Organizing Low Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Yeah I know SNE'ers had a lot of that following the '09-'10 winter. Last winter when the storms started creeping north and west on models to include not only just Mid-Atlantic but SNE, everyone sort of expected *something* to happen and have it go out to sea leaving heavy snow only NYC southward. You need a couple storms to wash out the bad taste from some previous winters worth of storm tracks leaving you on the outside. but didnt N VT get slammed in the second half of winter last year? they had record flooding in spots, if I am not mistaken.....and skiiing until late May? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Well folks a bit of good news, just went to the sugar house cam at okemo, and its snowing lightly, well ahead of schedule, that cant be all bad? That's quite interesting... any precip up this way has been drizzle or freezing drizzle. Still only 30F at 4,000ft and winds are almost calm which is very odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I agree.....it looks like a forecast straight out of Tolland heights. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 1.1" of qpf here after the 0C 850 line crosses at 0Z.... Certainly won't have a problem verifying the advisory. 35.6/34 now.... you were all over the NW trend with this one, congrats you will cash in.... how much are you thinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 but didnt N VT get slammed in the second half of winter last year? they had record flooding in spots, if I am not mistaken.....and skiiing until late May? I don't know if I would say slammed... we got lucky with that one storm in early March that dropped like 20-30". That one was very similar to this one where it was pouring rain the night before, then changed to snow as the front slipped south and another low rode up the boundary. That was the only storm we jackpotted in... even the April 1st storm went east at the last moment and screwed us. We had winter storm warnings up and ended up with like 3" of snow when we were expecting up to 10". And there's always skiing well into May it seems... its just the way the snowpack builds and lasts. We nickeled and dimed all last winter, piggybacking on the SNE storms in January. Then got lucky with that one March event. The record flooding came from all the snow melting in about 2-3 days in April along with thunderstorms and 4" of rain in 3 hours one night. It wasn't due to unprecedented levels of snowpack, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Steady rain here now and 36. Lots of wasted qpf during the day today..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Well folks a bit of good news, just went to the sugar house cam at okemo, and its snowing lightly, well ahead of schedule, that cant be all bad? Steady snow up at Lake Placid/Whiteface. Nice interactive webcam but blacks out sometime and you have to deal with people who like to point it at the ground for some reason. http://www.whiteface.com/mountain/cams.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Steady rain here now and 36. Lots of wasted qpf during the day today..... If we had even a seasonal air mass in place you would have been looking at a good 20 hours of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I don't know if I would say slammed... we got lucky with that one storm in early March that dropped like 20-30". That one was very similar to this one where it was pouring rain the night before, then changed to snow as the front slipped south and another low rode up the boundary. That was the only storm we jackpotted in... even the April 1st storm went east at the last moment and screwed us. We had winter storm warnings up and ended up with like 3" of snow when we were expecting up to 10". And there's always skiing well into May it seems... its just the way the snowpack builds and lasts. We nickeled and dimed all last winter, piggybacking on the SNE storms in January. Then got lucky with that one March event. The record flooding came from all the snow melting in about 2-3 days in April along with thunderstorms and 4" of rain in 3 hours one night. It wasn't due to unprecedented levels of snowpack, lol. Tough times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I don't know if I would say slammed... we got lucky with that one storm in early March that dropped like 20-30". That one was very similar to this one where it was pouring rain the night before, then changed to snow as the front slipped south and another low rode up the boundary. That was the only storm we jackpotted in... even the April 1st storm went east at the last moment and screwed us. We had winter storm warnings up and ended up with like 3" of snow when we were expecting up to 10". And there's always skiing well into May it seems... its just the way the snowpack builds and lasts. We nickeled and dimed all last winter, piggybacking on the SNE storms in January. Then got lucky with that one March event. The record flooding came from all the snow melting in about 2-3 days in April along with thunderstorms and 4" of rain in 3 hours one night. It wasn't due to unprecedented levels of snowpack, lol. that March storm was a doozy. shutdown a lot of SE quebec for days. yeah i guess i just remember all the storms last season passing S and E and it seemed