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Thursday Wintry Threat II


Baroclinic Zone

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You didn't get what I was saying. Just because that sounding says it's for ORH doesn't mean it really is. A lot of times those are for the nearest grid point and not necessarily at the exact location. It's much better to wait for the BUFKIT soundings to see for sure. Those particular soundings (and Plymouth State's) aren't particularly accurate.

And I was saying ORH is too warm to jackpot. That's fact. They start as rain then transition over.

Anyway I don't really care what they get since if the NAM is right I'm just about all rain :)

This sounds like your favorite type of event...listening to me talking about the N ORH hills and monads.

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I believe Plymouth uses the same amount of decimals as BUFKIT...hundredths. I could be wrong though.

Are the psc ones from 12km or 40 km NAM?

I know some of the websites like twister data just send you to the nearest grid point even if you type in a certain town. PSC is better.

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toss?

I don't think we toss. It is still part of the trend. This one looks to come in just a touch warmer than we want and we may have to settle with the possibility of a cold rain maker. Which if you ask any of my fellow students is what I have been saying......which means I like this run from my forecast standpoint.

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Hah ... That was a diabolical and cruel NAM run. Slowest yet with the front, frontal precip never gets pushed south of a line from central PA to the mid Hudson Valley to about CON ..... So I figure hey it will push back north and we get into it... no ...it only pushes north about 25 miles to near ALB and then kicks right east.

Obviously the thing is getting booted out by the polar jet amplifying I guess. So verbatim from like 1" in ALB to a foot in PSF?

Hey....1/2 per hour for 2 hours....all a brother needs....

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It was crazy. I'm looking at it 3 hr increment at a time and thinking around 36 to 42 hours ..this is so amped I could have P type issues. then it essentially just gives it up and shears out I guess.

The s/w is falling apart, the system is opening up as it moves through. If that's actually what happens I see a shredded mess unable to deliver the dynamics needed to cool most of the lowlands during the peak of the storm.

Terrible run IMO, but it's the NAM.

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sorry for the OT. lol

Believe me, The Rev has been 'shopped.

Nah its cool..an occasional pic is good for the humor in the thread...we obviously don't want people posting 100 pics like that...but you are sort of the designated "occasional pic poster" so to speak.

I understand the precedent shouldan't be for everyone to post pics, but a couple here and there in moderation are fine and make the thread a more fun place IMHO.

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What are you looking at to determine this? Have been trying to figure out what should be looked at

The surface winds are northerly even down into se mass. Not much in the way of strong ne flow..it's just northerly flow and cold air drainage....but the problem is that "cold" this time around is mostly mid 30s, with a mild atmosphere aloft until the last minute.

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