARW from NCEP? They are usually Good with temps and they both have the 850 collapsing quite earlier than the other models... it shows about 6 hours of heavy snow from a death band on the back side.. pretty damn I interesting...

I followed them during that last SWFE and they were good with forecasting the 850 line

I'm a realist...big difference.

Not sure how you can refer to it as "pessimism", when in fact I am right much more often than I am wrong.

Deal with that.

Sarcastic, sure.

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Water-wa-wa-terchusett!

Tough times for WaWa. They may have to string together a few hundred slip and slides from the top soon.

Be interesting to see if the Ruc is onto something with the torch recommencing in the next 2 hours. Euro/NAM say no way and the cooling is here to stay. Neat little temp bump in CT over Ginx head which should go away soon.

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Tough times for WaWa. They may have to string together a few hundred slip and slides from the top soon.

Be interesting to see if the Ruc is onto something with the torch recommencing in the next 2 hours. Euro/NAM say no way and the cooling is here to stay. Neat little temp bump in CT over Ginx head which should go away soon.

Any recollection how this winter ranks in terms of poor starts at the NE ski slopes. (Since the late 80's) I'm going to guess somewhere in the middle thus far...

Hoping all the areas in NNE still pull off 6"+

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Any recollection how this winter ranks in terms of poor starts at the NE ski slopes. (Since the late 80's) I'm going to guess somewhere in the middle thus far...

Hoping all the areas in NNE still pull off 6"+

Well if you own WaWa, Bluehill or any other SNE slope it can't be any worse at any other time as they aren't open and the mountain is bare.

Thanks to all the recreational skiers spending their money the big mountains have loaded the trails with guns in the last few years so they'll do okay once it gets cold. I'm pretty sure they'll not be happy if we torch again in a week. Look at Killington, 13 days ago Pete correctly noted they had 30 trails open. Only 15 today. Most resorts aside of SR went backward.

Depending on how this plays out tonight I may try to ski Friday or Saturday but likewise I'm not driving to NY or VT to find more than a few trails. Hoping this can pull some magic and Loon or SR gets buried.

Temps have leveled here, RUC to me has to be on ludes, can't see how it torches this much.

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