Tropopause_Fold Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Hmmm. I was thinking the track overhead would hold the strong gusts off until the storm passed. Maybe 20-30mph out of the SW then crank out of the WNW. there's a short window really close to dawn when guidance brings a potent LLJ across the island...nothing you haven't experienced before but definitely some strong SW winds...sustained 30 to 40 type stuff for a brief window. then yes, NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 hr 30 has this bombing out to 966mb hr 36 is 956mb thats insane bombing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 threw 12 the gfs looks like it is going to be nudging east Yup it looked like it went a hair east/colder.. what a race this will be.. and certainly it will be awesome to follow from the met standpoint! Hopefully things keep ticking east at 18z and 00z, then it's HRRR/ RUC/ nowcast time... Much better to have rain changing to snow instead of snow changing to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I like SW VT right now Too warm. Go north. Killington and Stowe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Yup it looked like it went a hair east/colder.. what a race this will be.. and certainly it will be awesome to follow from the met standpoint! Hopefully things keep ticking east at 18z and 00z, then it's HRRR/ RUC/ nowcast time... Much better to have rain changing to snow instead of snow changing to rain. You'll be lucky if you get an inch I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Too warm. Go north. Killington and Stowe. Yep, after all Powderfreaks denials his reverse pscho won, solid 4-8 for him followed by cold, should be a solid weekend for ski country with the freshies and guns blasting 4-5 days straight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Too warm. Go north. Killington and Stowe. No way the nne ski resorts see snow from this...did you see the hr 84 GFS the other day....get with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 You'll be lucky if you get an inch I think. b1TCH SLAP You could sense him trying to steal some excitement and Scooter Scrooge just slammed the door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Yep, after all Powderfreaks denials his reverse pscho won, solid 4-8 for him followed by cold, should be a solid weekend for ski country with the freshies and guns blasting 4-5 days straight. Haha I honestly just did not see this coming up this far NW... But i guess the pattern is much different from last year and the winter prior. And if reverse psychology actually worked, this would be crushing Tolland after some of the posts yesterday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Haha I honestly just did not see this coming up this far NW... But i guess the pattern is much different from last year and the winter prior. And if reverse psychology actually worked, this would be crushing Tolland after some of the posts yesterday morning. Nothing slips the grasp of your intellect, does it. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 No way the nne ski resorts see snow from this...did you see the hr 84 GFS the other day....get with it. Yeah yeah yeah, laugh it up... haha. I deserve it for that no doubt. I'm just still stuck in the previous two winters when everything would come just far enough NW for SNE and the coastal plain of NNE, then halt of move back SE. I know Rick/Logan11 knows what I'm talking about, haha. I guess this is what happens with no blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 b1TCH SLAP You could sense him trying to steal some excitement and Scooter Scrooge just slammed the door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Nothing slips the grasp of your intellect, does it. lol Nope, always learning. And I did not stay at a Holiday Inn last night either so its pretty remarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 there's a short window really close to dawn when guidance brings a potent LLJ across the island...nothing you haven't experienced before but definitely some strong SW winds...sustained 30 to 40 type stuff for a brief window. then yes, NW. Cool. Thanks. FYI. Not sure if you saw this a couple months back but, here's my wx station out here. http://www.weatherlink.com/user/stormsurf/index.php?view=summary&headers=1 I took careful consideration in the siting of it so it should be pretty accurate. Cheers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Yeah yeah yeah, laugh it up... haha. I deserve it for that no doubt. I'm just still stuck in the previous two winters when everything would come just far enough NW for SNE and the coastal plain of NNE, then halt of move back SE. I know Rick/Logan11 knows what I'm talking about, haha. I guess this is what happens with no blocking. I know what you mean....just bustn'. Even when you are conscious of positive changes, you are conditioned to expect the worst when coming off of some dissapointments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I know what you mean....just bustn'. Even when you are conscious of positive changes, you are conditioned to expect the worst when coming off of some dissapointments. Yeah I know SNE'ers had a lot of that following the '09-'10 winter. Last winter when the storms started creeping north and west on models to include not only just Mid-Atlantic but SNE, everyone sort of expected *something* to happen and have it go out to sea leaving heavy snow only NYC southward. You need a couple storms to wash out the bad taste from some previous winters worth of storm tracks leaving you on the outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 storm gets down to 943mb at hr 42 pattern changer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Yeah I know SNE'ers had a lot of that