CapturedNature Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I guess NWS Albany decided to go with winter storm warnings for my area. P&C has me with 6-10". Not sure I get quite that much unless I can pull off a faster changeover. I wasn't quite expecting them to go to warnings this soon given their normally conservative nature. I'm still expecting the best fireworks just to my north along the west side of the southern and central Greens. Woodford, VT at 2.4K is going to jackpot with this one with a solid 12"+ type event I think. Cold air already banking up against the west slope some, which will lead to a quicker changeover. 41/39 RA That would be my bet too. The Webcam there (if they can get it reset) should be interesting come tomorrow. At least we can see the weather on the mesonet. http://170.222.32.148/9/ http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base.cgi?stn=VTWOO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Is .2 -.3 of qpf falling as snow? Yeah it seems like 0.2" or so at least. Maybe 0.3 near hubbdave. It's all going to come down to how and when the comma head can get together. Some of the models really went to town for about an hour over your area and into ne mass...even a little longer in ne mass. The fact that it is moving so quickly will limit things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 The only thing I don't like about the euro is that it really dries us out quick after 09z, so that is a little disconcerting. Looks like it has you about 37ish at 9z with lots of RH still left but it flies out so quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 winter storm warning for the berks now URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 1209 PM EST WED DEC 7 2011 MAZ001-025-NYZ058-063-VTZ013-014-080100- /O.UPG.KALY.WW.Y.0023.111207T2300Z-111208T1100Z/ /O.NEW.KALY.WS.W.0014.111207T2300Z-111208T1100Z/ NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-WESTERN GREENE- WESTERN ULSTER-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PITTSFIELD...NORTH ADAMS... GREAT BARRINGTON...LEE...LENOX...HOUSATONIC...HUNTER... TANNERSVILLE...WINDHAM...SUNDOWN...ELLENVILLE...WOODSTOCK... WEST HURLEY...KERHONKSON...NAPANOCH...PHOENICIA...BENNINGTON... JACKSONVILLE...NEWFANE 1209 PM EST WED DEC 7 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND BENNINGTON COUNTY...6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS...AND 8 TO 16 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTY. * TIMING...RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. * IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS. * WINDS...BECOMING NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH OVERNIGHT. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S THIS EVENING...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S BY THURSDAY MORNING. * VISIBILITIES...GENERALLY ONE QUARTER TO ONE MILE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. Fookin' sweet!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Ride the Euro like a wh0re on nickel night. I am going to ride it until i have saddle sores.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 It is faster, But if you pull up the Northeast region and follow the track and thicknesses from 00z thurs to 12z and match it up with same timefarme on the 0z and 12z you can see a difference in where the low tracks up here anyways once it gets to SE Mass.. Yeah I compared the two earlier which is why I referenced that it seems to be a tick cooler, but what I was referring to, was how quick the dry punch was able to come in here. It's a race. IMO, it almost seems a little too quick given the QPF amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 If I see flakes..it's a win. I haven't seen any actual frozen precip since October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 We knew the inevitable last 12 hour east shift would happen. Hopefully that's enough to get snow even to the coast now Yes we did. I'm telling you it happens every single time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Yeah I compared the two earlier which is why I referenced that it seems to be a tick cooler, but what I was referring to, was how quick the dry punch was able to come in here. It's a race. IMO, it almost seems a little too quick given the QPF amounts. I agree with you, It seems to drop quite a bit of qpf for a storm to be moving that fast, Kind of a flag, You would not think you could get those totals with that forward speed, These shifts SE will play a big role for some areas that had the 544 dm line over there head and now have the 540 dm line over them with some of these SE shifts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 May be the shift the resorts needed.....if it pans out will be lots of resort ops doing the happy dance in the morning. I think the ski areas will do pretty well up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Yes we did. I'm telling you it happens every single time. It seems like it has the last couple years anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I am going to ride it until i have saddle sores.. If nothing else, it'll give this thread a shot in the arm for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Yes we did. I'm telling you it happens every single time. They always trend way nw..We know that. But the last 12-24 hours they always seem to come back east 50 miles or so..sometimes more. I'd bet Ray's ballz on your wallz that the 18z NAM comes east by a decent amt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 It seems like it has the last couple years anyways Yeah, although looking at the meso-analysis the current pressures and pressure changes seem closest to the GFS. NAM looks to be a bit too far south for where things are right now. I haven't compared the ECM yet. RUC has been rock steady today but again its the RUC after 12 hours out. UKMET is really amped more like the GFS and RUC. Maybe the EURO farted or it'll be onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I agree with you, It seems to drop quite a bit of qpf for a storm to be