Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 There just aint no way your gonna get a guy like me or ray to move away from civilization and proximity to boston sports... unless forcibly (me) Same here, if I move for snow I'll just end it and move to north central canada and study the mating patterns of polar bears on drugs or something. Felt for a few days it would be this run this morning that would stick the landing. Everything else has been foreplay. NAM is processing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Through 9 hours the NAM is a slight hair warmer in NE in terms of thicknesses 1000-500. Maybe a smidge colder by 12 in the borderline regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Why are all of the models trying to give us so much qpf on the backside as the system pulls up into the gulf of maine. They all do it too. They have the center about to make landfall at Maine/Canadian Border and we are still getting plastered with qpf. Knowing how our systems work and like to shut down very quickly on the backside as the center pulls away I am having a hard time believing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 NAM may be a bit faster again, but I don't see a big change in the solution from 06z at first glance. I'm waiting for the more detailed stuff to update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 NAM may be a bit faster again, but I don't see a big change in the solution from 06z at first glance. I'm waiting for the more detailed stuff to update. It went a few miles east with the surface low... the last 24 hour SE shift. Not enough to matter for most but you really only remember it when you're on the edge of something and it starts slipping east a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Why are all of the models trying to give us so much qpf on the backside as the system pulls up into the gulf of maine. They all do it too. They have the center about to make landfall at Maine/Canadian Border and we are still getting plastered with qpf. Knowing how our systems work and like to shut down very quickly on the backside as the center pulls away I am having a hard time believing this. they aren't really. there's a small comma head but it's mostly that those are 6 hour qpf progs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Through 9 hours the NAM is a slight hair warmer in NE in terms of thicknesses 1000-500. Maybe a smidge colder by 12 in the borderline regions. The Nam def. Went a hair east and colder on this run.. hopefully the start of the ticks SE until the storm begins.. it actually looks more positively tilted on this run compared to 00z and 06z too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Nam is se and cooler, hugs the coast then south of long island begins to feel the polar vortex and slides ene from there much like yesterdays Euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 warm rain changing over to a cold rain before ending here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 It's tough to tell if it went se, or that it's faster, because it is a little faster this run. Either way, I don't see a different outcome. Still looks about the same to me right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Definitely going to be some strong winds tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 It's tough to tell if it went se, or that it's faster, because it is a little faster this run. Either way, I don't see a different outcome. Still looks about the same to me right now. yeah that's my feeling. it's basically splitting hairs at this point...10 to 15 mile shifts here and there. and of course "as modeled" will never equate to exactly what happens anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 It's tough to tell if it went se, or that it's faster, because it is a little faster this run. Either way, I don't see a different outcome. Still looks about the same to me right now. Not enough to change anything Definitely going to be some strong winds tomorrow morning. Could be quite gusty along the coast and just inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Why are all of the models trying to give us so much qpf on the backside as the system pulls up into the gulf of maine. They all do it too. They have the center about to make landfall at Maine/Canadian Border and we are still getting plastered with qpf. Knowing how our systems work and like to shut down very quickly on the backside as the center pulls away I am having a hard time believing this. Interesting to go back and look at the old solutions that had this thing trying to generate precip as it pulled away. Goes to show even on the GFS fantasy ranges there's always a whisper of truth. The Nam def. Went a hair east and colder on this run.. hopefully the start of the ticks SE until the storm begins.. it actually looks more positively tilted on this run compared to 00z and 06z too Compared to the 0z I don't see that really, just some timing differences. The border regions will be decided at gametime. This is a wash - literally for most of us. As in car and road washing rains. It's tough to tell if it went se, or that it's faster, because it is a little faster this run. Either way, I don't see a different outcome. Still looks about the same to me right now. I agree 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Looks like around 4am or so, it could be snowing heavy from Kevin and Will on north and west. Maybe an hour later for BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Rick is going to get hit good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 warm rain changing over to a cold rain before ending here Really? Even with the 0 line through, and dynamic cooling? I don't look at surface plots and stuff, so maybe too much warm air hangs into the lower levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Rick is going to get hit good. Yep, it's his turn. Looks like around 4am or so, it could be snowing heavy from Kevin and Will on north and west. Maybe an hour later for BOS. Def will cool enough but the system is thundering through at that point. May have a nice little band on the SW side or it may be like snowtober. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Why are all of the models trying to give us so much qpf on the backside as the system pulls up into the gulf of maine. They all do it too. They have the center about to make landfall at Maine/Canadian Border and we are still getting plastered with qpf. Knowing how our systems work and like to shut down very quickly on the backside as the center pulls away I am having a hard time believing this. It only appears that way because the system is moving so fast. That qpf is probably falling in the first 2-4 hrs of the 6hr total, long before the SLP center makes it to Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 1.1" of qpf here after the 0C 850 line crosses at 0Z.... Certainly won't have a problem verifying the advisory. 35.6/34 now.... It went a few miles east with the surface low... the last 24 hour SE shift. Not enough to matter for most but you really only remember it when you're on the edge of something and it starts slipping east a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I'm going to climb the mountain this afternoon looking to see if the changeover has reached the peaks. I'm thinking 4-8 in town 6-12 on the mountain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Really? Even with the 0 line through, and dynamic cooling? I don't look at surface plots and stuff, so maybe too much warm air hangs into the lower levels. Most of the precip will be long gone by then, I would be surprised if we ended up with anything but a few slushy flakes at the end, By the time we cool, The low is out towards eastport, We never see backside snows here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Looks like around 4am or so, it could be snowing heavy from Kevin and Will on north and west. Maybe an hour later for BOS. At this point it doesn't really matter at this point. I'm hoping for a last minute shift and surprise.. I'm fully invested in this storm and if it doesn't work out, it doesn't work out.. I'm hoping this is the one time that a storm surprises people and will and Scott are going "wtf is happening"... would you rather analyze the euro torchlies or hope that something effed up happens? Whether its 4"/he snows to end, a 70mph wind gust, flash flooding.. who knows As will and Scott said yesterday, that is one strong vortmax and its passing right under LI sound. Here's to hoping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Could be fun at ACK late tonight...maybe even Phil. The maybe 50kt nw gusts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Hey PF, are you buying BTV's conservative approach? they have only eastern and southern VT under advisories and only 3" here? Buy with class, just wondering whats up with that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Rick is going to get hit good. That's certainly a relief, isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 At this point it doesn't really matter at this point. I'm hoping for a last minute shift and surprise.. I'm fully invested in this storm and if it doesn't work out, it doesn't work out.. I'm hoping this is the one time that a storm surprises people and will and Scott are going "wtf is happening"... would you rather analyze the euro torchlies or hope that something effed up happens? Whether its 4"/he snows to end, a 70mph wind gust, flash flooding.. who knows As will and Scott said yesterday, that is one strong vortmax and its passing right under LI sound. Here's to hoping I'd like the vortmax a little further se, but we have no choice. It's better than having cirrus and 60 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I'm going to climb the mountain this afternoon looking to see if the changeover has reached the peaks. I'm thinking 4-8 in town 6-12 on the mountain. Thats what i have on a map for a line from Bingham NE to just North of Caribou Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 That's certainly a relief, isn't it? I lost sleep overnight just thinking about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I lost sleep overnight just thinking about it. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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