following the '09-'10 winter. Last winter when the storms started creeping north and west on models to include not only just Mid-Atlantic but SNE, everyone sort of expected *something* to happen and have it go out to sea leaving heavy snow only NYC southward. You need a couple storms to wash out the bad taste from some previous winters worth of storm tracks leaving you on the outside. I actually just had that moving through the 2nd half of '09-'10 and it worked out, unfortunately lol......I had turned the page heading into '10-'11 and was expecting a winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Cool. Thanks. FYI. Not sure if you saw this a couple months back but, here's my wx station out here. http://www.weatherli...mmary&headers=1 I took careful consideration in the siting of it so it should be pretty accurate. Cheers cool, thanks. yeah i do remember seeing that but forgot to bookmark. i never understand why Davis decides to have the console "make a forecast." That's the dumbest thing. this $500 piece of fairly high-end scientific equipment produces a kindergarten weather forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rocket Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Quick questions: When looking at Allan's 12z NAM for the Northeast Region I see Snow Accumulation and 24 hour Precip. I understand the one is for snow and the other for snow and rain. How do you determine when the changeover will happen? When looking at the Snow Accumulations there are Parameters for 0, 6, 12, 18, etc. hours. The images show one inch snow accumulation. Does this mean within that six hours or storm totals? So if there are three images that show one inch is that three inches or just one? This one is right on the edge for us. To plow or salt? That is the question. I'm thinking that downtown Worcester might have to be plowed, Westborough maybe, and Marlborough undecided. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 C~weats RUC in line with other guidance so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 cool, thanks. yeah i do remember seeing that but forgot to bookmark. i never understand why Davis decides to have the console "make a forecast." That's the dumbest thing. this $500 piece of fairly high-end scientific equipment produces a kindergarten weather forecast. I agree.....it looks like a forecast straight out of Tolland heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Yup it looked like it went a hair east/colder.. what a race this will be.. and certainly it will be awesome to follow from the met standpoint! Hopefully things keep ticking east at 18z and 00z, then it's HRRR/ RUC/ nowcast time... Much better to have rain changing to snow instead of snow changing to rain. I always agree violently with this sentiment. Not just because I want snow on the ground but watching the transition is one of my favorite weenie delights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 b1TCH SLAP You could sense him trying to steal some excitement and Scooter Scrooge just slammed the door. It actually looks like the GFS may try for an inch or two there, but for his sake...I would just keep expectations low. If he lived near 1000ft, that would be a little different. GFS actually gets Kevin to Will pretty good for 1-2 hrs. It's all dependent on where and how developed that comma head is, which sometimes is not always handled properly. I think HubbDave could sneak maybe a couple of inches...or 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Quick questions: When looking at Allan's 12z NAM for the Northeast Region I see Snow Accumulation and 24 hour Precip. I understand the one is for snow and the other for snow and rain. How do you determine when the changeover will happen? When looking at the Snow Accumulations there are Parameters for 0, 6, 12, 18, etc. hours. The images show one inch snow accumulation. Does this mean within that six hours or storm totals? So if there are three images that show one inch is that three inches or just one? If you get 3 inches I'll eat my shorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I agree.....it looks like a forecast straight out of Tolland heights. it's stupid. it'll tell you how much solar radiation you are receiving, but also tell you "it's raining cats and dogs" not that it matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 It actually looks like the GFS may try for an inch or two there, but for his sake...I would just keep expectations low. If he lived near 1000ft, that would be a little different. GFS actually gets Kevin to Will pretty good for 1-2 hrs. It's all dependent on where and how developed that comma head is, which sometimes is not always handled properly. I think HubbDave could sneak maybe a couple of inches...or 3. Clips Ray's hood too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 C~weats RUC in line with other guidance so far. Now that is actually concerning to me, haha. I'd rather not have the RUC on my side lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Well folks a bit of good news, just went to the sugar house cam at okemo, and its snowing lightly, well ahead of schedule, that cant be all bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 cool, thanks. yeah i do remember seeing that but forgot to bookmark. i never understand why Davis decides to have the console "make a forecast." That's the dumbest thing. this $500 piece of fairly high-end scientific equipment produces a kindergarten weather forecast. No kidding. Right? Pretty lame. Lol. Anyway, got friggin' soaked out scalloping this morning. Probably too much wind to fish tomorrow. We'll see. I didn't realize the storm is supposed to bomb out so much. Should be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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