they would always trend NW just enough to reach the border.....so yeah a lot of piggybacking, but it seemed like VT got a fair amount of snow that way. speaking to regualr people in N VT from across the border though, they will say they got 'a lot of snow' last season so that is where I got my impression also....i think the March storm was memorable for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 b1TCH SLAP You could sense him trying to steal some excitement and Scooter Scrooge just slammed the door. You can LOL all you want, I'd rather be optimistic and post than posting non-sense trolling/whining when you miss a storm like you and Kevin.. this low is bombing as it comes by and I think it will have some surprises with it.. what the surprises are, I don't know, but I'm already over the fact it will be mostly rain here, so instead of trolling my posts just don't comment at all. Im no met, but I like what I see from the NAM, GFS and hi Res ARW and NMM models on changover potential. You always have to watch a dynamical bombing system like this one. I also like the fact that each model ticked ever so slightly E at 12z. Its going to be interesting if that continues on 18z and 00z ----------------------- Has anyone looked at the hi Res 12z NMM and ARW from NCEP? They are usually Good with temps and they both have the 850 collapsing quite earlier than the other models... it shows about 6 hours of heavy snow from a death band on the back side.. pretty damn I interesting... I followed them during that last SWFE and they were good with forecasting the 850 line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 my dad was near coaticook for that one they had over 3 feet and a snow drift buried his truck!! that March storm was a doozy. shutdown a lot of SE quebec for days. yeah i guess i just remember all the storms last season passing S and E and it seemed they would always trend NW just enough to reach the border.....so yeah a lot of piggybacking, but it seemed like VT got a fair amount of snow that way. speaking to regualr people in N VT from across the border though, they will say they got 'a lot of snow' last season so that is where I got my impression also....i think the March storm was memorable for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Hey PF- you've been in the BTV CWA longer than I. DO you think they'll abandon their conservative approach (aka giving you 2") by the afternoon shift after analyzing 12z guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 RUC now starting to give interior mass se nh and maine some decent snows later tonight, signs of it hitting the comma head potential up arond kgay and points northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 You can LOL all you want, I'd rather be optimistic and post than posting non-sense trolling/whining when you miss a storm like you and Kevin.. this low is bombing as it comes by and I think it will have some surprises with it.. what the surprises are, I don't know, but I'm already over the fact it will be mostly rain here, so instead of trolling my posts just don't comment at all. Always thought snownh would meet his weenie death at the hands of a snowstorm bust... it now appears time to break out the toaster and fill up the tub.. as the pessimist ray and kevin laugh cynically in the background Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Not that it means much since we aren't get a big snow event, but Ray's area on into se NH could be a "secondary" weenie spot in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Just Catching a peek here in the pouring orh rain. Looks like the 3-5 advisory continues as a reasonable outcome. HoPe to hit the high end, but not feeling it from what i can see on my phone. 44.4/48 at the pit. Temp drop is like watching paint dry. Ftl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Always thought snownh would meet his weenie death at the hands of a snowstorm bust... it now appears time to break out the toaster and fill up the tub.. as the pessimist ray and kevin laugh cynically in the background He is just giving his thoughts about what he sees on the models. It may or may not be correct, but at least he is putting his thoughts out there...his expectations seem in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 RUC now starting to give interior mass se nh and maine some decent snows later tonight, signs of it hitting the comma head potential up arond kgay and points northeast If i could post weenies from my phone....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 In February the pattern started shifting and there was a slow westward shift in storm tracks as I recall. I got around a foot in the late February storm and again in the early March storm. I wonder if the Gatineau Hills got more snow from that wave Tuesday night ...while Ottawa had all that cold rain. My old camping grounds from when I was a teenager ...but dunno if many populated towns have much elevation. that March storm was a doozy. shutdown a lot of SE quebec for days. yeah i guess i just remember all the storms last season passing S and E and it seemed they would always trend NW just enough to reach the border.....so yeah a lot of piggybacking, but it seemed like VT got a fair amount of snow that way. speaking to regualr people in N VT from across the border though, they