moving that fast, Kind of a flag, You would not think you could get those totals with that forward speed, These shifts SE will play a big role for some areas that had the 544 dm line over there head and now have the 540 dm line over them with some of these SE shifts Oh, I mean that what I'm seeing kind of makes me scratch my head. I believe the speed of the system, but the output that I saw seemed weird...not the QPF. Anyways, hopefully this thing really wraps up south of SNE. I like the euro depiction, because it keeps the DS more to the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 They always trend way nw..We know that. But the last 12-24 hours they always seem to come back east 50 miles or so..sometimes more. I'd bet Ray's ballz on your wallz that the 18z NAM comes east by a decent amt. This will not go 50 miles from earlier this morning. No way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 They always trend way nw..We know that. But the last 12-24 hours they always seem to come back east 50 miles or so..sometimes more. I'd bet Ray's ballz on your wallz that the 18z NAM comes east by a decent amt. What is a "decent amount"? Haha. I think there's only so far east it can go at this point now (just like some where saying theres only so far west it can go). RUC has been drilling the same track all day long right along the UKMET/GFS tracks, so it would be very interesting to see if this goes east and why it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 This will not go 50 miles from earlier this morning. No way. No i mean in total. Since the Euro only runs twice a day the shift is more pronounced and noticeable. the 12z NAM came east about 25 miles..and I'd bet the 18z is another 25 east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Nah it's safe for now. I remind all...judgement is midnight 12/25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Canadian is on the eastern side of the envelope but it has been all along with this storm... it actually came a bit NW at 12z from 00z, but is still on the eastern side. Shows just how far out to lunch it was at 00z last night, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I remind all...judgement is midnight 12/25. I mean for the next day..lol. I'm sure hoping you are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I'm kind of hoping it rains on MPM though....for the SE trend comments. Would like to see it adjust just far enough NW so he gets mangled flakes. Lol. Did i offend you? I thought i had made a funny. Temp dropping slowly to 43.4. Heading out of holden now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 No i mean in total. Since the Euro only runs twice a day the shift is more pronounced and noticeable. the 12z NAM came east about 25 miles..and I'd bet the 18z is another 25 east.. It's almost dead on from 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Oh, I mean that what I'm seeing kind of makes me scratch my head. I believe the speed of the system, but the output that I saw seemed weird...not the QPF. Anyways, hopefully this thing really wraps up south of SNE. I like the euro depiction, because it keeps the DS more to the southeast. Where was it showing a dry layer? Was it at 700 or lower? Or was it where the dryslot was in relation to the track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 It's almost dead on from 00z. Nah..if you compare the 2 it was slightly east..not enough to matter at 12z ..but it might be at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 GYX's noon update............. .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 1201 PM...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS. STILL DIGESTING AVAILABLE 12Z GUIDANCE. SOME CONCERN WE COULD HAVE A BAND OF SNOW APPROACHING WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. CLOSER TO THE COAST...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PUSH SOME OF THE SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS OVER SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST MAINE TO NEAR BANKFULL ON THURSDAY. 935 AM...I ADJUSTED 1ST PERIOD POPS UP TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS PRECIPITATION EXPANDS IN COVERAGE WITH APPROACHING IMPULSE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW AS WELL FOR TONIGHT. I HAVE SOME CONCERNS FOR SULLIVAN AND WESTERN MERRIMACK COUNTIES WHERE I SPED UP THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WITH THE UPDATE. IF PRESENT TRENDS HOLD WITH THE NEW 12Z MODELS...I WILL LIKELY EXPAND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THAT AREA WITH THE NEW AFTERNOON PACKAGE. HEIGHTS CRASH LATER TONIGHT AND WE COULD SEE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW EVEN ALONG THE COAST TOWARDS DAWN BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. ON THE WATERS...I WILL UPDATE THE MWW TO MENTION POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR STORM FORCE OVER THE OPEN WATERS ON THURSDAY. HAV A GUD DAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 BGM up on the hill has gone to 2sm wet snow at 34F. All other stations in their area are still rain. This appears reasonably accurate right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Nah..if you compare the 2 it was slightly east..not enough to matter at 12z ..but it might be at 18z You're reaching...lol. I hope it goes east too, but I think the general track near the Cape is set. Hopefully it comes together real quick, because imo that is more important than the actual track. It's going to be the big lift that helps cool the column along with CAA. This will be a great hit for the NW slopes of the Berks and west slopes of VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Well, A least when this storm passes, Temps look to be near normal for this time of year up here anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 temps are having a hard time dropping around here, and even west of here in NW CT where I live full time. 1-2" there max, flakes in the air here maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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