will say they got 'a lot of snow' last season so that is where I got my impression also....i think the March storm was memorable for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skizoo Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Well folks a bit of good news, just went to the sugar house cam at okemo, and its snowing lightly, well ahead of schedule, that cant be all bad? I wish I could say the above is true, but it is not snowing at the Sugarhouse, it's actually raining fairly steadily at the moment, temps are 39.9 at 1600FT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I wish I could say the above is true, but it is not snowing at the Sugarhouse, it's actually raining fairly steadily at the moment, temps are 39.9 at 1600FT I looked 20 minutes ago and flakes were flying on webcam lol, now its socked in with fog and cant see a thing. but flakes werew flying a while back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 In February the pattern started shifting and there was a slow westward shift in storm tracks as I recall. I got around a foot in the late February storm and again in the early March storm. I wonder if the Gatineau Hills got more snow from that wave Tuesday night ...while Ottawa had all that cold rain. My old camping grounds from when I was a teenager ...but dunno if many populated towns have much elevation. yeah elevation should help with these wet snow deals. you should do well. if they did get some accums north of ottawa city, it woudlnt have been much more than the 1/2 inch in ottawa. the models backed off on the cold in the leading days, and even the upper ottawa valley out near pembroke struggled to reach 32, but they didn't receive any snow at all (wave was too far S). you had to go NW back to north bay to see temps in the upper 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I looked 20 minutes ago and flakes were flying on webcam lol, now its socked in with fog and cant see a thing. but flakes werew flying a while back. I suppose it was possible with the deeper moisture and lift closer to them, than Stowe. The meso models all kind of have this feature with the ULL separate from the storm. It's this comma like feature zooming up from the southwest. Still think someone may see thunder with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 You can LOL all you want, I'd rather be optimistic and post than posting non-sense trolling/whining when you miss a storm like you and Kevin.. this low is bombing as it comes by and I think it will have some surprises with it.. what the surprises are, I don't know, but I'm already over the fact it will be mostly rain here, so instead of trolling my posts just don't comment at all. Im no met, but I like what I see from the NAM, GFS and hi Res ARW and NMM models on changover potential. You always have to watch a dynamical bombing system like this one. I also like the fact that each model ticked ever so slightly E at 12z. Its going to be interesting if that continues on 18z and 00z Ya had me fooled....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I looked 20 minutes ago and flakes were flying on webcam lol, now its socked in with fog and cant see a thing. but flakes werew flying a while back. I looked at the cam and saw what you were talking about, but couldn't tell if it was rain or snow. Grainy web cam footage of rain drops can look like snow. I saw the same thing on the Killington cams. Ground was wet and surface temps were warm, so probably rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Too bad this thing hauls arse. Just 2-3 hrs slower could have been really fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I looked at the cam and saw what you were talking about, but couldn't tell if it was rain or snow. Grainy web cam footage of rain drops can look like snow. I saw the same thing on the Killington cams. Ground was wet and surface temps were warm, so probably rain. It was snowing 30 minutes ago, light but it was snowing, fog rolled in and now its socked in with light rain. Geez........decent precip is only in the southern 1/3 of VT right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skizoo Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I looked 20 minutes ago and flakes were flying on webcam lol, now its socked in with fog and cant see a thing. but flakes werew flying a while back. I guess it's possible, but webcams can be deceiving.. I was sitting at the sugarhouse on one of the picnic tables from about 10:30 till it started raining steadily around 11 am.. Never saw anything close to snow, but my eyes are not quite what they used to be either Right now I'm about 150 feet above the Sugarhouse.. just rain.. Temp down to 39.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I guess it's possible, but webcams can be deceiving.. I was sitting at the sugarhouse on one of the picnic tables from about 10:30 till it started raining steadily around 11 am.. Never saw anything close to snow, but my eyes are not quite what they used to be either Right now I'm about 150 feet above the Sugarhouse.. just rain.. Temp down to 39.7 Or perhaps I was seeing things, I swear it was snowing for a few minutes, let us know when it starts snowing, any flakes up at the summit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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